Another installment of the world’s greatest draft is in the books. Some day we need to do this draft live via Zoom call, and have 2 or 3 owners who are 16x16 veterans, but who are not participating, attend to provide running commentary. Maybe broadcast it on The Ocho.
As usual, stats shown for draftees and teammates in this writeup will be normalized. In addition to my commentary I’ll assign each of my picks a letter grade, and cite any additional notes I made with each pick.
Nomination –
1958 Johnny Callison (75 PA, .301/.356/.458, C/B, $561K)
“at least I’ll have a closer…”
When it was announced that divisional alignment would be based on order of nomination, I decided to hold off and name an outfielder late. I figured that while there wouldn’t be any super-onerous pitcher nominations because of the large blacklist, the pitchers would still be nominated first and yield somewhat of an advantage. But if I had realized that Holtzman was available I would’ve immediately jumped in with him. I could have SWORN that he had been used in the past. I would’ve bet large sums of money on it. I was so sure of it that I didn’t bother to check the list. I don’t understand it. Maybe someone previously had nominated him, and then I did all the research, and then they switched? Dunno, but that was a damn good nomination.
As for my nomination: meh. I definitely wanted someone cheap so I could draft near the top of the first round, and I wanted someone with a lot of mediocre starting seasons. Callison fits the bill, plus my version is a decent pinch-hitter and defensive OF. Where he’s less useful is on the teammate side. It probably says a lot about me that with my nominations I tend to focus more on not giving everyone else good teammates rather than giving myself good ones. This is likely to my detriment. But as I mentioned when I made the nomination, at least I got a closer out of the deal, the WIS-famous Barry Latman. Who, of course, I didn’t end up using. If memory serves this is the third straight league of this type where I didn’t use any teammates of my nominee. The previous two leagues had enough available teammate talent that this didn’t hurt me. This time I think it will.
Grade: C-
Round 1 –
1967 Bill Skowron (scrub, $363K)
“Let's see. I can do the prudent thing or the imprudent thing. Well, prudence doesn't make for good writeups, and let's face it, the writeup is what I'm here for.”
Wow did I get that comment wrong. More on that later.
Callison got me the 4
th overall pick. As I expected, the majority of the nominations and first round picks centered on acquiring premium pitcher teammates. Premium pitchers don’t fit into my #INWIYUI strategy (which, for the uninitiated, stands for It’s Not Wasted If You Use It and refers to being willing to use lesser nominated pitchers instead of wasting their salary, leaving more salary cap space available to build a dominant offense and yielding a better overall team with less waste). With my first round pick I wanted to stay near the top of the draft and also get a few usable teammates. What I really liked about Skowron was that he was the one guy in the draft that I absolutely knew I would not be using in a significant way, so being able to get a cheap season of his out of the way was very desirable. Plus he came with no fewer than five usable pitchers. I knew immediately that I would use
Joe Horlen (258 IP, 2.08 ERC#, $8.7M), who has precisely the talent and salary level to be used as a front-of-the-rotation starter along with the #INWIYUI guys. Also included was Gary Peters, a serviceable third starter type for this league who I was planning on rostering for most of this draft. Skowron also came with three relievers: WIS-immortal Cisco Carlos, a solid 89 IP Wilhelm, and an excellent
Don McMahon (92 IP, 1.82 ERC#, $3.5M). I only used the latter, but having the flexibility was nice.
Seems like a great pick then. But the problem was that for #INWIYUI to work you have to be able to build a dominant offense, and with these nominated players that was pretty much impossible. An optimal #INWIYUI team would be something like $65M starting offense, $45M pitching, $10M waste. Even using the $18M Mantle you probably couldn’t get to a $65M offense in this league unless you used 6 or 7 offensive teammates, which would yield way too much waste and a sub-sub-$45M pitching staff. If you didn’t get a top Mantle you couldn’t even get close to $65M, and taking a non-Yankee Skowron eliminated all but one premium Mantle. At the beginning of this draft I deluded myself into believing that if I could get the $14M Mantle that comes along with a mediocre Schantz (and I was convinced that I would) I could make it work, but the numbers simply weren’t there. The majority of the premium players available in this draft were pitchers, and the offensive players available in this draft were cheap enough that you’d be able to afford those premium pitchers, so the hive mind generally got the nominations and the beginning of this draft right while I got it wrong.
