As many of you know, I like to track everything and predict outcomes based on relative and overall strength, theories and a Ouija board. It works best in keeper leagues, where team salaries can have a range of $30 mil, but this format and the $50 mil league the defenses tend to be closer to similar and the relative skill scores comprise a smaller range. Additionally, with this league the defenses are overly strong based on IRL NFL seasons. If you spend 50% on your defense here, your offense will suffer, and you can’t put up as many points against stingy defenses. The result is often that expensive defenses don’t carry the team to the playoffs. In other leagues line skill scores above 60 tend to help, but here they need to be 80ish to have an impact. The model therefor will have a handful of teams that have W/L records exactly opposite of what I would expect and I will hedge my bets as outlined below.
| Team |
Raw scores |
Rank on Raw |
2QB 2RB 4WR 2TE |
W/L Record Projected |
Outcome In question |
| Run.. Run.. Bomb! |
19 |
11 |
3 |
13-3 |
2-3 |
| Oval Office |
5 |
18 |
21 |
1-15 |
1-3 |
| Brett's Buccs |
16 |
6 |
13 |
6-10 |
2-2 |
| Roll'in Thunder |
12 |
3 |
1 |
16-0 |
5-0 |
| You Need To Calm Down |
18 |
23 |
24 |
0-16 |
0-3 |
| The Low Spark of High-Heeled |
15 |
15 |
12 |
8-8 |
2-1 |
| Just Goffing |
2 |
4 |
5 |
12-4 |
1-4 |
| Walker-Welker-Walker |
7 |
12 |
19 |
3-13 |
3-1 |
| Rocky Mountain Highlanders |
13 |
16 |
15 |
4-12 |
2-4 |
| Sigmunds Raiders |
23 |
8 |
11 |
9-7 |
4-0 |
| Metropolitans |
1 |
2 |
2 |
15-1 |
4-1 |
| Keep it close Carson |
9 |
7 |
4 |
12-4 |
3-4 |
| MAY NANCES |
6 |
1 |
8 |
13-3 |
3-3 |
| Russell's Jets |
17 |
13 |
20 |
2-14 |
2-5 |
| St. Louis Blues |
11 |
17 |
18 |
4-12 |
4-3 |
| Blues Travelers |
20 |
9 |
9 |
10-6 |
2-6 |
| The Shortest Yard |
24 |
20 |
22 |
1-15 |
1-4 |
| Yogis Rocket Rangers |
22 |
19 |
17 |
6-10 |
5-4 |
| By George !!! |
3 |
5 |
16 |
8-8 |
5-3 |
| 91 And Counting |
14 |
24 |
14 |
9-7 |
5-2 |
| Lawyers, Guns, and Money |
21 |
21 |
10 |
10-6 |
1-6 |
| Gotham Hitmen |
4 |
10 |
6 |
16-0 |
6-0 |
| Fouts Focus Group |
10 |
22 |
23 |
0-16 |
0-3 |
| Hyper Turbo GoGoGo |
8 |
14 |
7 |
14-2 |
5-2 |
Teams are sorted by division.
The first column is sorted by the sum total of all of team and player skills, ranked 1-24 for all teams (most pts to least pts).
The second column ranks the sum total of 7 positions, compared to all teams (QBP+RB/WR/TE rec + OLP; QBR+RB/WR/TE run + OLR; ST/K/P; OL sack; D int+sack; D red+drive; D vs P+R)
The third is same as second, but considers only top 100 DUR of QB, 200 DUR of RB, 400 DUR of WR, 200 DUR of TE. Based on these ratings and our schedule, the W/L column would result.
The record column is what I’m going with, as it the result of many casts of the bones, smoke and mirrors, mathematical gyrations and a small djinni that resides on my shoulder. The outcomes in question are games where the teams are closely ranked (ranked within 5 of opponent’s rank) and could go either way. For example, picking on MAY NANCES, I look for them to go 13-3. Because of close games, he might not win 3 of them and go 10-6, but could just as easily not lose 3 games against equal teams and go 16-0. Similarly, By George! is so middle of the pack playing other middle of the pack teams he could win 13 or lose 11 when the dust settles. Easiest schedule – By George!, hardest schedule – You Need To Calm Down.
