Below .500 record Topic

isack24
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Posted by arssanguinus on 11/21/2011 10:44:00 PM (view original):
No, I really don't.  The fact that you can invent an exception to a system in an extreme case does not invalidate the system.

I'm not even sure that exception exists. Even with a #1 SOS, I don't think a sub-.500 team has a top-10 rpi.
11/21/2011 11:13 PM
isack24
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Posted by thewizard10 on 11/21/2011 10:37:00 PM (view original):
Never mind guys, just forget it. Nobody saw the point I was trying to make. It had nothing to do with the game.
I think you need to prove your premise first - that a team can have an elite rpi (elite does not mean top 35, more like top 10 or 15) and a losing record. Also, you're failing to acknowledge that rpi is just one factor, not the sole factor.
11/21/2011 11:18 PM
arssanguinus
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Posted by isack24 on 11/21/2011 11:13:00 PM (view original):
Posted by arssanguinus on 11/21/2011 10:44:00 PM (view original):
No, I really don't.  The fact that you can invent an exception to a system in an extreme case does not invalidate the system.

I'm not even sure that exception exists. Even with a #1 SOS, I don't think a sub-.500 team has a top-10 rpi.
I agree. . but even if you can somehow finagle the numbers to invent a one in a million scenario where that happens. . . that exception still doesn't mean the system is 'broken'.

11/21/2011 11:26 PM
arssanguinus
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Ok.  The way you could come up with that, and someone would have to compute it, would be a team that went 12 and 14, and the only losses their non conference opponents have are against that team, and their division of their conference wins all of the games against the teams in the other division of the conference.  I have, actually, no idea how the numbers from that contrived situation would come out.

SO. . .would have to be 6 - 4 in non conference and 6 - 10 in conference, winning all the games against the other division  - and all of the teams in your division winning all of their games against the teams in the other division - and losing all the games against your own division to come up with 12 - 14.

Their opponents would then have 12 + 30 = 42 losses out of 672 games (634 - 42), with a presumption of opponents opponents Win percentage being 500 . . .you would come out with a .712 RPI. or so.

Of course, that is a rather contrived scenario. . .




11/21/2011 11:46 PM (edited)
alblack56
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Posted by Iguana1 on 11/21/2011 8:32:00 PM (view original):
Posted by Weena on 11/21/2011 2:35:00 PM (view original):
It may not be written in the WIS rules but it is written in the NCAA rules that WIS follows in this area. Also, it is based on overall record so the 12-14 record you cite could still end up over .500 depending on your success in the CT.
I don't believe this 500 or better rule actually exists in the RL D1 NCAA.

Of course a team with a losing record getting an at-large has never happened, but in conversations I've had with people that have gone through the media selection process, they've said it never was brought up as an eliminating factor.
You're correct.  Two years ago, I wrote three ESPN columnists about the matter. The NCAA has no such restrictions but, of course, they'd never pick a losing team anyway.
11/22/2011 4:33 AM
bradriddell
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  I questioned a former member of the selection committee ealier today on the .500 rule. He said while it doesn't specify that a team must be at or above .500 over all, it is understood that they have to be. The guide lines that are passed out and ask to be followed states that a teams overall record is to be considered but teams do not have to be over .500 in conf. play. With that wording he says everyone just believed they do have to be above .500 over all. He also said he could not recall any team below .500 ever being considered at all. And since 1985 when the field was expanded to 64 the worst records to make the tourny as an at large was 1991 Villanova and 2001 Georgia both at 16-14. While in 2006 Missouri St. was left out of the dance with a RPI of 21.
11/22/2011 10:03 PM
thewizard10
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My apologies, I accidentally reported the previous post. Please disregard, sorry. I meant to hit reply.
11/22/2011 11:54 PM
thewizard10
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In response to the other gentleman, I remember both instances when Missouri St. had the 21 RPI and Georgia when they got in with a 16-14 record.
11/22/2011 11:55 PM
ike1024
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Missouri State was 20-8 prior to the NCAA tourney that year, so that doesn't prove your point.  They were left out in spite of a good record AND good RPI.

