It's about the quarter mark of the season, I'm awake WAY too early....so let's do a checkup on the draft in review:
Make that halfway now - time to repeat this exercise...
1) Rickey! (1985 NYY) - .312/.391/.410, 23/30 SB, 13 positive plays on defense
He's currently the leader in the AL MVP race and the GG leader at CF. It's what you hope for from your #1 pick.
Now: .265/.350/.352, 37/46 SB, 17 positive plays on defense.
No longer in the MVP race, no longer the GG CF for the AL, 2nd on the team in RC, 4th among regulars in RC27, midpack in RF for center...not so much in love with this pick right now.
2) Nolan Ryan (1991 TEX) - 4-3, 4.53 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 12 G (7 GS), .207/.280/.361 against
I originally intended for Nolan to be the low-inning ace of my staff. When it was all said and done, I decided to deploy him as a swingman, starting most of the time but available for long chunks of relief when needed. It's been needed. All in all, he's been OK - #6 in WHIP among starters, but giving up too many homers (8 in 45.2 IP).
Now: 6-6, 87 IP, 3.83 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 23 G (15 GS), .196/.281/.332 against.
2nd in the league in BA against among qualifiers, 4th in OBP against, 5th in SLG against, 3rd in K/9. He's even gotten a handle on the homer problem (only 3 allowed in the intervening 41.1 IP) Might be in the Cy Young also-rans if I didn't need him in relief so much. If we make it to the playoffs, I'll happily put him at the top of the rotation and see what happens from there.
3) Darrell Porter (1979 KCR) - .282/.381/.523, 8 HR, 25 RBI
I probably picked him too early, but he's been really, really good (2nd in RC among qualifying catchers, 1st in RC27). His CS% is not great (4/17), but there's only been 17 steals attempted against him - and he's started every game.
Now:.226/.367/.419, 10 HR, 37 RBI
Expecting him to keep up that torrid start was probably a bridge too far. He's still getting on base at a good clip, but he's now 6th in RC and RC27 among qualifying catchers. He's also thrown out 6 of the last 14 that tried to steal on him. 9th of 23 qualifiers in CERA. What I got in the first quarter was worthy of a #3 pick - this? Not so much...
4) Jerry Koosman (1969 NTM) 13 G, 9 GS, 1 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, .260/.326/.420 against
Koosman eats innings. I've had to go to using him as a reliever as well because I didn't draft enough relief IP. I made this pick (and the Ryan pick) before I had a definitive direction for my team, so this is on me. That being said, he's pretty much a league-average pitcher (except for the slugging - he gives up .420 SLG vs the league average .390). But he eats innings!
Now: 25 G (16 GS), 8-2, 1 SV, 2.98 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, .245/.309/.362 against
Koosman still eats innings. However, he's gotten much better in the 2nd quarter of the season - to the extent that he's now 4th in Cy Young balloting for the AL -- and the 6th All-Star starter (nestled between '92 Maddux and '85 Gooden, for crying out loud!). Yeah, any regrets I had previously have gone out the window for now.
5) Darrell Evans (1973 ATL) - .222/.330/.456, 9 HR, 36 RBI
I didn't draft this guy to be between Tony Perez and Tommy Harper in RC and RC27 among 3B (9th of 21 qualifiers in RC, 10th in RC27). His IsoPower (.234) is third among 3B, and his Secondary Average (.399) is second, so not all hope is lost, but it's hard to call a guy hitting .222 a successful pick.
Now: .241/.361/.486, 17 HR, 69 RBI
Probably about as much as you can expect from someone hitting .241. 7th in RC now (between Gary Gaetti and Gary Sheffield), 7th in RC27 (between Brett and Gaetti). 5 positive/1 negative play on defense, 15th of 24 qualifiers in RF. Not a disaster, but I'd hope for better from my #5 pick.
6) Jose Oquendo (1989 STL) - .236/.351/.300, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 10 R, 1 positive/1 negative play at 2B.