It looks like the AFC overall is tougher than the NFC.
Abbreviations for season IRL: QB/RBR(uns), QBC(ompletions), QBA(ttempts), RCG(completions of top 2 RB, 4 WR, 2TE), R/G C/G QA/G QC/G are run, caught pass and completions thrown per game. If you happen to max out and match IRL some comparisons bring areas to light. I consider 2-3 catches per game as weak and 6 as strong. Less than 20 carries per game is weak for a starting RB.
AFCE
Roll'in Thunder 16-0 #1 seed
QB/RBR 531 QBC 341 QBA 505 RCG 315
R/G 34 QC/G 21 QA/G 33 C/G 19
2-1-2 strongest set favor run, game plan 34 run 33 pass plays, team catches < QB completions. RBs 2 QB targets per game. Depth and injury issues with WR/TE . Strong OL and D, better vs run, weak ST and P, decent K .
Honestly, nobody goes 16-0 with this kind of parity. 17th rated passing game, 3rd run game.
Run.. Run.. Bomb! 13-3 #4 seed
QB/RBR 350 QBC 237 QBA 392 RCG 230
R/G 22 QC/G 21 QA/G 24 C/G 17
1-3-1 strongest set with weak #3 leaning pass, game plan 22 run 24 pass plays, team catches < QB completions. Depth and injury issues with WR/TE . RBs 2 QB targets per game. Strong and balanced OL and D, expensive ST P and K .
22nd rated passing game, 4th run game, 19th OL sack.
Brett's Buccs 6-10
QB/RBR 190 QBC 363 QBA 531 RCG 330
R/G 12 QC/G 22 QA/G 33 C/G 23
1-3-1 strongest set with weak #3 heavy pass, game plan 12 run 33 pass plays. Depth and injury issues with WR4/TE . RBs 1 QB targets per game. Pass leaning OL and D, weak ST P and K .
21st rated passing game, 22nd run game, 18th OL sack, 2nd overall D.
Oval Office 1-15
QB/RBR 750 QBC 265 QBA 401 RCG 540
R/G 47 QC/G 17 QA/G 33 C/G 44
Any set possible, must favor run, game plan 47 run 33 pass plays. RBs 8 QB targets per game. Weak balanced D, OL weak on pass, on the weak side for ST P and K .
2nd rated passing game, 2nd run game, 19th OL sack.
AFCC
Just Goffing 12-4 #3 seed
QB/RBR 480 QBC 382 QBA 587 RCG 336
R/G 30 QC/G 25 QA/G 35 C/G 21
1-3-1 strongest set leaning pass, game plan 30 run 35 pass plays, team catches < QB completions. RBs 1.5 QB targets per game. Top 10 D, better against run, OL stronger passing, weak ST P and K .
21st rated runing game, 6th pass game, 2nd OL sack.
The Low Spark of High-Heeled 8-8
QB/RBR 430 QBC 396 QBA 572 RCG 340
R/G 27 QC/G 25 QA/G 35 C/G 22
1-3-1 strongest set with weak #3 leaning pass, game plan 27 run 35 pass plays, team catches < QB completions. Depth and injury issues with WR4/TE . RBs 2.5 QB targets per game. Average and balanced D, average ST cheap P and good K .
12th rated passing game, 7th run game, 20th red zone, 16th disruptive (D sack & int).
Walker-Welker-Walker 3-13
QB/RBR 460 QBC 395 QBA 552 RCG 360
R/G 28 QC/G 24 QA/G 34 C/G 26
1-3-1 strongest set leaning run, game plan 28 run 34 pass plays, team catches = QB completions. Depth and injury issues with WR. RBs 5 QB targets per game. Strong run OL and weak run D, below average ST P and K .