I assume you're talking about 2008 Georgia, which was 13-16 entering the conference tourney with an RPI nowhere near the top 25 (probably not even the top 50).  They won the SEC tournament and got an auto bid.  They NEVER would have made it as an at-large.
11/23/2011 10:32 AM
toysboys
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so for my 13-14 Iowa Crum team that has an RPI of 32 and SOS of 4.  I got the #1 seed in the PIT.  Just got this message from my AD, first time I've ever seen it:

Coach, I'm as upset and frustrated as you are! We should have gotten a National Tournament bid - the whole freak'n world knows it. I almost wanted to tell the PIT people to shove it, but I thought better of it and accepted the PIT bid. Let's at least when the PIT and prove those bozos wrong!

11/23/2011 11:57 AM
bradriddell
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Posted by ike1024 on 11/23/2011 10:32:00 AM (view original):
Missouri State was 20-8 prior to the NCAA tourney that year, so that doesn't prove your point.  They were left out in spite of a good record AND good RPI.

I assume you're talking about 2008 Georgia, which was 13-16 entering the conference tourney with an RPI nowhere near the top 25 (probably not even the top 50).  They won the SEC tournament and got an auto bid.  They NEVER would have made it as an at-large.
 I was just sharing some info not really trying to prove any points. But I was refering to the 2 worst teams to get at large bids and it was 1991 Villanova and 2001 Georgia. The 2008 team like you stated got the automatic bid. The 2001 Dawgs got an at large with a .533 win percentage and a first round loss in the conf. tourny to LSU and of course went on to take a loss to mizzou in the first round of the NCAA. I was just giving examples of some of the head scratching decisions that have been made in the selection process I even left out Utah St. not making it with a 25-2 record but I can't remember the year of course the RPI wasn't that great due to SOS but at 25-2 it couldn't have been terrible either.
11/23/2011 2:27 PM
mamxet
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around selection time, there often has been a debate about teams that are say 7-9 in a top conference getting in - I have never heard any discussion in real life of the possibility of a team that is less than .500 overall going to the Dance.

11/23/2011 3:39 PM
kmasonbx
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There is virtually no chance for a team to go 12-14 and have a top 10 RPI. The schedule would have to be the toughest schedule ever made for that to happen. I don't understand your argument at all. I don't see how if under .500 teams can't get in the tournament with a good RPI then RPI should be scrapped. Like has been said, RPI is one of the factors that decide who gets in. Personally I think RPI holds too big of weight simply because it's an easy system to manipulate, all you have to do is play lots of road games against teams that aren't so good but play in horrible conferences and should win a lot of games. You can go 9-1 or 10-0 agianst a fairly easy schedule but because you scheduled cleaverly it allowed you to win only 2 or 3 games in your conference and still have an NT level RPI despite having a losing record. 

 
11/23/2011 5:49 PM
mbalding
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I agree with KM.  Most elite div 1 schools in WIS are playing 10 road non-conf games.  At that point RPI becomes almost meaningless and should not be by far the largest determinent in who gets NT at large bids.
11/23/2011 8:22 PM
alblack56
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In 2003-04 a ranked Utah State team (25-2) had an RPI of 47 but missed the Dance.

As an aside, while looking this up, I found this tragic story.

 Perhaps the most notable event in Utah State basketball history occurred on February 8, 1965, with the tragic death of Wayne Estes. Estes was a 6'6" forward for the Aggies, and was the nation's second leading scorer in 1965, behind only Rick Barry, at 33.7 ppg. He had just amassed 2,000 career points with a 48-point showing in a home victory over the University of Denver, when he stopped at the scene of a car accident in Logan. While crossing the street, Estes accidentally clipped a downed power line with his head and was electrocuted. His full potential remains unrealized. The Los Angeles Lakers had planned on drafting him in the 1st round of the NBA Draft, where he likely would have gone on to with several championships with the team. Following Estes's death, he was posthumously awarded 1st team All-American honors.
11/24/2011 4:11 AM
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