Yeowch! His hitting is about what I could reasonably expect (a guy with 1 HR all season playing in a park that suppresses singles), but I was expecting a lot better defense. He's 12th in RC27 among 2B and 15th (of 19) in RC - but you could throw a blanket over 7th through 17th in RC27 and come out with close to the same player. 0 errors is nice, but I was expecting more than a middle-of-the-pack Range Factor. I used a 6th pick (and blocked out STL) for this?!
Now: .213/.318/.265, 0 HR, 27 RBI, 21 R, 5 positive/1 negative play at 2B.
Yup. I'm still a moron for this pick. 19th of 20 qualifiers in RC, 18th in RC27. He's leading among qualifying 2B in IBB (hitting directly in front of the pitcher will do that for ya) and tied for the lead in SF. 14th in RF - this pick is just UGLY.
7) Doug Jones (1988 CLE) - 2-0, 10/13 SV, 0.74 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, .211/.260/.244 against
The Fireman Award standings care way too much about saves and save percentage. He's #5 in the Fireman category, but after looking at the first 4 in the AL, there's not one of them I'd trade Jones for. I don't see a good way to sort out just RP, but if he's not the best reliever in the league, he's at the forefront of the conversation. I'm really happy with this pick.
Now: 4-0, 19/22 SV, 34 G, 1.02 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, .228/,281/.263 against
Jones has moved to 3rd in the Fireman standings....and 3rd in the Cy Young standings overall. I like my odds when getting to the 8th inning tied or with a lead.
8) Gary Nolan (1971 CIN) - 5-2, 3.77 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, .247/.289/.346 against
A good #2 starter in the 8th round? Sign me up!
Now: 6-3, 17 GS, 3.87 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, .254/.309/..365 against
At the halfway point he's looking more like a mediocre #2 starter or a good #3. I'll still take it.
9) Brett Butler (1990 SFG) - .260/.381/.318, 22 R, 10/15 SB, Gold Glove LF.
Until recently, this would have been considered the ideal #2 hitter - gets on base, not much power, His RF (1.698) isn't great (13th of 20 qualifying LF), but he's tied with Chet Lemon for the most positive plays (4), and he hasn't committed an error. I consider this a pretty decent pick.
Now: .246/.369/.289, 40 R, 22/31 SB, Gold Glove LF.
Offense has regressed a bit, but he's now the clear leader in LF positive plays with 10 (vs. 0 negatives). Still 9th in RF (1.784), but both the number and the rank are improving. Still sporting a 1.000 fielding percentage. Still of the same opinion of the quality of the pick.
10) Bill Gullickson (1981 MTL) - 4-0, 2.33 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, .244/.277/.320 against, 7 pinch-running appearances (!)
I remember saying (or at least thinking) that I wouldn't be shocked if Gullickson was my best pitcher. 4th in the league among SP in WHIP, 3rd in OBP against, 2nd in ERA - he's not on the Cy Young leaderboard, but he should be IMHO. The pinch-running is just a (VERY) unexpected bonus.
4 picks in a row I'm happy with? Maybe I gained a clue at some point.
Now: 8-3, 16 GS, 3.18 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, .270/.304/.352 against, 13 pinch-running appearances
It doesn't look like he's going to turn out to be my best pitcher, Eh, I've been wrong before (see: Jose Oquendo). He's still better than league-average, and for the 4th starter I drafted, that's not a bad outcome. Gullickson has also scored 5 runs as a pinch-runner, so that's another minor point in his favor.
11) Sicks Stadium (1969 Seattle Pilots) - 252/.354/.371 batting, 18 HR - .236/.305/.345 opponent's batting. 19 HR
I'm not sure I know how to judge this pick fairly. I drafted the park to be good for my (relatively) low-average hitters with power, knowing that Ryan and Koosman were going to have problems being homer-prone. In fact, Ryan and Koosman have combined to allow 9 of the 19 dingers hit by the opponents at Sicks. I'm 13-10 at home, 12-8 on the road. All in all, I think this was the correct park for my strategy, but I drafted it WAY too early.
