Quote: Originally posted by MikeT23 on 2/03/2010It doesn't really matter what you believe wrt to comp picks.   The guy trading the vet inevitably believes he'll get stars with the comp picks.   All of them say "Yeah, but he doesn't re-sign with you, you'll get two picks!!"

the comp picks are a crapshoot. more often that not, you're looking at picks 40 and 120 (especially if your team is good, cause of the stupid type A rules). the sandwich pick is the only one that matters, and it's hit or miss depending on the draft depth. some sandwich picks aren't even worth the 600K bonus.

so it counts for something but it's not a major swing in the deal.

As a general rule, prospects are overrated and vets are underrated.

did you forget sal floyd?

risk vrs reward with regards to comp picks. you can strike out 2/3rds of the time and be fine with it if the other 1/3rd of the time you land something.

sal floyd was a miracle...why somebody would want to give up the 18th pick for 1 year of him without signing any other type A's is still a mystery to me.

I think it depends on what the best deal you can get is. If you're still getting at least one pretty good prospect for a Type A, maybe that's alright. If you're not getting that, might as well take your chances on compensation IMO. No sense in trading someone for players who aren't going to help your BL team at some point.

Quote: Originally posted by MikeT23 on 2/03/2010It doesn't really matter what you believe wrt to comp picks.   The guy trading the vet inevitably believes he'll get stars with the comp picks.   All of them say "Yeah, but he doesn't re-sign with you, you'll get two picks!!"

I guess that's where I differ. I don't expect to get stars. But the sandwich pick should produce an ML-quality player most of the time.

I took the last two seasons in each of my leagues, the average spot of the non-sandwich picks over the past 2 seasons (so, four total between the two leageus) was 80. You can get quite a bit of value with picks 45 and 80. I'm not expecting stars, but on average, one of those picks will hit as a serviceable ML player and that can be valuable.

For example, if I can get 2 seasons of a Type A player with a reasonable contract and I give up a guy picked in the 20s and a guy picked with a sandwich pick, that might not be a bad deal for me, depending on how it fits my franchise.

I think those supplemental picks add up over the years; you never know when another owner will overvalue that guy you picked in the sandwich round.

Plus, the veteran has his capped ratings and his past ML performance. He's a known quantity. Any prospect could get injured and rendered all but useless, stop progressing early, inexplicably sh*t himself in the majors despite his ratings, etc.

Wow, you guys look at this from another level. I need to step up my game if I want to play with the big boys.

i don't mind trading a prospect for vet - provided i feel i can get a minimum of 2 seasons (ideally 3) from the vet at his current value and ratings and by taking the said vet and putting him in my lineup thereby removes someone from my lineup with considerably less value that's playing a lot now in the ML

i make an IP or AB comparison only based on the new guy i'm getting and the player i'm either demoting or benching - i don't have a specific threshold but it's ideally around 150 innings for a starter, 35-40 for a reliever and 400 ABs for a position player

the only other thing i consider is how easily i can replace the prospect based on my IFA budget and draft position for the season this is taking place or the next one if it's at the end of a season i do this because it seems that prospects of similar potential all have similar value unless they are in their first year ready to be called up. so i don't mind trading a AA prospect knowing i'm backfilling someone of similar value at the RL level

interesting way of looking at it MikeT23 - there's probably a good formula in there

Quote: Originally Posted By hokiejoe on 2/03/2010Wow, you guys look at this from another level. I need to step up my game if I want to play with the big boys

It's a dynasty game. You need to think both short-term AND long-term.

Yeah, this is my first team so I am reading as much as I can on this stuff. But this insight is further than I was thinking initially. Looks like it is gonna be a lot of fun.

Near the end of each season, I try to project my team 3 seasons into the future assuming no FA additions or trades. It's a pretty useful exercise in figuring out who's expendable.

I actually had a team hold out on trading me a guy with 1 year on his contract because he felt he could get the type a pick. The player in question was a solid 2b. There is no question he was a type a free agent in another year. I offered him a starting pitcher who would be a future middle of the rotation pitcher. He said unless I gave him my future ace he would wait and get the type a. To me that was extremely short sighted, because the type a pick he was going to get in return would only get him about what I was offering (at best). At worst it could get him a late 2nd or 3rd rounder if someone signed mutiple type a's in the same year..

Thanks for the tip. There is just so much. I may need to quit one of my jobs.

If you're looking at a guy who is likely to be Type B, or could go either way (A or B), that's one thing.

However if it's an almost surefire Type A, the comp pick is going to fall somewhere between 33 and 45ish. That's a pretty good pick. If you don't have any other Type As leaving, it gets better, as you're very likely to get a 37-40ish pick. You can't discount a pick like that, or consider it only a bonus.

Add in ~20% chance of a late #1 pick, plus ~30-40% chance of a #2 pick, and you've got a pretty attractive compensation package. Far, far different from a Type B guy, who is going to net you a single pick in the 45-60 range. I can certainly see treating that as only a bonus.

Finally, if your Type A guy doesn't get signed for compensation, then you just wait until the tail end of spring training and gobble him up on a cheap contract. You can go for a long-term cheap deal, which makes him a good value even with declining ratings (David Rijo- 3 yr/$1.4m for a 31-y-o reigning Silver Slugger), which totally changes MikeT's original formula by increasing his PAs to ~2000. And in Rijo's case, I might even get a Type B pick back when he's 34. Or of course, I could possibly trade him with that cheap contract and get a pretty good prospect back.

Or you can go for a 1-year cheap deal, which still adds an extra 400-550 PAs of value in MikeT's formula, and you get another bite at the comp pick apple the next season. Repeat until you either get your Type A comp, or you get a couple of extra seasons out of him before he drops to Type B and you get that pick.