But while I got it wrong, at least I didn’t get it catastrophically wrong. I’ve always maintained that you cannot win a league in the first round of a draft, but you can definitely lose one there. And I almost did. The “prudent” pick from my initial comment? Believe it or not, it was the 2008 Dempster. You see, in my spreadsheet there’s a section that calculates the number and salaries of wasted seasons and highlights the largest danger areas. Well, Dempster was considered the biggest danger (even above Holtzman, who had more potential #INWIYUI seasons) so I was all set to take the one useful Dempster, which would’ve doomed me. Fortunately, at the last moment I recognized that the spreadsheet is a tool rather than a rule and decided to trust my gut. Whew.
Grade: B-
Round 2 –
2011 Miguel Cabrera (688 PA, .347/.451/.573, C/B-, $7.4M)
“I keep trying to talk myself out of this pick, but it keeps not working.”
The Skowron pick moved me up to second pick in the second round. At some point later in round one I decided to estimate what my team’s offense could reasonably end up looking like. It failed to reach $60M, even with the $14M Mantle that I was still sure I would be able to draft in the 5
th round or so. That exercise told me that #INWIYUI was dead, and that I needed to get as many of the best versions of nominated offensive teammates as I could just to build a good offense. I therefore felt that I needed a premium Cabrera.
The conventional wisdom would’ve been to take a third baseman Cabrera here, later adding a good Grace to play 1B and freeing up an extra teammate slot for a pitcher or second baseman. But I went with the 2011 for three reasons: he was the absolute best Cabrera available, quality third base teammates were more plentiful, of higher quality, and attached to more desirable nominated seasons than the second baseman teammates, and this Cabrera came with a premium
Justin Verlander (251 IP, 1.90 ERC#, $10.0M) along with an excellent 70 IP Fister that I didn’t end up using. He also added two excellent possibilities at starting catcher: Victor Martinez and
Alex Avila (551 PA, .298/.392/.493, A/A+/B, $5.2M). I chose Avila because he has a better arm, which I usually don’t care about when I’m not in a league where literally every team has a Lou Brock. I kept trying to talk myself out of this pick because taking a third baseman Cabrera made more strategic sense, but I think I got this one right.
Grade: A-
Round 3 –
2003 Edgar Renteria (663 PA, .331/.392/.462, B+/D, $5.7M)
“This round did not go the way I expected it to at all.”
The Cabrera pick dropped me five slots, which was not a surprise. What was surprising was that two players that I had included in the offense experiment conducted in the previous round were taken before my next pick: 1957 Schantz (Mantle) and 2001 Grace (L. Gonzalez). Now it was absolutely imperative that I get as much offense as possible out of my position player draftees. At this point I already knew that I’d be starting versions of Cabrera, Renteria, and Brock. The question was what to do about second base. Should I try to get a cheap Samuel and a cheap Soriano, and get a good second baseman teammate? Or should I start Samuel or Soriano there and preserve a 5
th teammate slot for a pitcher? With this pick I very strongly considered the cheap 2013 Soriano, which would come with a very good Cano to play second. I’d then draft the good (but only 543 PA) 2007 Renteria the following round, who would come with an excellent Chipper Jones. My offense would have been better had I done this, but I’d have to play D/D- Cano at SS for about 15 games, D/D- Avila at third for roughly the same, and play whatever crappy Samuel and Picinich I ended up with in those games, PLUS I’d lose the extra pitcher teammate slot. So instead I took the best full-season Renteria available, who happened to come with the best offensive player still available to me, OF
Albert Pujols (685 PA, .359/.438/.650, B/D+). Again, I think I got this one right.
Grade: A
Round 4 –
1971 Lou Brock (720 PA, .318/.392/.433, D/D-, $5.1M)
“Please sitemail.”
The reason for the “please sitemail” became more apparent next round. As for the reason for this pick: I was fully on my “get the best possible version of each drafted position player you’re going to use” kick, and this was the only Brock I wanted. There were many other similarly priced Brocks, but they all have significantly lower OBPs. Why use a Brock if not at the top of the order, and why use a guy at the top of the order if he has a mediocre OBP? This one also comes with a potent offensive third baseman
Joe Torre (707 PA, .369/.428/.564, C+/D, $8.2M), albeit one who plays defense like one of those big wooden windmills on the mini golf course: he stands in one place and waves his arms around and sometimes prevents balls from getting through to the outfield. So was this the right pick? Maybe. I also needed a starting second baseman Soriano (I’d now decided to punt Samuel until the endgame because he has a lot of cheap seasons) and there were only two decent ones left. This was a gamble, but a reasonable one. But I felt better about it before the 118 SB Brock lasted into the 10
th round.
Grade: B
Round 5 –
2005 Alfonso Soriano (682 PA, .266/.309/.490, C/C+, $4.9M)
“I'm at the Fisher Cats - Sea Dogs game. I promise I'll be able to sitemail all this week but if someone could sitemail again for me I'd appreciate it.”