Now: .222/.328/.348 batting, 34 HR - .253/.320/.368 opponent's batting, 34 HR
Looking back, this pick seems worse and worse. Batting 30 points worse at home than your opponents is not a good sign. A 23-18 home record is nothing to grouse about, but it's not as good as the 25-15 road record. Last time I admitted to making this pick too early; this time I'm not even sure it was the correct pick.
12) Alejandro Pena (1984 LAD) - 2-4, 5.89 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, .291/.352/.369 against
Had I known I was going to be drafting a true 5th starter, and not just the 5th guy in my rotation, I would have waited about 8 rounds for this pick. He's not walking a ton of guys (15 in 44.2 IP), and he's not allowing homers (2 in 44.2 IP), but it's hard to be successful when the league's hitting .291 against you. This pick is just fugly at this point.
Now: 5-7, 17 GS, 5.26 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, .286/.334/.375 against
In my estimation, Pena's moved up from definite 5th starter material to decent 5th starter material. He's improved the walk rate while still not allowing a ton of homers. He's the one of my five starters that's demonstrably better at home than on the road. I'm not sure if there's enough evidence to try to load a bunch of starts for him at home, but it's definitely a consideration. I would have been happier spending about an 18th round pick on this level of performance, but it's getting better.
13) Terry Leach (1992 CWS) - 1-4, 18 G, 22.1 IP, 6.05 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 1/2 SV, .270/.365/.365 against
Yeah, no. He was supposed to be my top setup guy; instead, he's setting up the other team with baserunners. 10 BB in 22.1 IP just isn't gonna cut it. In comparison, Roberto Hernandez (1992 CWS) was taken one pick after Leach - his 1.10 WHIP and .211/.278/.324 against is more what I was looking for. So far, this looks like an awful pick.
Now: 3-5, 37 G, 44 IP, 4.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4/7 SV, .229/.304/.301 against
He's settled down on the walks a bit, and it's easier to look good with a .229 OAV than a .270 mark. Meanwhile, Roberto Hernandez at the halfway point looks an awful lot like Leach at the quarter pole. Heck if I know, but I'm not complaining.
14) Rick Monday (1970 OAK) - .268/.349/.412, 1 HR, 4/6 SB, 3 positive/0 negative plays, 2.380 RF
He's a better than league-average hitter in the big half of a platoon in RF, with an amazing range factor (it's #1 with a bullet among RF -- in fact, the difference between Monday and Clemente (2nd) is about the same as the difference between Clemente and Willie Stargell (12th)). His total RC is limited because of his playing time, but 5.07 out of your 2nd leadoff hitter is pretty good IMO.
Now: .257/.317/.383, 1 HR, 5/8 SB, 5 positive/0 negative plays, 2.120 RF
The range factor has come back a little closer to Earth, but it's still far and away #1 among RFs. That 5.07 RC27 has become 4.18 though - which is just mediocre for someone getting ~90% of his PA against opposite-handed pitching. I'm not sure I could reasonably EXPECT better than this, but I was certainly hoping for it.
15) Urbano Lugo (1987 CAL) - 0-0, 1/1 SV, 10.32 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, .273/.373/.659 against
He's the mop-up guy - whaddya expect? To be fair, if I had done this exercise after game 42 instead of game 43, he'd have a 5.79 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a .212 OAV. He's also lapping the field in K/9 on the team (and this team has the Ryan Express, remember?) with 11.5. It was a strategic pick in that I wanted to make sure I was in the top 3 for the supplemental round - come to find out, it wasn't necessary, but there's no way I could have known that at the time.
Now: 1-1, 1/1 SV, 11.09 ERA, 1.98 WHIP, .325/.413/.675 against
Nothing's changed about this pick (or my feelings about it) except the raw numbers.
