Posted by dBKC on 3/21/2021 8:17:00 PM (view original):
Evals part 1 (1-5):

1. cmcafeeky - LeBron James, Larry Nance, Robert Parish, Joakim Noah, Kevin Love, Kemba Walker, Kyle Anderson, Ed Davis, Paul Westphal, George Gervin, Caldwell Jones, Terrance Jones

What went right: obviously getting the best player in the SIM is a huge win. Larry Nance and Joakim Noah provide great front court D and allow you to hide a weak defender at PF since they can both switch and allow the PF to cover a SF or C if needed. Robert Parish and Kevin Love fit this role perfectly since their weak D will be hidden. Joakim Noah and Kevin Love provide an assists boost so that you can run Bron at PG. Kyle Anderson fits nicely in to all of that too. I dig all of that.

What might go wrong: is Kemba Bron’s backup all 5 seasons? I don’t really like that. Kemba doesn’t have 5 strong years and that’s going to cause some issues. Are Gervin and Westphal your SG rotation? I’d feel better about both coming off the bench.

If I could do one repick: I would’ve went with Deron Williams or Jrue Holiday over Robert Parish. That would’ve given you an upgrade at SG plus you could flex them to Bron’s backup, and you’d still have a Nance/Love/Noah frontcourt.

2. jhsukow - Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell, Kyrie Irving, Kobe Bryant, Paul Millsap, Otto Porter, J.R. Smith, Baron Davis, Eddie Jones, Mason Plumlee, Brandon Rush, Marquese Chriss

What went right: Loading up on high usage guards and shooting is a nice way to get the best out of Wilt (and allows you to use his lower usage seasons). Opponents are going to have a hard time figuring out to defend inside or outside with Wilt + shooters. Plumlee and Chriss and Millsap gives you a big rebounding advantage when they’re in.

What might go wrong: Spending a 2nd on Russell (and his low eFG) might put you in too big of a hole. Is Otto Porter playing SF (where you take a hit at rebounding), or SG (where you take a hit on passing)? Are the lower usage Rush and Jones backing up Kobe?

If I could redo one pick: I was tempted to put a Russell repick here but I’m not really sure if there was a better option on the board. I would’ve went with George Gervin over Eddie Jones because he’d be a pretty great Kobe backup.

3. jkaye24 - Steph Curry, Karl-Anthony Towns, Donyell Marshall, Pau Gasol, Paul Pressey, Derrick Favors, Richaun Holmes, Khris Middleton, Toni Kukoc, Jarrett Allen, Ivaka Zubac, Michael Ray Richardson

What went right: You’ve got tons of offense while also alternating string defenders with weak ones. While Steph and KAT aren’t ideal defenders: Donyell and Pressey and Favors and a few others cover nicely for them. Pressey is a great player as long as you have shooting to cover for him and well, you definitely have that covered. Some great late round steals like Zubac and Middleton and Jarrett Allen

What might go wrong: The D might not be strong enough to contend. I know Steph isn’t a horrible defender, but ideally you want him to be the worst defender on your team. Who is backing up Steph?...Michael Ray Richardson?

If I could redo one pick: I just don’t like Pau Gasol for this team. He’s not a strong enough defender to be the 3rd banana on a Steph/KAT team. I would’ve picked Kirilenko instead. He would instantly give you at least an average defense and could’ve helped with the passing too (he and Pressey would give great assists off the wings)

4. tarheel1991 - Shaquille O'Neal, Tyson Chandler, Mookie Blaylock, Jrue Holiday, Mike Conley, Anthony Mason, David West, Yao Ming, Bismack Boyombo, Gordon Hayward, Jonathon Isaac, Will Perdue

What went right: the 4th pick is tough because there’s no real clear cut option but I think you made the right call with Shaq. Looks like you were able to get enough shooting around him to capitalize. Yao is a clever Shaq backup.

What might go wrong: are you starting two PGs (Mookie and/or Jrue and/or Conley)? I don’t think Chandler and Shaq give you enough of a rebounding edge to afford to do that. Not sure if anyone on this squad aside from Shaq is that scary, you might see some double teams.

If I could do one pick over: would’ve went with Kyrie/Drexler at the 3/4 turn instead of Blaylock/Jrue. Still gives you the shooting but with more rebounding.

