NAC Conference - Page 4 - Allen

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#6. Presque Isle 16-12 RPI 214 495 Rated

Presque Isle could be very competetive this season as they have 8 upper-classmen. Add to that a couple sohps and a couple decent recruits and they could very well figure in the mix in the South for the next couple seasons. In looking at PI's schedule, they are ranked as high or higher than everyone on the NC. They should come into conference play with a decent record.

#5. Mount Ida 13-14 RPI 203 489-wo (507 rated)

Ida is short on upper-classmen, They do look however, to be on course to be a force for the next several seasons in the South as well. They added one defensive specialist to their allready pesky defensive unit. In looking at Ida's schedule,,,,,, every team they play in the NC is rated as high or higher than them... a 5-5 NC finish would be awesome as their schedule is a killer!

10/8/2007 11:37 PM

mizzou77

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Tuesday

aight....

#4. Farmington 14-14 196RPI 494 Rated

The Rabid Beavers are looking very good as they enter the NC portion of their schedule. It will be little surprise to anyone they play that their strength lies under the basket. They are gonna be a load on the boards. If they can develop an outside game to compliment that they will go quite aways this year. They didn't have any openings to fill in recruiting, so they just get a little older and wiser from last season. Their IQ's are very solid so I look for them to be a force this season in the South Division. Their NC schedule isn't too imposing as they have about half that are rated equal or below them... 3 teams are about the same rating and 2 will be real challenges.

#3. Castleton St. 17-12 187 RPI 467 - 2w/o = (496) rated

Castelton St. is listed here because they won 17 games, had one of the lower RPI's and have 8 returning upperclassmen. Biggie has been AWOL for the last week and hopefully has returned to guide his boys now that the regular season is here. Castelton's NC schedule is one of the easier of the conference and he should do fairly well in the first 10 games. I think Farmington's RPI may end up lower by seasons end, but Biggie may win as many or more games and should again play a factor in the North Standings.

#2. Lasell 24-5 RPI 54 511 - w/o = (532) Rated

The Lazers were stuck in reverse the last part of the season... They seemed unstoppable... (ez sched...cough cough)... the first part of the season and then began to unravel as they could only beat the average NAC opponent by like 20-25 by seasons end. They return nearly all of the team, and if they can get it rolling again,,, should be a top 20 ranked team by mid-season. Being that it's Jr here I am usually harder on him than most.... however I even began to feel sorry for the Lasers near the end as they began to spew spew... into their early demise..... then when fate handed them back to back press teams in the NC I knew they were not long for the tourney! Oh well,,, this is another year and they,,,, like Husson need to make a good run this year as we both graduate 5 seniors... Lasell and Husson may again be pretty tough in the North.... but the light is pretty bright at the end of the tunnel for everyone else soon...

#1. Husson

28-4 RPI 13 512 Rated

I have 5 seniors..... a harder NC schedule than last season... and 2 less good defenders. As far as recruiting we got what I would rate as a couple high B kids, but they were what we needed badly for the future, and got the little soph to take a RS so our offseason was very successful for us in a limited sort of way. Prolly had our best season last year, but ya never know.

10/9/2007 12:03 AM

kmfloyd

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Talk Show Host (TSH): Thank you for calling Sports Talk...

Caller: Um yes, am I on?

TSH: Go ahead caller and turn down your radio.

Caller: Yes, do you think U-Farm has a shot this year?

TSH: Well, the jury is still out on whether the last season was a fluke or whether Coach Floyd has begun the long-awaited revival of the Beavers.

Caller: um, I think they're going to be awsome this year...I mean Beaver Fever is gripping the campus...and Coach Floyd is like the coolest coach ever...do you know the booster gave me....I mean him a Rambler last season as a thank you? But he could really use a big screen TV.

TSH: Coach Floyd is that you?

Caller: Don't be silly...I think the coach is sitting on his porch waiting for the next edition of the mizzou musings...the Beavers are being reviewed Tuesday...

TSH: It really sounds like you, Coach.

Caller: [crackle] Oh, I think I'm losing the cell signal...[crackle]...go Beav........

10/9/2007 9:40 AM

kujayhawk

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I think you're slightly overrating me, mizzou77. And I think you're severely underrating Elms. I think Elms can make it to postseason play this year.

Johnson State *should* also be ahead of us -- but if texaskaze refuses to play his best team and instead chooses to play four guys who all pass the ball to Koffer, I'm not going to argue too hard that they deserve to be ranked ahead.