16) Andre Thornton (1975 CHC) - .198/.373/.315, 3 HR, 10 RBI
17) Al Kaline (1972 DET) - .273/.312/.330, 1 HR, 8 RBI
Thornton's batting between Darrell Evans and Darrell Porter when he plays - maybe there's something to be said for pitching around a hitter? He's 7th in the league in BB, and he has 24 fewer AB than anyone in front of him. It's still hard to call it a success when you're 16th of 18 qualified 1B in RC27. Hitting under the Mendoza line makes it difficult to be a successful hitter in any context.
Kaline is pretty much the opposite. He's not walking much, he's not hitting for much power - but having a guy who can hit .270 in this park and in this context is helpful. He's a complete statue in RF, and he's not much better at 1B, but he's hitting .286 vs LHP in the 2nd-most AB (but 5th most PA) on the roster. I think this is a fair pick here.
Now (Thornton): .223/.357/.438, 12 HR, 34 RBI
Now (Kaline): .263/.317/.375, 4 HR, 20 RBI
Thornton traded in a few of his walks for homers. That's a trade I'll take from my #5 hitter. He's up to 14th of 18 in RC27 among 1B, with the 2nd highest secondary average among them (.420). It's a pretty common refrain, but I'd be happier if he was keeping his secondary skills while hitting on the proper side of .250.
Meanwhile, the numbers change, but the fundamentals stay the same for Kaline. Still a contact hitter without a ton of power, but his .264 AVG vs. lefties is the 2nd highest among the regular lineup vs. LHP, and his .391 SLG is 3rd. Still making the plays on the balls he gets to in the field, but still not getting to many of them.
18) Jerry Davanon (1976 HOU) - .286/.344/.286, 28 AB, 7/25 PH AB
19) Bruce Bochy (1986 SDP) - .000/.400/.000
Davanon had two jobs for this team: pinch-hit against lefties, and stand around the infield in emergency situations or blowouts. He's hitting .368/.400/.368 against lefties, and he's played a total of 8 innings in the field. It's not an exciting pick, but it's a useful one IMO.
What do you call the backup catcher for a guy who never rests? Boredom, thy name is Bruce Bochy. He's gotten 5 total PA. He's 0 for 1 as a PH, but WIS doesn't split out walks, so he could have as many as 3 PH appearances. He's caught 7 innings on the season. I drafted Bochy to be a competent backup catcher and someone who could run into a mistake occasionally (9 2B and 8 HR in 127 AB suggest he can do that)...I think that, by spending $1.58M on Bochy, I overspent by something on the order of $1.38M.
Now (Davanon): .278/.333/.315, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 14/49 PH
Now (Bochy): .300/.417/.400, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2/5 PH
For all you Jerry Davanon fans out there, odds are if you take in a 24 Lines game, you'll get to see him make 1 plate appearance. He's up to a whopping 17 IP in the field. Against lefties, he's hitting .343/.395/.400 - mostly as a pinch hitter (60 total PA, 49 PH AB). He still has the two jobs, and he's still handling them competently, which is all you can really ask from your role players.
Not much has changed with Bochy. Now he's at 12 PA - with 2 singles and a double to mix in with his two walks. Maybe Sparky should have him play more - he leads the team in RC27 with 6.86 (second at 6.80 - Urbano Lugo). Porter never takes a day off - so Bochy is getting really, REALLY good at spitting sunflower seeds all over the dugout.
20) Tom Burgmeier (1980 BOS) - 1-2, 22.1 IP, 6.04 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, .280/.330/.366 against
21) Tim Teufel (1983 MIN) - .375/.375/.563, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2/5 PH
I had been looking at Burgmeier for several rounds when I finally got around to drafting him. It seems to be that his ERA is a little inflated compared to where it should be with those hitting numbers against, but ERA is really a flawed measurement for relievers (and Burgmeier has given up 2 of the 7 unearned runs my team has given up thus far). He's doing a good job against lefties (.200/.259/.360), but 73 of the 100 batters he's faced have been righties. I have some faith that Burgmeier will clean it up some and bring that ERA down into the low-4s by the end of the season, but given the circumstances, I'm glad I didn't waste a higher pick on him.
