Throw the Bum Out - Hall of Fame Edition Topic

eschwartz67
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OK.  I became Stat-MonkeyBoy.  I went to baseball-reference to try and back up my opinion that Catfish Hunter was every bit as good as Steve Carlton other than longevity.  Being a Mets fan, I HATED Steve Carlton.  He killed us.  Very similar to my hatred of Dan Marino because of his exploits against my beloved Jets.  Unfortunately, what I found out was....  Carlton was not only better, but it is difficult to make an argument for Hunter.  He is close to Carlton in many stats.  But better in none.  And he isn't close to Carlton in the rest of the stats (even dropping off the last 1000 or so innings from Carlton).

Here is what I found.....
  • In Hunter's best 5 seasons, he was 111-49 (113-117 in his other seasons combined) and won 1 Cy Young. In Carlton's best 5 seasons, he was 117-47 and won 4 Cy Youngs.
  • Hunter had 5 seasons of 110+ Adjusted ERA seasons.  Carlton had 12
  • Hunter had 3 seasons of more than a 2.5/1 K/BB ratio.  Carlton had 8
  • Hunter had 3 top 10 ERA seasons.  Carlton had 8
  • Hunter had 7 seasons where he was top 10 in CGs.  Carlton had 15.
  • Hunter had 6 seasons where he was top 10 in SOs.  Carlton had 11.
  • Hunter had only 3 seasons where he was top 10 in WAR/pitcher.  Carlton had 7.
  • Hunter's 10 most similar pitchers to him were Tiant, Pappas, Hershiser, Vida Blue, Kevin Brown, Welch, Drysdale, Jim Perry, Pierce & Rick Reuschel.  1 of which is in the HOF (Drysdale)
  • Carlton's 10 most similar pitchers to him were Sutton, Phil Niekro, Gaylord Perry, Blyleven, Spahn, Wynn, Seaver, Clemens, Maddux & Glavine.  All of whom are either in the HOF or shoo-ins for it (other than maybe Clemens because of PEDs).
  • Hunter's HOF Standards number (the one less affected by longevity) is 42 while an average HOFer is 50.  Carlton's is 58.
I think the most telling of all that were the similar pitchers by baseball-reference algorithms.  All 10 of the most similar pitchers to Carlton are HOFers, and only 1 of the most similar 10 to Hunter were HOFers.  The similarities are based on metrics, not W/L.  So, had Hunter not been on the dominant A's and then the 75 Yankees and did not compile those huge win totals from 1971-1975, he likely would not be a HOFer based on his other numbers.  Carlton would.
2/24/2012 11:08 AM
jrd_x
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Thanks. You said in one post what I've been trying to argue across 33 pages.
2/24/2012 11:15 AM
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jrd_x
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ERA+ adjusts for league (and therefore DH).

Loaded with compilers? Yep. You know why? It's very hard to compile good stats in the major leagues.
2/24/2012 11:22 AM
MikeT23
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Are you in any way implying that 1984-1988 Carlton was good?

What E did was cherrypick.   Top 5 seasons?   Higher peak.    The rest are nothing more than compiled stats.   If Player A pitches 15 seasons and Player B pitches 23 seasons, which one do you think will have more Top 5/Top 10 finishes in any category?

2/24/2012 11:26 AM
jrd_x
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So anybody can just stick around and compile top 5 finishes? Sweet.
2/24/2012 11:28 AM
eschwartz67
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Mike....  I really, REALLY wanted Hunter to be better than Carlton.  I hate Steve Carlton.  But the numbers dont support him being better, or even close to Carlton.  In the same paragraph, sure.  In the same sentence....  no.

I used adjusted ERA as well, Mike.  It accounts for NL/AL variance.  I also used WAR/Pitcher which accounts for League.  And it is not close.  You have brought a water pistol to a gun fight if you try to argue that Catfish Hunter was Steve Carlton's equal.  Career-wise incuding longevity, there is not a chance you could argue it successfully, and without the longevity...  just using  Carlton's career up until 1984...   you still can't  All those stats denoted by the
  • .
in the post above were compiled by Carlton through 1984.  All of them.   And Carlton won.  By a lot.  And I wasn't happy to see it.  I hate the guy.  But you cant argue that Hunter was his equal.  Just can't.  At least not successfully.

And I am a huge baseball fan who watched both of them during the 70s, and Carlton into the 80s.  And it was my opinion before looking at the stats that they were equals.  I even tried to (to quote Mike) "cherrypick" stats that would show Carlton to be inferior.  But they don't exist.

2/24/2012 12:21 PM (edited)
eschwartz67
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Why would I cherrypick to prove a point.....  when I went to the site to prove the OPPOSITE???   LOL
2/24/2012 11:31 AM
MikeT23
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Different leagues.  Top 5 in the AL may be much different than top 5 in the NL.   You're attempting to compare across leagues with individual accomplishments.   Even the stat-nerd will say "Too many variables".

2/24/2012 11:32 AM
eschwartz67
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You're right.  It is tougher to be top of league in NL.  You need better numbers.
2/24/2012 11:33 AM
jrd_x
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ERA+ adjusts for league differences.
2/24/2012 11:36 AM
MikeT23
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ERA+ wasn't the only item listed.

It's also easier to compile better numbers in a league that lets a pitcher hit.   And Top 5/Top 10 is an entirely different animal anyway.  If the AL has 12 hitters hit 42 homers and the NL has 1, is #2 in the NL the "better" than #11 in the AL?

2/24/2012 11:40 AM
Jtpsops
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In Cy voting from '72-'75, Hunter was 4,3,1,2 respectively. In the three he didn't win, Palmer won 2, Perry won 1. Only Carlton's '72 season was better than those three performances Hunter lost out to.

And I'll just throw this out there - Carlton played on some crappy teams. Is it possible opponents rested stars more against him/his teams, since they knew they could beat them otherwise? Not to take away from Carlton, but just on the surface, I'd say it's more likely Hunter got his opponents' best more often than Carlton did.

2/24/2012 11:46 AM
jrd_x
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Grasping. At. Straws.
2/24/2012 11:46 AM
eschwartz67
Posts: 2003 (0)
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It comes down to this, Mike....  Catfish Hunter was an ordinary pitcher for 10 of his 15 seasons.  He was a stellar pitcher in 5 seasons from 1971-1975.  Those 5 seasons placed him in the HOF.  And deservedly so.  From 1971-1975, Catfish Hunter was among the top handful of pitchers in the American League (Perry, Blyleven, Hunter, Ryan, Palmer, Blue).  Carlton had many more AS seasons than just 5.

Hunter had five 20 win seasons and two seasons over 13 other than those.
Carlton had six 20 win seasons and SEVEN seasons over 13.  His ERA in those 7 seasons were 3.62, 2.17, 3.22, 2.84, 3.56, 3.11 & 2.98

And it doesn't include 1981 when Carlton was 13-4 with a 2.42 ERA in 190 innings in a 110 game season

Carlton was better.
2/24/2012 11:53 AM (edited)
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