Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 1:54:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 2/23/2012 1:49:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 2/23/2012 11:03:00 AM (view original):

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 10:58:00 AM (view original):
A HR isn't a ball in play. I don't understand why you are arguing this point. HR aren't included in BABIP.

Are you saying that there is a substantial difference between a line drive that clears the fence by six inches and one that bangs off the wall six inches below the top?  The pitcher has control of one (because it's a HR and covered by FIP), but absolutely no influence on the other?

STILL waiting for a response to this question.

Pitchers do control how well a ball is hit.  Which why it is on them if they give up a home run.  But they don't control whether or not a well hit (or weakly hit) ball in play is caught.

You're avoiding the question.

Why does a difference of 12 inches in height on a line drive to the fence make a difference with respect to how much control the pitcher had on the play?

I hate to play this card because it's not necessarily the "right" way to go about things but it begs to be asked.

Did you play baseball at any level?
Did you play baseball when it became actual baseball?   Usually 13-14 because that when the giant isn't always the best player.

I only ask because you seem to fail to understand that it's harder to hit certain pitches in certain locations with any authority.   You may weakly tap a low and away slider to the1B if you're looking up and in.   Or put your bat on a knee-buckling curve.   But those will be easy to field.    Those swings are nothing like the one you'll take on 3-1 fastball down the pipe.   You may miss that one too but you stand a much better chance of putting good wood on it.    You're just hoping for luck on those other two swings and both of them were caused by the pitcher.

And, yes, MLB hitters get fooled, set up and overpowered.   If not, no one would ever take a third strike down the middle.  

Posted by Jtpsops on 2/23/2012 1:49:00 PM (view original):

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 1:48:00 PM (view original):
Pitchers do control how well a ball is hit.  Which why it is on them if they give up a home run.  But they don't control whether or not a well hit (or weakly hit) ball in play is caught.

You're still failing to grasp the concept. If a pitcher allows a hitter to put the ball where there is no fielder, that's on the pitcher. And no, I'm not talking about a weak flare of the end of the bat that bloops in for a single. That's fluky and not really the pitchers fault. I'm taking about solid singles through the IF, or extra base hits to the gap. There's zero a fielder can do about that unless he's playing way out of position.

jrd - your blanket statement doesn't address this. you're basically saying that a pitcher throws the ball, and then it's just luck of the draw the angle it happens to take off the bat. By saying that, you're removing the ability of the hitter and the quality/location of the pitch, both of which are huge factors. Fielders are responsible for playing balls within their range. Even if you have the best player in MLB, range-wise, at each position, there will still be a good chunk of the field that is not within any fielder's range. If the ball is hit there, unless it's some fluke nubber that squeaks in, is the pitcher's responsibility, plain and simple, and he could have prevented it with a better pitch/sequence of pitches.

Posted by tecwrg on 2/23/2012 2:00:00 PM (view original):

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 1:54:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 2/23/2012 1:49:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 2/23/2012 11:03:00 AM (view original):

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 10:58:00 AM (view original):
A HR isn't a ball in play. I don't understand why you are arguing this point. HR aren't included in BABIP.

Are you saying that there is a substantial difference between a line drive that clears the fence by six inches and one that bangs off the wall six inches below the top?  The pitcher has control of one (because it's a HR and covered by FIP), but absolutely no influence on the other?

STILL waiting for a response to this question.

Pitchers do control how well a ball is hit.  Which why it is on them if they give up a home run.  But they don't control whether or not a well hit (or weakly hit) ball in play is caught.

You're avoiding the question.

Why does a difference of 12 inches in height on a line drive to the fence make a difference with respect to how much control the pitcher had on the play?

It really doesn't.  But a home run wasn't caught because it left the park.  A fly ball in play (even a laser 12 inches below the top of the wall) can be caught.  Whether or not it is, is out of the pitcher's hands.

Why, when you list 8 pitchers in the history of baseball, can't they be outliers?    Why must it be "You don't understand stats" when you use "outliers" as an answer?

So this makes perfect sense to you?

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 2:02:00 PM (view original):
I hate to play this card because it's not necessarily the "right" way to go about things but it begs to be asked.

Did you play baseball at any level?
Did you play baseball when it became actual baseball?   Usually 13-14 because that when the giant isn't always the best player.