Anyway, here are the eagerly anticipated Thomas Predictions:

We finish non-conference play at 2-8. I think I know where one of the wins is coming from, but I don't want to provide bulletin board material for the other team. No idea where the second win is coming from but I don't see us losing all of the other 9 games.
6-10 record in conference play. We're rebuilding, but we're a year ahead of a few teams so we will win a few conference games.
Michael Scott is selected Confrerence Freshman of the Year.
Michael Scott is the only Thomas player to make an All-Confrence team (honorable mention).
Despite my best efforts, neither William Richardson or Brian Trimble will transfer at the end of the season.
After 3 seasons of 20 minutes of practice for both O/D, Brian Trimble will have improved his freshman year's 'F' in the Flex to a B- and his 'C-' in the Zone to a 'B'.

10/9/2007 1:23 PM

mizzou77

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These aren't really a predicted order of finish at all.... I just used more or less last years rankings, combined with the team rating for this season to come up with an "average" placement, simply for listing purposes.

I still believe Lasell is the best team in the conference this season as well as last... he just can't seem to beat us yet..... therefore, he gota B da #2.... and Elmo... he gota string some W's together to get up da ladder.

10/9/2007 9:35 PM

elmore686

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exactly.. last season i had my share of close games and could have feasibly been around .500 (with wins over a few decent teams)... but, without the W's it'll always be a "coulda-shoulda-woulda"

10/10/2007 1:22 AM

kujayhawk

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For giggles I decided to see how "hard" our schedules are. I used the betting lines (and yes I know how bad they can be). Here's how hard we've challenged ourselves from easiest to hardest over the first seven games.

Here's the average spread over the first seven games:

Castleton State: 9.79 point favorite
Maine Farmington: 8.21 point favorite
Husson: 7.86 point favorite
Maine Presque Isle: 7.29 point favorite
Lassell: 2.79 point underdog
Johnson State: 7 point underdog
Maine Maritime Academy: 8.79 point underdog
Thomas: 12.79 point underdog
Mount Ida: 14.93 point underdog
Becker: 16.64 point underdog
Salem State: 20.93 point underdog

Conference wide, we are a 5.02 point underdog in an average game. In the first 72 games it has been a pick 'em twice. 27 times we've been the favorite to win and 43 times we've been the dog.

Since the conference is currently 27-45, we've ever so slightly underachieved.

Of course since the sim bookie has no idea how to set lines, this all means nothing. Like I said above, just for giggles.

10/15/2007 2:00 PM

rcoffey45

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Quote: Originally Posted By kujayhawk on 10/15/2007
Lassell: 2.79 point underdog

I get no love. I'm recieving votes @ the start and lose to the #15 which knocks me right out. Then 5 wins later, 2 of which are over ranked teams, still nothing. If a win tonight doesn't do it, then I give up on em lol.

10/15/2007 2:12 PM

mizzou77

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My RPI/SOS/Scheduling notes:

The way RPI is currently figured is:

25% of the equation is W/L Pct (example) 7 wins 3 losses = 70%

a home win is x .8 and a road win is x 1.2 (so a home win is not as valuable as a road win). a home loss is x 1.2 and a road loss is x .8 ( so a road loss doesn't hurt as much as a home loss does).

Now,,,, 50% of the RPI is from your opponents records.... total their win/loss %. The same + or - for road and home applies here as well.

The scheduling of your NC opponents is huge in trying to gain a good RPI. You do not have any control over your conference schedule, therefore the only input you have as it pertains to RPI is scheduling your 10 NC games.

(if your other conference mates understand the system and schedule accordingly), it is huge as well as you play a minimum of 17 games against these guys and the better record they have entering Conference play, the better the over-all RPI's will be.

The last 25% is from your opponents, opponents W/L percentages with the same .8 to 1.2 multiplier applied.

Now all this seems complicated... but the main thing to get here is:

#1. 25% is your W/L record (win more than you lose).

#2. (Huge) 50% is your opponents W/L record (Schedule teams that will win more than they lose!).

Note: I didn't say... schedule great teams... I said schedule teams who will have a winning record!

#3. Don't under any circumstances toss in 2 or 3 sure wins (teams rated 440 or below when your team rating is near 500). A 0-26 team or two will be a VERY heavy weight on that RPI.

#4. Schedule the harder teams on the road (if they'll let you). Schedule the sure wins at home. A 3-3 record on the road = 60% A 3-3 record at home = 40%.