I think Teufel was an inspired pick. He can hit a little, can run into a mistake every now and again, and plays acceptable defense at 2B - allowing Oquendo to move to 1B and shore up the defense there. It's clearly a small sample size artifact, but Teufel's RF at 2B is fully 1.5 better than Oquendo's (it would be leading the league by .9 or so if he had enough innings there). I may actually be the most proud of this pick - it's easy to draft Rickey!, and finding Gullickson in Round 10 was a gift, but this was something a little more unique.
Now (Burgmeier): 1-3, 3/4 SV, 44 IP, 7.16 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, .323/.380/.435 against
Now (Teufel): .273/.273/.455, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 4/12 PH
Can I get a mulligan on that Burgmeier prediction? Instead of bringing his ERA closer in line with his batting against numbers, ol' Tom is bringing his batting against numbers closer in line with his ERA. Righties are doing about the same now against Burgmeier as they were 1/4 of the way through the season; the lefties have just decided to join the flogging train (.292/.393/.417). I drafted him to be my Long A guy - I don't see the Long C option where he really belongs.
Teufel still has a good slugging percentage, and he's still got a very good range factor at 2B. However, an error every 18 innings seems counterproductive for a defensive replacement. Too clever by half? Perhaps.
22) Bill Castro (1978 MIL) - 1-0, 2/2 SV, 15 IP, 2.40 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, .218/.267/.291 against
23) Richie Hebner (1982 PIT) - .214/.389/.286, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0/0 SB, 0/6 PH
The tumblers just fell right for Castro. He's definitely due for some regression, but he'll still be a decent setup man, which is what I thought I was drafting.
If I knew then what I know now, I would not have drafted Hebner. He was a .300 LH hitter with unexpected SB prowess (4/4 in 70 AB in real life) who could stand around at all the corners. Little did I know that Sparky was going to make Bill Gullickson the designated pinch runner for the team. I would have been much better off picking someone like Larry McWilliams (122 decent LH innings, if somewhat homer-prone) or Cecilio Guante (27 IP in a RH specialist role) from the 1982 Pirates instead. Arrrrgh!!!
Now (Castro): 3-0, 30 IP, 2/2 SV, 3.30 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .225/.296/.297 against
Now (Hebner): .263/.440/.368, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1/1 SB, 0/6 PH
There's been a little bit of the expected regression for Castro, but nothing absurd. He's still a quality setup guy for 24 Lines, which is a bit more than he was drafted to be.
No, I still would have drafted someone else other than Hebner. The numbers look good, but it's only 25 PA. A few extra IP would have been MUCH more useful in the grand scheme of things.
24) Don Hood (1974 BAL) - 2-1, 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, .193/.303/.263 against
25) Tom Hutton (1977 PHI) - .240/.345/.320, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 2/10 PH
I got about what I was expecting from Hood. The OAV is probably a little lower than it will settle at by the end of the season, but he keeps the ball in the park and walks too many guys. Nice 2nd lefty in the pen.
I could say much the same about Hutton. It seems he's my designated lefty pinch hitter (at least in games where Monday starts in RF), and in that role he's not bad. There's really not much to complain about at this point in the draft.
Now (Hood): 3-3, 1/1 SV, 28.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, .255/.376/.345 against
Now (Hutton): .265/.333/.327, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 6/22 PH
I'd like to officially retract any good things I said about Hood in my previous update. Those are NOT the numbers of a good 2nd lefty in the pen - those are the numbers of a 2nd lefty that should be banished to AA. (If I could, I would....but I need the innings, sadly enough.)
Hutton takes care of business against lefties (.290/..353/.387) and pinch-hits a good deal. He's also grounded into more double plays (5 in 54 PA) than Rickey!, A-Fraud, Butler, Monday, and Kaline....COMBINED (4 in 1434 PA). Not sure that's indicative of anything - I just found it interesting....