I only ask because you seem to fail to understand that it's harder to hit certain pitches in certain locations with any authority.   You may weakly tap a low and away slider to the1B if you're looking up and in.   Or put your bat on a knee-buckling curve.   But those will be easy to field.    Those swings are nothing like the one you'll take on 3-1 fastball down the pipe.   You may miss that one too but you stand a much better chance of putting good wood on it.    You're just hoping for luck on those other two swings and both of them were caused by the pitcher.

I played varsity baseball junior and senior year of high school.  P and 3b.

jrd seems to think every square inch of the diamond/field is within range of a fielder. Not even close.

ok, jrd...answer me this:

A dead pull lefty hitter is at the plate. Shift is on, with the plan for the pitcher to pitch the hitter inside and jam him, giving him little option but to hit it to the pull-side of the field.  Pitcher throws a fast ball that badly misses low and away. The hitter reaches out and strokes it the opposite way for a double off the left field wall. No fielder near it - who's fault is that?

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 2:10:00 PM (view original):
Why, when you list 8 pitchers in the history of baseball, can't they be outliers?    Why must it be "You don't understand stats" when you use "outliers" as an answer?

I think I listed over 20 modern day and active pitchers with career BABIP's around .300.  All with varying levels skill (Maddux, Clemens, Randy Johnson ----------------->Stauffer, Luebke). 

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 2:23:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 2:10:00 PM (view original):
Why, when you list 8 pitchers in the history of baseball, can't they be outliers?    Why must it be "You don't understand stats" when you use "outliers" as an answer?

I think I listed over 20 modern day and active pitchers with career BABIP's around .300.  All with varying levels skill (Maddux, Clemens, Randy Johnson ----------------->Stauffer, Luebke). 

And I said "If you're going to list A/S or HOF-types, I'm going to say below average BABIP creates good pitchers!!!"

You then listed 8 that never made an A/S gam(actually 7 and I'm taking your word on it).

I called them "outliers".

What part of this isn't working for you?

Posted by tecwrg on 2/23/2012 2:13:00 PM (view original):

So this makes perfect sense to you?

In what world do all of a pitcher's balls in play go off the wall?  If that was the case, then yes, the pitcher is ******.  But that's not realistic.  Roy Halladay has a BABIP for his career of .295.  The guy is an awesome pitcher and may end up in the hall of fame.  Freddy Garcia has been above average but no where near Halladay.  His BABIP is .286.

Is Garcia better at inducing weakly hit balls in play? No.  Some combination of defense, luck, and park effects have contributed to Garcia allowing less hits on balls in play than Halladay.

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 2:15:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/23/2012 2:02:00 PM (view original):
I hate to play this card because it's not necessarily the "right" way to go about things but it begs to be asked.

Did you play baseball at any level?
Did you play baseball when it became actual baseball?   Usually 13-14 because that when the giant isn't always the best player.

I only ask because you seem to fail to understand that it's harder to hit certain pitches in certain locations with any authority.   You may weakly tap a low and away slider to the1B if you're looking up and in.   Or put your bat on a knee-buckling curve.   But those will be easy to field.    Those swings are nothing like the one you'll take on 3-1 fastball down the pipe.   You may miss that one too but you stand a much better chance of putting good wood on it.    You're just hoping for luck on those other two swings and both of them were caused by the pitcher.

I played varsity baseball junior and senior year of high school.  P and 3b.

OK, good.

Were you never fooled on a pitch?   One where you had to make a last second adjustment just to get the bat on the ball?

Conversely, were you never looking Dead Red and got it?

Posted by jrd_x on 2/23/2012 2:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 2/23/2012 2:13:00 PM (view original):

So this makes perfect sense to you?

In what world do all of a pitcher's balls in play go off the wall?  If that was the case, then yes, the pitcher is ******.  But that's not realistic.  Roy Halladay has a BABIP for his career of .295.  The guy is an awesome pitcher and may end up in the hall of fame.  Freddy Garcia has been above average but no where near Halladay.  His BABIP is .286.

Is Garcia better at inducing weakly hit balls in play? No.  Some combination of defense, luck, and park effects have contributed to Garcia allowing less hits on balls in play than Halladay.

Outlier.