Round 1 Sound Off, 2020 Topic

I just copy/pasted my game by game results from each league and did some countifs. Took ~5min
7/27/2020 6:44 PM
since the cool kids are doing it
Wins Days
18 0
17 0
16 3
15 1
14 0
13 4
12 6
11 7
10 14
9 6
8 5
7 2
6 0
5 1
4 0
3 0
2 0
1 0
0 0
7/27/2020 7:56 PM

Quote post by schwarze on 7/27/2020 2:30:00 PM:


Regarding pre-season ranking, I still think you put too much weight on the "last-year-to-this-year" grade. I know when I was doing the rankings, I pretty much made the tournament results almost 100% of the ranking score (assuming you played the past 5 tournament), weighting the most recent tournaments way more, to the point where older tournaments had very little impact. If I want to be ranked higher in next year's tournament, I guess I should play in a bunch of open leagues to get my results to look better and definitely stop playing in those "screw-your-neighbor" type leagues.

I know I am usually ranked lower than I feel I should be. Maybe not by that much but, I usually beat my pre-tournament ranking. But then I play very few leagues outside the WIS tournament these days. And I mean very few. Probably averaging less than 1 per year over the last few years.
7/28/2020 3:05 AM
In your case that's because your overall stats rank considerably worse than your tournament performance rank, and on top of that you've had a couple poor tournament finishes (mixed in with a couple good ones).

This year, you ranked 29th in past tournament results (which counted for 67% of your final "score"), but 54th in your overall stats rank (accounting for 32% of your score), and the final 1% was made up of your results over the last year. You'd find it pretty hard to convince me that 1% is too much of a bump to give someone for recent performance.
7/28/2020 9:50 AM
schwarze ranked 7th in historical tournament results (accounting for 75% of his score), 17th in stats rank (24%) and 1% coming from recent performance.

The recent performance rank really only comes into play when people haven't played in a lot of tournaments. For example, for skunk206, milest, and mjkrunner it counts for 5% since this is only their second year playing. Without it, they'd have been ranked lower, which wouldn't make a ton of sense.
7/28/2020 9:56 AM (edited)
Thanks. My bad... I thought the ratios were distributed differently. Although I am shocked I am ranked 13th in tournament performance, with 2nd and 4th place finishes in last three years. I guess that 27th finish in 2015 really added a lot of weight. Curious who were the 12 ranked higher?
7/28/2020 10:00 AM
Sorry, that was a typo. You're 7th in tournament performance. It's your 17th place finish in stats ranking that holds you back from being ranked higher.
7/28/2020 10:02 AM
Also — fun fact. I looked at the correlation between wins in each individual theme and overall rank. The 110M has the lowest correlation by a decent margin. Lots of people (myself included) saving the big guns for Round 2).
7/28/2020 10:03 AM
Posted by ozomatli on 7/27/2020 1:52:00 PM (view original):
Also, I am rooting for schwarze. Being the commissioner for this tournament makes it a lot harder to win because you have less time to make your teams. He ran this tournament for years and came close a few times — he's pretty indisputably a top tier owner in my eyes.
Thanks for the kiss of death.... Just went 1-5 for the second time in last 5 sessions...
.
Today's pm highlights...
80M: Blows 2-0 eighth inning lead to lose in extras to 86-loss team. (My 86-63 record would currently miss the playoffs in the overall toughest division)
90M: Blows 5-3 9th inning lead to lose second in a row to 90-loss team. (My 85-64 team, currently on an "L5", is 2 more losses away from missing playoffs)
Two other teams blew games late.

The silver lining is that I have should enough wins accumulated where even if I get only 4 teams in the playoffs and then tank in the playoffs as usual, I should still make it to round 2.
7/28/2020 1:53 PM
Posted by ozomatli on 7/28/2020 9:51:00 AM (view original):
In your case that's because your overall stats rank considerably worse than your tournament performance rank, and on top of that you've had a couple poor tournament finishes (mixed in with a couple good ones).

This year, you ranked 29th in past tournament results (which counted for 67% of your final "score"), but 54th in your overall stats rank (accounting for 32% of your score), and the final 1% was made up of your results over the last year. You'd find it pretty hard to convince me that 1% is too much of a bump to give someone for recent performance.
Yeah, it is the 54th overall stats rank which is 32% of the ranking that skews my pre-ranking lower than it probably should be each year. But then, I am an outlier to your formula and would be an even bigger one if you made past tournament results worth even less. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't change it. After all, I'm an outlier either way. Besides, pre-rankings are meaningless, it is the end result that counts.

For me, I use my pre-ranking as a baseline of what's the worse I should finish. If I finish at or below my pre-ranking, I know I under-performed expectations and probably drafted poorly. If I make the second round, I know I over-achieved based on my limited playing in the last 10 years not keeping me as sharp as I should be at knowing the best players at the different salary caps levels.

I would judge my true pre-ranking would be closer to 29th instead of 35th but somewhere in between. It is not the 1% from last year that is skewing my ranking but the 54th in overall stats (or the 32%) that causes me to be under-ranked. Over 90% of my overall stats are from over a decade ago. I learned the game, improved, won a couple of world series and stopped playing the game for a few years before jumping back in with a few theme leagues before jumping into the tournament 5-6 years ago. Because, I stopped playing just when I was getting good at the game, I didn't increase my win % over time. Since returning, I have only played a handful of seasons (maybe 5 or 6) outside of the WIS tournament the last 6 years. Since the WIS tournament has a higher level of competition, my overall win % has taken a hit from when I first came back. This is true even when I make the second round, since I struggle to get to .500 in the second round against the best of the best and their level of overall experience. I think when I returned my overall win percentage was about .525 and now it is down to .516 playing nearly exclusively in the tournament. So, my actual overall tournament results pull my rank up (29th) but, my overall tournament win % then pulls my rank down because it lowers my overall win % because I am currently playing exclusively in the WIS tournament. So in my case, and maybe only in my case, the pre-tournament ranking formula you use will under rank me and continue to under rank me, unless I start playing and then significantly play more open and theme leagues to get a truer overall win % against other competition.
7/28/2020 4:34 PM (edited)
Another case of The mildnhazy Problem!
7/28/2020 4:40 PM
Posted by schwarze on 6/9/2020 8:52:00 AM (view original):
1-5... it's over... I'm done. Looking forward to next year.
I think you missed deleting this one schwarze
7/28/2020 6:28 PM
My $90m team has been my best team all season long, but right now they're in pretty much a four-way tie for three playoff spots. Checking each session's results through my fingers
7/28/2020 6:31 PM
Wonder who’s got the biggest disparity between winning% and expected winning %. My $180m team has a .440 winning% and a .504 expected%
7/29/2020 2:45 PM
Posted by ozomatli on 7/27/2020 6:44:00 PM (view original):
I just copy/pasted my game by game results from each league and did some countifs. Took ~5min
Mind giving instructions for those of us who are excel illiterate? I copied all my results but could figure out how to input the countifs to calculate everything
7/29/2020 2:47 PM
◂ Prev 1...26|27|28|29|30...35 Next ▸
Round 1 Sound Off, 2020 Topic

Search Criteria

Terms of Use Customer Support Privacy Statement

© 1999-2025 WhatIfSports.com, Inc. All rights reserved. WhatIfSports is a trademark of WhatIfSports.com, Inc. SimLeague, SimMatchup and iSimNow are trademarks or registered trademarks of Electronic Arts, Inc. Used under license. The names of actual companies and products mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners.