It happens to good players too?

Oh, I've had plenty of 5-8's and just had a 4-9 session Six of the losses came in the 9th inning or later, so that's fun. One of my wins was due to my teams playing each other.

Still better than an 0-10 session.

For the first time in round 5, I have twelve teams at .500 or better (out of 13). I know it won't finish this way, but still pretty cool.

Sim Gods: Activate losing streaks now.

It was just a matter of time, but I figured negative regression was coming. And when it hits, it hits hard. A 3-10 session, where I went 0-7 in close games (1-2 run margins). I was actually +3 in run differential in this 3-10 session... which says it all.

Followed up by a mediocre 7-6 session, except nothing mediocre about going 0-4 in 1-run games, where the losses included...

'26-27 Yankees give up 3 runs in 9th to lose 6-5
'60-61 Yankees blow 8th inning lead, lose in extras
'04-05 Cardinals pitching with 2 outs, nobody on in 9th, give up 6 runs, lose 12-11
'02-03 Giants give up 3 runs in 9th, lose 6-5.

My teams are falling apart. Just had a 1-9 session. Ugh.

18 games below .500 last 4 sessions:
4-6
3-7
1-9
3-7

Below .400 (39 wins in last 100 games) in last 10 sessions. Oof.

Outside of my League 4 teams (my two Dodgers squads and 03-04 Braves), it's been a terrible few days. Five of my teams are on current losing streaks of at least 3 games. And all 7 teams in Leagues 1 thru 3 have been one some sort of extended losing run.

LEAGUE 1
09-10 Cubs: L2, lost 9 of 12
10-11 A's: lost 11 of 16
10-11 Giants: L10

LEAGUE 2
21-22 Yankees: L3, lost 11 of 18
36-37 Yankees: L8

LEAGUE 3
48-49 Red Sox: L5
57-58 Braves: L4

LEAGUE 4 - my best league lately, but still not that great
03-04 Braves: L2, but won 9 of 13 before that
20-21 Dodgers: still just 7-7 in last 14
21-22 Dodgers: still just 4-4 in last 8

Sensing the urgency from the latest standings update with just 27 games to go ... my teams all immediately went out and lost.

Posted by schwarze on 9/26/2023 8:53:00 AM (view original):
For the first time in round 5, I have twelve teams at .500 or better (out of 13). I know it won't finish this way, but still pretty cool.

Sim Gods: Activate losing streaks now.

Since this post, the three teams that just made it to 500...

'26-27 Yankees 5-13
'72-73 Reds 7-11
'02-03 Giants 7-11

I knew it wouldn't last.

Average Win% now 2% lower than my average Exp%, which has cost me 27 wins across my 10 teams. Right now have 5 teams advancing but two are right on the fence. I have two other teams with Exp% above .500 but they are 9 and 15 games below .500 and are out of contention to advance.

Only 2 of my 10 teams are above .500 in 1-Run games. That hurts!

Comparison of actual winning% and expected winning% for owners with more than 1 team...
.

Owner	Teams	Wins	Losses	Win%	ExpWin%	Difference
-----------------------	-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------	-------------	--------------
redcped	5	353	357	0.497	0.523	-0.026
kstober	4	292	276	0.514	0.538	-0.024
beallendall	3	207	219	0.486	0.508	-0.022
ybjsports	3	210	216	0.493	0.513	-0.020
footballmm11	10	728	692	0.513	0.531	-0.018
ronthegenius	3	210	216	0.493	0.510	-0.017
steveizzy	2	155	129	0.546	0.552	-0.006
barracuda3	9	645	633	0.505	0.509	-0.004
schwarze	13	979	867	0.530	0.528	0.002
toysboys	9	614	664	0.480	0.477	0.003
nocomm999	2	125	159	0.440	0.432	0.008
pedrocerrano	8	584	552	0.514	0.506	0.008
emanes10	2	132	152	0.465	0.453	0.012
calhoop	2	115	169	0.405	0.392	0.013
glowguy	3	196	230	0.460	0.430	0.030
thejuice6	4	285	283	0.502	0.470	0.032

As somebody who is usually near the top of this list, it's amazing how great it feels to near average. In fact, most of my teams are very close to performing at the same level as their expected win%.
.

My Teams	League	Pick#	Win-Loss	Winning%	ExpW%	Difference
1913-14 Athletics w/Walter & Tris	1	19	66-76	0.465	0.495	-0.030
2002-03 Giants w/Derek & Alex	4	20	71-71	0.500	0.519	-0.019
1926-27 Yankees w/Ted & Rogers	2	1	69-73	0.486	0.498	-0.012
2002-03 Braves w/Pedro & Todd	4	15	79-63	0.556	0.565	-0.009
1941-42 Dodgers w/Elmer & Ted	2	20	75-67	0.528	0.529	-0.001
1944-45 Cardinals w/Hal & Snuffy	2	12	79-63	0.556	0.555	0.001
1960-61 Yankees w/Dick & Norm	3	7	80-62	0.563	0.558	0.005
1927-28 Giants w/Dazzy & Paul	2	17	79-63	0.556	0.550	0.006
1972-73 Reds w/Don & Darrell	3	14	70-72	0.493	0.486	0.007
1905-06 Giants w/Cy & Nap	1	15	80-62	0.563	0.553	0.010
1953-54 Dodgers w/Warren & Willie	3	19	74-68	0.521	0.504	0.017
1902-03 Pirates w/Bill & Ed	1	2	78-64	0.549	0.529	0.020
2004-05 Cardinals w/Randy & Barry	4	9	79-63	0.556	0.529	0.027
Averages		13		0.530	0.528	0.002

Posted by schwarze on 10/4/2023 8:58:00 AM (view original):
Comparison of actual winning% and expected winning% for owners with more than 1 team...
.

Owner	Teams	Wins	Losses	Win%	ExpWin%	Difference
-----------------------	-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------	-------------	--------------
redcped	5	353	357	0.497	0.523	-0.026
kstober	4	292	276	0.514	0.538	-0.024
beallendall	3	207	219	0.486	0.508	-0.022
ybjsports	3	210	216	0.493	0.513	-0.020
footballmm11	10	728	692	0.513	0.531	-0.018
ronthegenius	3	210	216	0.493	0.510	-0.017
steveizzy	2	155	129	0.546	0.552	-0.006
barracuda3	9	645	633	0.505	0.509	-0.004
schwarze	13	979	867	0.530	0.528	0.002
toysboys	9	614	664	0.480	0.477	0.003
nocomm999	2	125	159	0.440	0.432	0.008
pedrocerrano	8	584	552	0.514	0.506	0.008
emanes10	2	132	152	0.465	0.453	0.012
calhoop	2	115	169	0.405	0.392	0.013
glowguy	3	196	230	0.460	0.430	0.030
thejuice6	4	285	283	0.502	0.470	0.032

Not the board you want to be leading ...

Another 1-9 session. Cool.