Ash killed my dream of a three peat so now he is my mortal enemy.

Ben getting that third playoff team also sucked.

Posted by ashamael on 8/29/2022 4:17:00 PM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 8/29/2022 3:20:00 PM (view original):

Posted by ncmusician_7 on 8/29/2022 2:43:00 PM (view original):
If my world 4 team had went 43-39 instead of 42-40, I'd have 5 teams in the playoffs instead of 4. It is what it is.

3 of us were in that exact same boat in the exact same world.

10 teams in the East of that world finished .500 or better. Ten. Holy ****.

not it....

Scores tab opened.

Posted by robusk on 8/30/2022 11:18:00 AM (view original):
Scores tab opened.

Small correction - I'm as disappointed about this as you are, but I didn't actually earn any first round byes

Posted by raggedclaws on 8/30/2022 12:26:00 PM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 8/30/2022 11:18:00 AM (view original):
Scores tab opened.

Small correction - I'm as disappointed about this as you are, but I didn't actually earn any first round byes

Corrected, it was double counting the tie in W5.

Excited that 4 of my 5 teams are in the playoffs. ****** off that the one that didn't lost out by ONE STINKIN' GAME!

W4 was a real lynchpin.

Got lucky to have 3 teams that were 5 or 6 seeds go 12-1 in the first round of the playoffs. Two series between ash and me that will be critical - one where he's a huge favorite and one that's basically a toss-up.

We opened round 2 by shitting the bed in a big way.

I'd say the betting odds right now are something like:
tarheel +225
ash +300
ben +400
raggedclaws +900
rob +900
jcred +2000

Not sure there are any other teams who can get enough points to win... I only took a very quick glance at this though, so I could definitely be wrong.

Here's how things look to me as we enter the conference finals:

• My teams have overperformed in the playoffs while ash's have underperformed. With a slight lead and extra team still in the playoffs, I think I've overtaken ash as the favorite, though his remaining team is very much capable of winning it all and delivering him the crown.
• With two teams left each, and potentially as many as 72 additional points on the table, all of robusk, ben, raggedclaws, and jcred could still win the whole thing. But if either ash or I wins a title, it would be difficult (if not impossible) for anyone else to win.
• I'm not sure who I would say has the best chance among those four. Ben has the two best teams, period, left, so I'm inclined to say him, but he also is 10+ points behind robusk and raggedclaws. Jcred probably has the lowest odds of anyone still technically in contention because he has the lowest point total so far.
• Unless I'm missing something I don't think anyone else other than the six I've mentioned has a chance of winning. (Robusk can correct me if I'm wrong.)
• In terms of handicapping title odds, I would say (based on nothing but eyeballing it): I have about a 45% chance of winning the crown, ash about 30%, and the other four split the last 25%.

Ha, I had that all typed out on my computer and forgot to hit "submit" so hadn't seen robusk's post before I made mine. Looks like robusk and I are generally on the same page except he sets Ben's chances higher than I do and mine lower. I think he may be right about that; I suspect I am underrating the fact that ben's two remaining teams are the best bets to win titles of anyone's teams. But unless I'm getting my math wrong, ben's only path to Savage Champ is to win titles in both leagues, which would give him 346 points. If he wins the title with one and loses in game 7 with the other, that gives him 15 more playoff wins (30 points) and a title (20 points) which leaves him one short of my current point total.

Posted by tarheel1991 on 9/7/2022 4:24:00 PM (view original):
Ha, I had that all typed out on my computer and forgot to hit "submit" so hadn't seen robusk's post before I made mine. Looks like robusk and I are generally on the same page except he sets Ben's chances higher than I do and mine lower. I think he may be right about that; I suspect I am underrating the fact that ben's two remaining teams are the best bets to win titles of anyone's teams. But unless I'm getting my math wrong, ben's only path to Savage Champ is to win titles in both leagues, which would give him 346 points. If he wins the title with one and loses in game 7 with the other, that gives him 15 more playoff wins (30 points) and a title (20 points) which leaves him one short of my current point total.

If you win in W1 you are almost guaranteed to be the champ. I actually think you and Rob both underrated your odds.

For me to win, I need to win both W3 and W5 (decent chance, but far from guaranteed, especially with the fatigue in W3), have you not win the championship in W1 (not looking good for me, but who knows), plus have you lose in this round of W4 (probable, but who knows).

I crashed & burned in the playoffs. I didn't expect to win any worlds, but I also expected to have 3-4 teams still in the mix after round 2. I have one & almost no shot at winning; even if tarheel loses in W1 (not likely), I have almost no shot of beating Ben in W5 with my only remaining team, and that's assuming I make it by ragged in the conference finals who, oh by the way, was 3-0 against me in the regular season with an average margin of victory of 16 points (3, 22, 23).