Ah, Manchester NH. One of my favorite cities in New England. While its “ManchVegas” moniker was granted facetiously, it’s filled with great restaurants, bars, and breweries set on the Merrimack River amidst the permanence of beautiful old brick mill buildings. Great place for a quick getaway, especially when that includes watching live baseball for the first time in almost two years.
Four picks before mine the prognosis for this pick was looking good, but two of those four ended up being the two Sorianos that I wanted. This one is considerably worse, but on the plus side he is 30/32 in SBs and isn’t the worst defensive player ever. A ~$2.5M Soriano followed by a starting Samuel in the endgame probably would’ve made more sense here in hindsight, but at this point I just wanted to be done with second base.
Grade: C
Round 6 –
1979 Woodie Fryman (59 IP, 3.47 ERC#, $1.2M)
“I suppose the time has finally come to draft a pitcher. Or, in this case, a belly-itcher.”
My comment instead should have been “if Woodie had gone right to the police this would never had happened.”
I hadn’t paid much attention to saving salary since round 1. I figured it was time to start doing so here. I think it was around this point that I realized that I’d be better served using three teammate starting pitchers and two relievers rather than vice versa, and I’d need to be able to save some money to be able to do that. The only notable teammate he has is Gary Carter, who is really good at throwing out runners but so mediocre offensively that I won’t use him, especially with that weak-sauce Soriano already in my lineup. Save some salary, move up 3 spots in the draft order next round, and add a guy who might not be totally abysmal if he has to be used as a long reliver. Fine.
Grade: B
Round 7
– 2012 Zack Greinke (123 IP, 3.05 ERC#, $3.1M)
(no comment)
I like this pick a lot. I like it even better with the elimination of the 2020 Greinke from consideration. I am not being critical of schwarze’s decision when I say this, but if I had been planning on drafting the 2020 Greinke man would I be ******.
This Greinke is a useful long reliever, and it’s nice to have as many guys on your roster who might be able to get a hitter or two out as possible. He also brings along a quite good Ryan Braun, who I have never used but was planning on rostering here for a good long while.
Grade: A-
Round 8 –
1964 Bobby Shantz (61 IP, 2.83 ERC#, $1.5M)
“The 16x16 is the only $120M league where you think things like "that 2.83 ERC# lefthanded reliever looks really useful."”
Ain’t that the truth. He’s actually my third best reliever. He brought with him a nice Ron Santo that I’d probably be better off using but that would require caring about defense so oh well.
Grade: A-
Round 9 –
2006 Ryan Dempster (75 IP, 3.98 ERC#, $1.6M)
“
Congrats to Landry19 for making the first pick of this draft that made me curse out loud.
”
The pick in question here was his 1989 Moyer selection, who was cheap and came along with an excellent Nolan Ryan who would’ve looked great as my third starter. It was also Landry19 who chose the ’57 Shantz and his teammate the $14M Mantle, meaning that he made the only two picks of this draft that fundamentally changed the way my team would end up looking.
The curse in question was an F-bomb.
With that Ryan gone, and not being as interested in the 1990 version (at least at that time), I just went straight salary savings here.
Grade: B
Round 10 – 1944 Bobo Newsom (279 IP, 3.13 ERC#, $6.7M)
“Time for me to take my 4th starter. As Eve was tempted by the apple, I am by the Berry.”
This pick is simultaneously one of my favorites of the draft and the best evidence that I screwed up the draft. Don’t get me wrong: I believe this Bobo will get hitters out well enough as a 4
th starter that he’ll win some games. It’s more the fact that I can afford him that’s the problem. I ended up with one of the costliest Holtzmans who I won’t use, and an expensive Grace who I won’t use, plus various other detritus, and I can still afford to pay almost $7M for 279 IP of Bobo. That shouldn’t happen.
But Bobo himself was not the primary reason for this pick. The reason I wanted him here was his teammate
Joe Berry (118 IP, 1.65 ERC#, $4.7M), who was by far the most valuable reliever available to me. If you’re only going to use two teammate slots for relievers, it’s nice if one of them gives you 118 lights-out innings.
Grade: B+
Round 11 –
1989 Juan Samuel (219 PA, .254/.319/.401, B+/B+, $1.7M)
“Because when your starting centerfielder is Albert Pujols, you'll need a defensive replacement.”