5. robusk - Dwight Howard, Shawn Marion, Kyle Lowry, Deron Williams, Sidney Moncrief, Chris Andersen, Kyle O'Quinn, Robert Covington, Mitchell Robinson, Chris Gatling, Rudy Gay, Nerlens Noel

What went right: you have lots of guys who need to move around or come of the bench for a season or two, and you’re the perfect owner to pull this puzzle off. Looks like you got enough shooting around Dwight. Between Lowry and Deron, you’ll have 5 great starting seasons at PG. The defense on this team is fantastic. That plus Dwight’s eFG should be a winning formula.

What might go wrong: Can you assemble all of these puzzle pieces in the right order? (Marion can play everywhere from SG to PF, which Marions do you pair with Deron and which ones with Lowry?)

If I could do one pick over: I don’t think I would’ve been able to resist pairing KAT (over Marion) with Dwight for a killer inside-outside combo that would punish teams that went with a weak defender at one of their frontcourt spots.

Bringing it to the next page. Sorry if there are typos. On mobile.

Hard to argue with any of that. Kirilenko was on short list but liked Marshall at SF to solidify the 3P approach, and he brings very good defense as well. My defensive average will be just shy of 70 on top 2 teams but closer to 60 on the other 3. It could get ugly if the bottom drops but the top 2 offenses are absolutely top shelf, designed to be league best - let’s see if that happens.

Richardson is just a minutes filler on the bottom 2 teams.

The top tier guards is Curry/Pressey/Middleton and Curry/Pressey/Kukoc rotations which cover all 96 min.

Good write up man. I found it hard to agree with anything you said on any times. With regards to:
"I don’t think I would’ve been able to resist pairing KAT (over Marion) with Dwight for a killer inside-outside combo that would punish teams that went with a weak defender at one of their frontcourt spots."

I stewed long and hard over this exact decision over and over again.

I’m guessing rob meant hard to disagree. Otherwise lol

Posted by ashamael on 3/22/2021 12:35:00 AM (view original):
I’m guessing rob meant hard to disagree. Otherwise lol

Correct. Phone typing.

Howard/Towns would have been killer. I think I would have done it in your shoes. I took Marion in almost the exact same spot in Savage 2 and regretted it, not because there's anything wrong with him (I love him) but because I had committed such a high pick to a mid-usage wing, which is just such a fungible commodity (even if Marion is an elite one). But I also had taken MJ in the first round in that draft, and I think it's a much better gamble when you already have an elite post or PG in the bag. (Marion's good D sometimes flexing to SG also allowed you to take guards who aren't elite defenders, and both Lowry and Deron were really good picks, IMO). I just think Towns would have been a higher upside pick (as I told you I even considered doing it with Shaq, and that would have been a much worse fit).

Also, good thoughts on my team, dBKC. I thought long and hard about Kyrie (and Kobe) in the 3rd; in the end I couldn't pull the trigger on Kyrie's weak D or Kobe's low efficiency, though ultimately I was closer to going with Kobe because of the psychological lure of the Shaq/Kobe pairing. I'm very much concerned about rebounding, even with Mason as the primary SF, which is how I ended up picking a guy like Will Perdue. The pick I actually regret the most is David West; not because I don't like him but because Anderson Varejao would have been a much better backup for Chandler than the Biyombo/Perdue combo, IMO.

In terms of the backcourt - most teams will be starting two PG, yes. I picked Hayward with exactly the concern you raised in mind; his 16-17, 18-19, and 19-20 seasons are all candidates to start for one of my teams (still have a lot of tinkering to do).

towns is tricky because that fifth season creates a huge minutes hole, and you'll have to be really strong defensively for the rest of the draft. Howard/Towns makes sense on paper and I probably would've done it too, but then I usually want to go for the sexy thing. Picking a non-defender in the 2nd is hard. I doubt I'll do it ever again.

I voted 58, but my two worst teams are hoping to do something like that at a much, much lower number

is 130 really something to overcome? I build all my squads at 120, sometimes 115. With low enough TOs that's all I've needed for my best squads

57 for any team is fantastic. For Savage you will average 130 and few teams will be able to keep up, provided that you don't land in a really tough division or end up with dh or something

Posted by bds9992 on 3/22/2021 10:21:00 AM (view original):
is 130 really something to overcome? I build all my squads at 120, sometimes 115. With low enough TOs that's all I've needed for my best squads

I view it at average maybe a tick above average but not something I expect to generate a huge extra advantage.

For context: my teams averaged 126.7 creb% last season and I finished 4th in rebounding. Iirc correctly, I think jhsukow was somewhere around 118 last season (could be faulty memory) and he finished 20th in rebounding.

@jkaye24: since data is no longer in the cloud for you to see (I had to archive it because the queries break when the teams expire)... don’t recall what your preseason numbers were but you finished 14th in creb% last season.