We are currently trying to raise our Conference to a higher level. The best way to quickly effect this is to schedule the 10 NC games we have in a very smart way.

Last Season I cried out for us to schedule harder to help our RPI's... that was my mistake. We need to schedule smarter.. rather than harder. I would love to see everyone enter Conference play at .500 or better.... It can be done. especially since most everyone's team is on the rise.

I will post in the next post what I believe to be a good stratagy for getting those 10 games lined up so you can go 6-4 or 7-3 minimum.

10/16/2007 11:28 AM

kmfloyd

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I have to make this thread "must reading" everyday.

10/16/2007 11:50 AM

mizzou77

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LOL.... I will now address my ideas/opinions on the ole' NC schedule. I believe this is the most important part of improving our Conference overall. The fastest quick-fix for us rising into the top 5 or so Conferences, is everyone understanding what it takes to get their RPI up to a decent level.

WINNING.... LOL of course... and winning is recruiting better kids, developing them, and game-planning. However, you still then need some luck to win those games. Lets look at making your luck better by putting you into a position to win those games before the season starts.

This is all IMHO obviously! Take it for what it's worth.

The most important part of scheduling In My Humble Opinion, issss,,,, being able to judge your own teams strengths and weaknesses. Look at what your team will look like next season, and decide how strong/weak you will be. This can be as simple as taking your beginning rating... adding 35 points and subtracting who will graduate. Then you have to decide how you will be replacing those seniors.

My team will be my example... I will graduate 5 seniors... basically all 5 starters, I should suck next season, and take a real hit... I don't think so. I have been preparing for this for 2 seasons. I have developed 3 different players who can/will play multiple spots to fill whatever holes recruiting will leave me. I will be rebuilding... no question, however, I don't think I will drop below .500 for the season.

Now will I schedule a tough NC schedule next season.... prolly not as hard as the last 2. I won't be as good and will be doing some shuffeling around the first 10 games... 6-4 against decent competition would be fine.

When I schedule I allways like to have several "fun" games against the same 4-5 people each year. These are coaches who are usually Dynasty types who allways will have a decent team. I then round out my other games to fit how good/bad I think I will be. ( if you have 4-5 good coaches, who schedule other good coaches, the RPI will sometimes look decieving when it first comes out). As these good teams then go into their conferences and beat up on weaker opponents your RPI goes down.

I wan't to come into Conf play with 6 to 8 wins. This may or may not be decided by whether my team is good or not, but by how my NC schedule and my LUCK has been. My goal is to not be 3-7 or 2-8 and have a 545 rated team. I feel if my team rating is at 500 -w/o's I can be competitive if I don't dig myself too big of a hole to start.

I try to schedule the better teams in the last 5 games, not the first 5... unless I am returning everyone. Then I may want to "attack" some good teams before they are set. Husson is built on speed, disruption, and massive FT's. My goal is to find the players that are playing well and maximize their minutes. I am a firm believer in players going thru hot/cold spells. Some may last an entire season :(.... When that happens I try to adjust.....

10/16/2007 12:11 PM

kmfloyd

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I look at my next seasons roster and see holes...holes...holes. I don't return any PGs. I'll probably look ot go the JUCO route or get a really good Fr and take my lumps. The backup plan is to play one of my SGs at the point. If York stays, he could be a valuable asset off the bench. I just have to hide that 7 DE. Although 2 SFs return, Tucker is not the answer and Deloera is a career backup at best. I should have cut someone and used my reserve funds to find a replacement this season, but I didn't. Nothing back at PF either. What is my strength this year will be one of my challenges next season. Look for more JUCO help here, but I want to be sure to have a good mix of Fr, too. I feel better as C, but I just won't have muchflexibility next season.

Needless to say, I am scheduling a little easier...(smarter) next season.

10/16/2007 2:07 PM

jtt8355

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just peeked in for a quick second... hey all from the NAC! floyd - pump Griffiths with tons of BH and Pass. You have two other SG's and with his 33 per, you won't be giving him the rock anyways. have a good one!

10/16/2007 2:37 PM

kmfloyd

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I reporter for the Maine Farmington school paper has uncovered this picture of coach floyd trying to fire up the Beaver nation.

10/18/2007 2:01 PM

mizzou77

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KM... do you know Biggie outside of HD? or did he just happen to join us at the same time you did?.. he seems to be gone right now... just curious if you know him?

10/22/2007 11:41 PM

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