Quote: Originally Posted By geoffrhodes on 1/05/2010Guys, I really think the first game is the outlier. He should be more upset by winning by 40+ than losing by 2.
I agree with you, the 34 TO is bizarre.

Quote: Originally posted by geoffrhodes on 1/05/2010Guys, I really think the first game is the outlier. He should be more upset by winning by 40+ than losing by 2.

Quote: Originally posted by colonels19 on 1/05/2010I've read all the explanations here and while valid, I still don't think it justifies a 43 point swing, when the HCA factor that you spoke of, improved for Wentworth Tech in game 2 and got worse for Bridgewater State, as game 1 was AT Bridgewater State where Wentworth Tech won by 41 and game 2 was at a neutral site.I could understand a swing of this nature, say if Bridgewater State's coach wasn't paying attention to his team at the time of game 1, but otherwise, to make up 20 buckets on tempo change and player improvement that occurred on both teams.Billy, you say it isn't that rare, but I think you're speaking of 40 point swings where one home team wins by 20 and then in the return match the other home team wins by 20...that makes sense and I think occured a time or two to me this season, however to win a game AWAY by 41 and then to lose to that same team by 2 at a NEUTRAL site...I'm sure that scenario is a lot more rare than my first example.  I gripe about the same thing in the NBA sim and I've seen high 50 and low 60 point swings at the same venue for no rhyme or reason, other than what I say "the sim took a **** on me" and the folks in the NBA sim forums agree with me.I will always think that btown got screwed by the sim here, and I feel bad for him because it happened to me in my last stint in HD.  I simply cannot and will not right this up to "normal sim on-goings" I just can't...the circs are way too bizarre.

Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 1/05/2010This kind of extreme randomness shouldn't happen, and the game should be less random than real life. Please stop comparing the sim to real life...2 completely different cans of worms

Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 1/05/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By metsmax on 1/05/2010

IF this was a game in which they simmed each game 1000 times or even 100 times and the results were the average of those results, then one would be absolutely shocked by a 43 point differential. But it is an analytic error to look for justification of a 43 point swing - it just happens. Why exactly would someone be more shocked if a 43 point swing happened in 1000 games than if it happened in 2 games as it did here? There are 500 times the chances...its much more understandable for a 43 point swing to happen in 1000 games than 2.

profoundly wrong colonel - read what I wrote - the AVERAGE of 1000 independent simulations would be much less likely to lead to extremes - right - basic probability - if you repeat the experiment you get more normal results from an average of many repetitions - see for example tossing a coin....

Here, there were some factors that changed - like home court and maybe IQ - in a way that pushed in that direction, but all you need is one extreme outlier - one very unlikely event and maybe one somewhat unlikely result in the other game and you can get a 40+ delta. Wentworth Tech went from playing @Bridgewater State to going to a neutral location, so their location factor got better for the game, further compounding the 40 point swing.

so what, HCA might be 3-5 points in whatever direction applies - now and then there are in real life and, in my view, should be expected to be in HD, big variations

Like, when Richmond beat Syracuse in 1991, the first time a 15 seed beat a 2 seed. Odds are that if they played 10 times that Cuse would have won by 20-30 points in most of those games. And if they played 100 times Cuse would have won some by 40 points. Real life is completely different from the sim. Their are so many real life factors that aren't included in the sim, human emotion, players "on" or "off", referee bias, etc, so its much more understandable to see a 43 point swing in real life than it is in a sim determined by concrete ratings and pre-determined coaching plans.

YOU prefer less variability than in real life - I think the game has been designed to try to simulate real life - that means not only simulating the average results but also in terms of variability - I'd hope - but dont know that they aim for simular dispersions of results and the like - why should the designer and the users want less variability?

It just so happened that those of us at Cole Field House that night got to see the one game where Richmond beat a great Cuse team - with 3 or 4 future NBA players.....

so, it is an odd result, an outlier, but I doubt it is more I don't think saying its an outlier means that it should be justified. He's got every right to be ****** and he should be. I would consider quitting the game over a result like this...the result is rather unacceptable.

he's fully entitled to be disappointed, but he shouldnt be ****** if he heeds the analytic perspective and realizes its part of the game - with enough games SIMed some have this sort of result - sometimes it helps ya and sometimes it doesnt - folks who want something more predictable might not like it - I've been thrilled when I've had the benefit of an outlier, especially when I think that some tactics that I pursued in game planning and roster construction may have enhanced the chances of that sort of upset - folks are entitled to prefer a game with fewer upsets and fewer unlikely results - but that doesnt make it wrong unless there is a - not yet articulated - reason why it is wrong or unacceptable - it just isnt what you prefer

Quote: Originally Posted By schroedess26 on 1/05/2010
by the way look at the defense run by his opponet both games. Looks like game 1 was a full court press and game 2 was a man 2 man. This would be a huge difference when it comes to how well his team performs.