12th rated passing game, 7th run game, 21st OL sack, 22nd D skills .
You Need To Calm Down 0-16
QB/RBR 420 QBC 477 QBA 699 RCG 520
R/G 33 QC/G 30 QA/G 43 C/G 35
1-3-1 strongest set with weak #3 leaning pass, game plan 33 run 43 pass plays, team catches > QB completions. RBs 11 QB targets per game. Average and balanced OL, better passing and average D, weaker vs pass, cheap ST P and decent K .
15th rated passing game, 20th run game, average D.
Nobody goes 0-16 either, but this doesn’t look like a playoff team.
AFCW
Metropolitans 15-1 #2 seed
QB/RBR 500 QBC 244 QBA 417 RCG 260
R/G 32 QC/G 15 QA/G 26 C/G 18
1-3-1 strongest set with weak #3 leaning pass, game plan 32 run 26 pass plays, team catches = QB completions. RBs 1 QB targets per game. OL strong run/weak pass and D balanced and disruptive, weak ST and average or below P K .
18th rated passing game, 1st run game, 24th OL sack.
Keep it close Carson 12-4 #5 seed
QB/RBR 355 QBC 342 QBA 537 RCG 280
R/G 22 QC/G 21 QA/G 33 C/G 17
2-2-1 strongest set with weak #3 leaning pass, game plan 22 run 33 pass plays, team catches < QB completions. RBs 4 QB targets per game. Strong OL +P, and balanced D better vs pass, average or below ST P and K .
4th rated passing game, 18th run game, average defense.
Sigmunds Raiders 9-7 #6 seed
QB/RBR 390 QBC 425 QBA 606 RCG 220
R/G 25 QC/G 25 QA/G 37 C/G 23
1-2-2 strongest set with weak #3 leaning pass, game plan 25 run 37 pass plays, team catches < QB completions. Depth and injury issues with WR3. RBs 4 QB targets/game. Strong pass OL and D better vs pass, below average ST P and K .
19th rated passing game, 19th run game, 5th OL sack.
Rocky Mountain Highlanders 4-12
QB/RBR 450 QBC 188 QBA 326 RCG 230
R/G 25 QC/G 12 QA/G 20 C/G 17
1-3-1 strongest set with weak #3 leaning pass, game plan 25 run 20 pass plays, team catches = QB completions. Depth and injury issues with WR/TE . RBs 1.5 QB targets per game. Strong balanced OL and average balanced D, expensive ST and average P K .
24th rated passing game, 8th run game, 19th OL sack.
NFCE
MAY NANCES 13-3 #2 seed
QB/RBR 430 QBC 362 QBA 584 RCG 290
R/G 27 QC/G 23 QA/G 36 C/G 19
1-3-1 strongest set with weak #4 leaning pass, game plan 27 run 36 pass plays, team catches < QB completions. RBs 0.5 QB targets per game. Balanced OL and average balanced D, expensive ST P and average K .
8th rated passing game, 11th run game, 17th OL sack.
Blues Travelers 10-6 #5 seed
QB/RBR 500 QBC 196 QBA 352 RCG 230
R/G 31 QC/G 12 QA/G 22 C/G 16
2-2-1 strongest set with weak #3 leaning pass, game plan 31 run 22 pass plays, team catches = QB completions. Depth and injury issues with WR/TE . RBs 1 QB targets per game. Stronger run OL and average D better vs pass, expensive ST P and average K .
23rd rated passing game, 15th run game, 19th OL sack.
St. Louis Blues 4-12
QB/RBR 523 QBC 222 QBA 303 RCG 350
R/G 35 QC/G 14 QA/G 19 C/G 22
2-2-1 strongest set with weak #3 leaning pass, game plan 35 run 19 pass plays, team catches = QB completions. RBs 7.5 QB targets per game. Strong pass weak run OL and below average balanced D, expensive ST P and great K .
5th rated passing game, 17th run game, 22nd D skills.