26) Alex Rodriguez (2000 SEA) - .247/.371/.364, 4 HR, 27 RBI, 4/4 SB, 0 positive/2 negative plays, 5 errors, 5.49 RF
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, A-Roid? You're the #1 overall pick in the supplemental round. You're playing in the proto-Kingdome. You have the same SLG as....Dave Concepcion?! Your batting average is below Rick Burleson?! You've hit fewer home runs than Garry Templeton (who had 8 in real life)?!?!?!
It's not that a 5.27 RC27 is terrible - it's decent. But I didn't draft A-Fraud for "decent". I expected a superior hitter and a good fielder. What I've received is a decent hitter and a mediocre defender (1/4 of the way through the season, he already has almost half of his average errors from his performance history, plus he's already had more negative plays than his average). I think A-Hole is my own personal Joe Morgan - he never produces for me.
Now (Centaur): .236/.348/.370, 10 HR, 50 RBI, 50 R, 5/7 SB, 3 positive/2 negative plays, 8 errors, 5.403 RF
The good news: A-Roid is now outhomering Garry Templeton - 10 to 9.
The bad news: The slugging is now BELOW Dave Concepcion. The BA is now BELOW Rick Burleson (AND Bill Almon).
Second verse
Same as the first
A little bit louder
And a little bit worse
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot INDEED, A-Hole.
Overall, I'm confused by this team. As is my usual, my team is low in BA and high in walks. My team's OPS is 8 points below the league average, but my OBP is 20 points higher. Overall, it seems like my team should be slightly above average in runs - instead, I've scored 15 runs fewer than average. I just ran my team's stats through he Extrapolated Runs formula, and that says I should have scored 200 runs instead of the 183 I've actually scored.
My offense has gone from being average but underperforming to just plain bad. I've scored 340 runs in 81 games (league average in 374)...but when I run my offensive stats through Extrapolated Runs, I should have scored 338. An above-average OBP can't make up for the 2nd-worst SLG in the league.
Meanwhile, my pitching was supposed to be mediocre at best. I've given up 177 runs, which is 21 below the league average. Unfortunately, I haven't found a place in WIS that catalogs 2B and 3B against, so I had to extrapolate as best I could from my SLG against, H against, and the ratio of 2B/3B in the league thus far. Assuming I've given up 279 1B, 43 2B, and 6 3B (these numbers match my total hits against and total bases against), and running the subsequent numbers through the Extrapolated Runs Reduced formula (doesn't have things like IBB and SF/SH), it appears I should have given up 164 runs.
I did the hand-waving magic again (709 H, 56 HR, 98 2B, 13 3B, 542 1B makes the AVG and SLG match) then ran those numbers through the Extrapolated Runs Reduced formula - I should have given up 319 runs instead of the 343 I actually have. 338 RS/319 RA looks a bit better than 340 RS/343 RA, but not astoundingly so.
I ran my expected R and RA with games played into the Pythagenpat formula to calculate the exponent for the Pythagorean expectation, and based on XR for and XRR against, I should be winning at a .590 clip (!). That works out to 25-18, which happens to be my record right now. So, am I getting unlucky based on how many runs I should be scoring/giving up? Or am I getting lucky that, given my actual RS/RA, I'm outperforming my Pythagorean expectation?
Well, I shouldn't be winning at a .590 clip with my XR for and XRR against - instead, it should be .526. That works out to 43-38 as opposed to my actual record of 48-33 (and my actual RS/RA expectation of 40-41). My team's record in 1-run games is very good (thank you Doug Jones and Bill Castro!), and there have been a few games where Lugo and/or Burgmeier took a gas can to the final score....so I'm guessing that's the difference.
And this is how I've luckboxed my way into a 96-win pace at the halfway mark, and tied for the 2nd best record in the entire league.
(I only took 2.5 hours this time....I'm getting better at this!)