Trump will have more votes than any republican primary candidate..... EVER. That's the benchmark, BL. TRUMP THE WINNER!!! TRUMP THE UNIFIER!!

Sweet. If he makes it to 1237, awesome. If not, sorry.

Posted by bad_luck on 4/27/2016 2:08:00 PM (view original):
Sweet. If he makes it to 1237, awesome. If not, sorry.

Not an if anymore. You got what you want. And like I've told you before.... Be careful what you wish for.

It's still an if. He's at 956 now. If he falls flat in Indiana (right now that's a coin flip) he's going to need like 140 delegates in CA. That's unlikely.

Posted by bad_luck on 4/27/2016 2:34:00 PM (view original):
It's still an if. He's at 956 now. If he falls flat in Indiana (right now that's a coin flip) he's going to need like 140 delegates in CA. That's unlikely.

39/54 from PA that said they'd back him
12 from Missouri
51 from NJ
34 from WV

1237-954=283

283- 39-51-12-34=147

That doesn't include Indiana, Nebraska, Washington, Oregon, South Dakota, New Mexico, Montana, California, and over 100 uncommitted 1st ballot delegates.

The line for Donald Trump's rally with Bob Knight. https://t.co/ipi5nXpGiC

^^^as you can see Trump will do just fine in Indiana.

Posted by moy23 on 4/27/2016 3:21:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 4/27/2016 2:34:00 PM (view original):
It's still an if. He's at 956 now. If he falls flat in Indiana (right now that's a coin flip) he's going to need like 140 delegates in CA. That's unlikely.

39/54 from PA that said they'd back him
12 from Missouri
51 from NJ
34 from WV

1237-954=283

283- 39-51-12-34=147

That doesn't include Indiana, Nebraska, Washington, Oregon, South Dakota, New Mexico, Montana, California, and over 100 uncommitted 1st ballot delegates.

Yeah, I built in WV to my estimate. You can't count PA (or the other uncommitted) until they actually cast the ballots. They aren't bound to him and there will be a ton of pressure from the party if it's close.

956 now.
51 from NJ.

That's 1007.
He'll get a handful in OR & WA, probably around 30.

That's 1037.

He'll get 0 in Nebraska.
Zero in Montana.
Zero in South Dakota.

That's 1037.

Let's say he gets all 34 in WV.

That's 1071.

Maybe 10 in NM.

That's 1081 with only Indiana and California left.

He needs to get 156 out of those two. If he pulls down 40 in Indiana, he's got a good chance, only needing 116 from CA.

But if he gets 9 in Indiana?

He's ******.

Posted by moy23 on 4/27/2016 3:28:00 PM (view original):
The line for Donald Trump's rally with Bob Knight. https://t.co/ipi5nXpGiC

Bob Knight is the second biggest a##hole at the rally.

Posted by bad_luck on 4/27/2016 3:45:00 PM (view original):

Posted by moy23 on 4/27/2016 3:21:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 4/27/2016 2:34:00 PM (view original):
It's still an if. He's at 956 now. If he falls flat in Indiana (right now that's a coin flip) he's going to need like 140 delegates in CA. That's unlikely.

39/54 from PA that said they'd back him
12 from Missouri
51 from NJ
34 from WV

1237-954=283

283- 39-51-12-34=147

That doesn't include Indiana, Nebraska, Washington, Oregon, South Dakota, New Mexico, Montana, California, and over 100 uncommitted 1st ballot delegates.

Yeah, I built in WV to my estimate. You can't count PA (or the other uncommitted) until they actually cast the ballots. They aren't bound to him and there will be a ton of pressure from the party if it's close.

956 now.
51 from NJ.

That's 1007.
He'll get a handful in OR & WA, probably around 30.

That's 1037.

He'll get 0 in Nebraska.
Zero in Montana.
Zero in South Dakota.

That's 1037.

Let's say he gets all 34 in WV.

That's 1071.

Maybe 10 in NM.

That's 1081 with only Indiana and California left.

He needs to get 156 out of those two. If he pulls down 40 in Indiana, he's got a good chance, only needing 116 from CA.

But if he gets 9 in Indiana?

He's ******.

I think you're misplacing where the pressure is coming from for uncommitted delegates - it's not the establishment.

68% of Republican voters think the leading delegate holder should get the nod, which is Trump. Priebus is already caving to the popular demand. The Pennsylvania delegates have already stated how they would vote, even before last night. The pressure will be on them to live up to their word from their home counties since 60% of the state and every County voted for Trump. Remember, that's who they go home to.

Posted by RCBracco on 4/27/2016 4:35:00 PM (view original):

Posted by moy23 on 4/27/2016 3:28:00 PM (view original):
The line for Donald Trump's rally with Bob Knight. https://t.co/ipi5nXpGiC

Bob Knight is the second biggest a##hole at the rally.

That's funny, probably true.

Donald Trump and Bobby Knight vs Hillary and Debbie Wasserman Schultz? Not a hard choice to say which are the most unlikeable.

Also BL - there is no way Trump will get shut out of all 150 or so uncommitted 1st ballot delegates. None of the formulas include these people. At a minimum he'll get ~1/3rd of them or ~50.

Maybe. But we don't know that. All we can count are committed delegates. If he is going to fall short of 1237 in committed delegates, there's a very, very good chance the party will work to keep the nomination away from him.

Posted by bad_luck on 4/27/2016 5:08:00 PM (view original):
Maybe. But we don't know that. All we can count are committed delegates. If he is going to fall short of 1237 in committed delegates, there's a very, very good chance the party will work to keep the nomination away from him.

Very slim chance. Very slim. These things almost never go to a second ballot. If he's within 80 or so of the 1237 without uncommitted delegates Trump is a shoo-in for the nomination. The downside of stealing away the nomination is far more damaging to the party than allowing Trump to run, and as you say, lose. At least if he loses to Hillary like you suggest they can say we told you so. To steal the nomination and have a white knight go in and lose to Hillary will absolutely destroy the establishment. No?