Got my first 0-6 of the tourney. Right on queue with the playoff push

Posted by chargingryno on 7/29/2020 2:45:00 PM (view original):
Wonder who’s got the biggest disparity between winning% and expected winning %. My $180m team has a .440 winning% and a .504 expected%

My 90M has a .533 win% and expected of .608, so that's 75 points below. A little bit bigger disparity.

Posted by redcped on 7/29/2020 3:04:00 PM (view original):

Posted by chargingryno on 7/29/2020 2:45:00 PM (view original):
Wonder who’s got the biggest disparity between winning% and expected winning %. My $180m team has a .440 winning% and a .504 expected%

My 90M has a .533 win% and expected of .608, so that's 75 points below. A little bit bigger disparity.

and MY 90M team is at .553 with an exp% of .636 . . . 83 points below. and that team is in a dogfight for a playoff spot.

Posted by chargingryno on 7/29/2020 2:45:00 PM (view original):
Wonder who’s got the biggest disparity between winning% and expected winning %. My $180m team has a .440 winning% and a .504 expected%

Well for awhile I had a 28% win rate on 1-run games, so I bet I’m pretty high up there

$120 mil team has a .526 win% (80-72) with a .610 expected win rate (92.72 - 59.28)

84 point difference

Got my 7th schwarze of the tournament in the pm2 game. Tops my previous best of 6.

I've only had 2 schwarzes this tourney. But I also have not had a single mauch since the 2018 tournament, which I'm pretty proud of. *cue jinx*

My king kelly in the 90mil league must be the worst in the tourney by a solid percentage. Trash

Crazy stat:

Right now, NebHusker and teamhydro are tied for 35th — well within the range of making Round 2 with a solid playoff performance. However, NebHusker has somehow managed to be in position for 5 potential playoff teams while teamhydro only has 1! Crazy

43	35	NebHusker	87	84	76	86	84	71	488	0.532	4-2	5.0
50	35	teamhydro	91	84	79	81	76	77	488	0.532	2-4	1.0

11-1 last 2 sessions. Maybe I’ll take a look at round 2 themes

A week ago I had 6 playoff teams. Now I I have 3. AGH!

discodemo has a real shot of having named 8 of the Top 10 before games started. His picks were:

Poster	Predicted Rank	Owner	Pre-Rank	Points	Actual Rank
discodemo	1	brianjw	1	10	6
discodemo	2	mjkrunner	6	9	8
discodemo	3	ozomatli	4	8	5
discodemo	4	skunk206	5	7	4
discodemo	5	milest	7	6	9
discodemo	6	mensu1954	10	5	9
discodemo	7	schwarze	8	4	1
discodemo	8	jfranco77	12	3	7
discodemo	9	mildnhazy	13	2	17
discodemo	10	rbow923	9	1	27

Wow. Just Wow. The last 3 cycles have been the biggest piece of horse manure I have ever seen. 5 wins in the last 3 cycles. Even before that I had a few cycles going 4-2 but left so many points on the table because my best teams were losing series and/or being swept by 60 win teams they dominated all season. I understand losses, I don't understand how 6 teams could collapse like that all at once. I think it's time to use up the couple of remaining teams I have in some open leagues and give this game up, again.

1st 0-6 session......
I was holding in 4th place for a while early, then as soon as I hit 3rd place, I began a slow & steady fall in the standings. It's still hard for me to believe my $140M team sucks. It doesn't make sense.

In the tournament's toughest division, it's not looking good for me...

West	W-L	PCT	GB	Division	1-Run G	Extra Inn	RS	RA	Exp.%	Owner
DR 080M	97-62	0.610	-	22-17	28-19	11-6	761	612	0.599	tigerrott
Dollaro Superiore	93-66	0.585	4	22-17	34-26	8-10	789	677	0.572	wink0094
Frank, Carl & 23 No Names	92-67	0.579	5	20-19	29-17	10-3	742	610	0.589	schwarze
The Hicks, Skids & Jose Offerman	83-76	0.522	14	14-25	20-32	6-6	769	673	0.562	bottomlee

After going 4-8 vs four teams that average a 64-95 record, I play the two toughest teams in this ridiculous division and go 6-2. But then I lose game 1 vs the fourth place team (albeit a pretty good fourth place team), while wink beats the first place team. I forget... is there a monetary prize for the team with the best record to miss the playoffs?
.
The good news is that the playoff bonus is significantly smaller than it was a few years ago. So missing the playoffs gets me the same number of bonus points as making the playoffs and getting swept 3-0. So whatever happens, happens.