In my writeup for my 16x16 Fred Lynn team recently, in explaining my nominee I wrote “…plus, I often tend to neglect defense, but with these pitchers I’ll need all the defense I can get so I figured I’d lock in a good CF so I don’t end up with like a B-/D+ there…”
You probably thought I was kidding. While I ended up not using Pujols in CF, I was ready to do so, and the guy I'm using there is only marginally better.
This is probably the only pick in my draft that was unequivocally the proper choice, so while it’s tempting to assign this a B+ to match his fielding and range I’m gonna go ahead and give this one:
Grade: A
Round 12 –
1929 Val Picinich (weak-hitting backup, C/C-/A-, $2.5M)
“And now, to complete the worst defensive outfield in the history of organized baseball, Babe Herman joins the club along with...”
Before commenting on this pick, I should note that every one of these drafts seems to have one player’s name who prompts a line from a song or a movie or something to get repeated in my head every time I read it. In the last league I named my team “Running on Ehmke”, which naturally brought to mind the Jackson Browne song 3 times a day. This draft, I cannot look at the name Val Picinich without at least thinking, if not saying out loud, in my best Yogi Bear voice, “hey Boo Boo…let’s see what’s in that pic-in-ich basket…”
As I mentioned a few rounds ago, I was all set to use the 2012 Braun as one of my starting outfielders. But here I got to a point where I really didn’t have anyone else left to spend my money on so I opted for a slight upgrade. The major positive here was that Babe Herman hits lefthanded; if I had used Braun instead my starting lineup would have had six righties and two lefties. The negative is that my starting outfield would now be D/D+, B/D+, D/D-. I wanted a lefty hitter, but the only other good LHH OF available to me who could also play defense was the 2004 Ichiro, but his $9.8M salary combined with his $3.5M useless Moyer was too much for me to afford.
Grade: C
Round 13 –
1998 Mark Grace (698 PA, .310/.400/.456, B+/C, $5.4M)
“As long as I'm going to overpay for a pinch-hitter, it might as well be a good pinch-hitter.”
Somehow, in the 13
th round I ended up with the sixth-best Mark Grace. Does this mean that I should have taken a third baseman Cabrera back in round 2? I have no idea.
By now you’ve probably noticed that I didn’t list the stats for Babe Herman above. About 15 minutes after I made the Picinich pick I realized that many of the remaining Grace seasons came with good
Sammy Sosa (722 PA, .308/.376/.634, C/B-, $7.7M) seasons where he can even play a little defense. I’ve never used any Sosa, and normally wouldn’t even consider it, but I think there will be enough pitchers in this league who give up some homers that it might work. Plus he’ll start in CF for me. When you’re drafting Sosa for his defense you’re probably in trouble.
In order to afford Sosa I’d need to shuffle some things around, but fortunately I was able to do that. The bad news is that doing so made my previous pick seem much worse. There had been much better Picinichs available for similar prices, but I took that one thinking that I was using Herman. Picinich will only get about 100 PAs for me so it’s not a big deal, but still annoying.
Grade: B
Rounds 14 and 15 –
1969 Ken Holtzman (262 IP, 3.56 ERC#, $6.1M),
1990 Jamie Moyer (scrub, $1.8M)
Luckily for me the cheaper of the two remaining Holtzmans (the other was $6.9M) dropped to me in the 14
th round. I knew at this point that I would get the final remaining Moyer. There was one cheaper one left but this one came with my eventual third starter,
Nolan Ryan (204 IP, 2.26 ERC#, $7.1M). I had been planning on using Gary Peters here for most of the draft, but Ryan was cheaper and better suited for the ballpark I chose. The fact that he has fewer innings than Peters probably means that we’ll be seeing a bit more of Fryman or Holtzman than I’d originally intended, though.
Grades: B/B+
Conclusion
Given that my team is offense oriented, my starting pitchers are all righthanded, and all of my power hitters are also righties, I decided to use Hilltop Park. I’ve never used it before, but I generally suck at choosing stadiums so I’m guessing it’s the wrong choice.
Starting Lineup (assuming 90 PA for Picinich) .324/.396/.535
Pitching staff (excluding Long B/Mop Up) 1,445 IP, 2.40 ERC#
$54M offense, $47M pitching, and $19M waste, a far cry from my desired 65/45/10.
Assigning 16 points to my nomination grade, 15 points to my first round pick, 14 to second, etc., my grade average was 7.99, or almost exactly a B. If my nomination had been decent it would’ve been a B+. This mirrors how I feel about this draft. I don’t feel like I made any major blunders, but I also don’t feel great about this team. It’s probably missing one more great player, who I should’ve gotten from my nomination. This feels like an 85-win second-place team to me, which isn’t good enough. But it should be a fun league. Thanks as always to schwarze for running this always great draft.