screwing power teams! Topic

tropicana
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Quote: Originally Posted By tropicana on 12/15/2009Obama's health care plan is terrible, this update sucks
Swamp, you're referring to this post? You're kidding me, right?
12/15/2009 8:32 PM
eayappert
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This post could not be converted. To view the original post's thread, click here.
12/15/2009 9:51 PM
schedule1
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if the probabilities are independent, which i'd say they're not.
12/15/2009 10:02 PM
eayappert
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Fair enough. Do you prefer to revert to plague's approach of adding up the OBPs of the first 3 hitters, and this conclusion?:

"That is a 1.034 OBP which means 1 of the first 3 guys would get on base."

Or do you want to provide an alternative analysis - some Markov chain simulation that will change the 2nd or 3rd significant digit in these probabilities?

I could have asked plague to provide the Tigers' OBPs in bases empty situations, I suppose, or used aggregate league average figures to adjust the OBPs downward ( http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/324) by about .010 or so, which further reduces the probability of at least one runner reaching base by ~1.5%.
12/15/2009 10:38 PM
swamphawk22
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And my original statement was "Odds are one of the first three guys are going to get on base"

I stand by that statement!
12/16/2009 1:02 AM
snake_p
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Quote: Originally Posted By snake_p on 12/10/2009
Get it right. Only about 29.67% of the time will all three guys (OBP = .333) fail to get on base. One or more will reach base about 70.33% of the time.
Quote: Originally Posted By swamphawk22 on 12/16/2009
And my original statement was "Odds are one of the first three guys are going to get on base"
I stand by that statement!

Quote: Originally Posted By snake_p on 12/15/2009

Quote: Originally Posted By swamphawk22 on 12/15/2009
So we all agree it sucks. Did we all write to WIS and let them know?
If by "we all" you mean a small group of 2-5 people, you finally got it right.


OMG! Swamp sort of got TWO things right in the same month ... hell, in the same thread! Swampster, get thee to Las Vegas pronto, you're on a roll!
12/16/2009 9:49 AM
robproc
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Whenever I see "snake-p", I think of when Stewie said he'd like to be named "Snake Griffin."

Regardless, I still think the update has negatively affected some really good hitters.
12/16/2009 10:32 AM
disaacs
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Quote: Originally Posted By tropicana on 12/15/2009
Obama's health care plan is terrible, this update sucks.



Last time I checked, the President didn't write the health care plan bill. So, maybe you should transfer your disgust to the people who actually wrote the bill.

But, on topic, I have a 78 power hitter who generally averaged about 25-28 HRs per year. He has 3 HRs and we're just slightly over halfway through the season. This update sucks.
12/16/2009 10:40 AM
crickett13
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League averages from 2 leagues in the playoffs now

Capra

Season 13 AB 5760 AVG 271 HR 233 OPS 783

Season 14 AB 5739 Avg 279 HR 214 OPS 770

12 players hit 45 or more HR's 6 of those topped 50 and the top 3 were 57,56 and 2 with 55

Mattingly

Season 10 AB 5748 AVG 268 HR 221 OPS 770

Season 11 AB 5753 AVG 266 HR 206 OPS 755

8 players hit 46 or more HR's (nobody had 45) 4 hit 50+ the top 3 were 63.62 and 55

Note there have been other seasons in these leagues where there was a similar or even larger drop off in these numbers.

In MLB only 5 players topped 40 this season and nobody topped 50.

Soooo....... Swamp is right that it is still not correct. Clearly too many homeruns are still being hit in HBD!!!
12/16/2009 12:00 PM
robproc
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So basically, your leagues were well underway before the update was implemented.
12/16/2009 1:01 PM
crickett13
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about 60 games in which still makes it a more valid statistical snapshot than. I have 3 players in slumps!!!
12/16/2009 1:28 PM
robproc
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Is it not possible that the update is affecting some players it shouldn't?
12/16/2009 3:57 PM
swamphawk22
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There are always people that will take a position in these debates and not let up. Usually the system is right and anyone complaining is a whiner.

This is clearly a problem.
12/16/2009 5:06 PM
schedule1
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Quote: Originally posted by eayappert on 12/15/2009Fair enough. Do you prefer to revert to plague's approach of adding up the OBPs of the first 3 hitters, and this conclusion?:

no

Or do you want to provide an alternative analysis - some Markov chain simulation that will change the 2nd or 3rd significant digit in these probabilities?

no

I could have asked plague to provide the Tigers' OBPs in bases empty situations, I suppose, or used aggregate league average figures to adjust the OBPs downward ( http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/324) by about .010 or so, which further reduces the probability of at least one runner reaching base by ~1.5%.

thanks, though.
12/16/2009 5:11 PM
plague
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Quote: Originally posted by schedule1 on 12/16/2009
Quote: Originally posted by eayappert on 12/15/2009Fair enough. Do you prefer to revert to plague's approach of adding up the OBPs of the first 3 hitters, and this conclusion?:
no

Or do you want to provide an alternative analysis - some Markov chain simulation that will change the 2nd or 3rd significant digit in these probabilities?

no

I could have asked plague to provide the Tigers' OBPs in bases empty situations, I suppose, or used aggregate league average figures to adjust the OBPs downward ( http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/324) by about .010 or so, which further reduces the probability of at least one runner reaching base by ~1.5%.
thanks, though.

Was the debate with only the first inning in mind? If its not only about the first inning then showing stats with the bases empty would be a waste of my time. Even if its 70-80% range like you suggest, does that not say odds are that 1 of the first 3 batters will get on base?




In my opinion the player with the ability to drive in runs while getting on base should bat third, a player like George Brett. Guys like Frank Thomas and Albert Belle would be your prototype 4th hitters.
12/16/2009 5:43 PM
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