Russell's Jets 2-14
QB/RBR 508 QBC 341 QBA 516 RCG 400
R/G 33 QC/G 22 QA/G 32 C/G 27
1-3-1 strongest set with weak #3 leaning pass, game plan 33 run 32 pass plays, team catches = QB completions. Depth and injury issues with WR4/TE . RBs 3 QB targets per game. Strongest run OL and D weak vs run, strong vs pass, average ST and beloe average P K .
20th rated passing game, 5th run game, 22nd OL sack.
NFCC
91 And Counting 9-7 #3 seed
QB/RBR 550 QBC 375 QBA 558 RCG 455
R/G 34 QC/G 24 QA/G 35 C/G 29
1-2-2 strongest set with weak #3 leaning pass, game plan 34 run 35 pass plays, team catches = QB completions. Depth and injury issues with WR4. RBs 5 QB targets per game. Weak run strong passing OL and average balanced D, weak ST P and decent K.
10th rated passing game, 6th run game, 2nd D skills.
By George !!! 8-8
QB/RBR 700 QBC 290 QBA 521 RCG 350
R/G 44 QC/G 17 QA/G 33 C/G 24
2-2-1 strongest set with favor run, game plan 44 run 33 pass plays, team catches = QB completions. RBs 2 QB targets per game. Stronger pass OL and average D weak vs run strong vs pass, cheap ST and average P K .
14th rated passing game, 16th run game, 19th D skills.
The Shortest Yard 1-15
QB/RBR 400 QBC 388 QBA 549 RCG 360
R/G 25 QC/G 24 QA/G 36 C/G 24
1-3-1 strongest set leaning pass, game plan 25 run 36 pass plays, team catches = QB completions. Depth and injury issues with RB. RBs 2 QB targets per game. Stronger run OL and average balanced D, average ST P and great K .
16th rated passing game, 23rd run game, 16th OL sack, 19th D skills.
NFCW
Gotham Hitmen 16-0 #1 seed
QB/RBR 515 QBC 414 QBA 606 RCG 390
R/G 34 QC/G 26 QA/G 38 C/G 26
1-3-1 strongest set with leaning pass, game plan 34 run 38 pass plays, team catches = QB completions. RBs 1 QB targets per game. Weak run OL strong passing and below average balanced D, expensive ST decent K weak P.
1st rated passing game, 13th run game, 1st OL sack.
Hyper Turbo GoGoGo 14-2 #4 seed
QB/RBR 320 QBC 325 QBA 499 RCG 230
R/G 20 QC/G 20 QA/G 31 C/G 15
1-3-1 strongest set leaning pass, game plan 20 run 31 pass plays, team catches < QB completions. Depth and injury issues with TE. RBs 2 QB targets per game. Stronger run OL and D strong vs run, expensive ST K and below average P.
9th rated passing game, 9th run game, 1st D skills, 24th red zone/drive.
Lawyers, Guns, and Money 10-6 #6 seed
QB/RBR 342 QBC 388 QBA 596 RCG 320
R/G 21 QC/G 24 QA/G 37 C/G 22
2-2-1 strongest set with weak #3 favor pass, game plan 21 run 37 pass plays, team catches < QB completions. Depth and injury issues with WR/TE . RBs 5 QB targets per game. Strong pass weak run OL and D weak vs run strong vs pass, average ST decent K, cheap P .
10th rated passing game, 23rd run game.
Fouts Focus Group 0-16
QB/RBR 480 QBC 360 QBA 609 RCG 375
R/G 30 QC/G 22 QA/G 38 C/G 24
1-3-1 strongest set leaning pass, game plan 30 run 38 pass plays, team catches = QB completions. Depth and injury issues with WR/TE . RBs 4 QB targets per game. Stronger run OL and weak D especially vs run, average ST P and K .
14th rated passing game, 15th run game, 24th D skills.
Keep in mind when you’re celebrating a 15 stamina WR that has 3 catches in a preseason game that preseason performances don’t include fatigue and injuries
11/22/2023 7:43 PM (edited)