Quote: Originally Posted By coach_billyg on 1/05/2010
i didn't say it wasn't rare. i said about 1 in 5,000 times two teams play, you will see about a 40 point swing or more. that is rare, but not exceptional, and not even close to enough to hang the hat of a broken sim on.

further, your assessment of the relative likelihood is off. i don't claim to know everything or anything close, but i am pretty confident this case was more likely than the 40 point swing, and at the very worst, similar. it was 43 points, yes. also, it was hca flip, which is about 3 points off neutral at that level. those 9 extra points IMO are not as important as the factors i previously mentioned, and the difference in the two teams at the times they played. Billy, the hca improved for Wentworth Tech, the team that won the first game by 41, not Bridgewater State...the HCA got BETTER for the team that won by 41...you're getting mixed up here.

also, you say you feel bad btown got screwed. his big win was vastly more unlikely than his loss. Agreed the chance of him losing that game was relatively small, but not even close to negligible. you still have to lose a game you are a 90% favorite to win 10% of the time. i don't think it is a travesty. obviously, nothing against btown or his team... i am sure he knows that, we've talked before. but i just wanted to throw that disclaimer in there as a precaution. It was a 43 point swing...unjustifiable in my eyes.

Quote: Originally Posted By metsmax on 1/05/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 1/05/2010
This kind of extreme randomness shouldn't happen, and the game should be less random than real life. Please stop comparing the sim to real life...2 completely different cans of worms.

why should HD have less variability than actual college hoops - why should the game be designed in that way? Because HD player ratings are concrete, thus you know better/more concretely what they're going to do for you rather than in real life where there are no such ratings and there are a lot more outside factors that can and affect the game more than in HD. other than that you prefer it - why is that better - please stop making declarative statements about how things should be without a reason My statements aren't without reason...all video games are less random than real life for the aforementioned reasons.

Quote: Originally Posted By metsmax on 1/05/2010




profoundly wrong colonel - read what I wrote - the AVERAGE of 1000 independent simulations would be much less likely to lead to extremes - right - basic probability - if you repeat the experiment you get more normal results from an average of many repetitions - see for example tossing a coin....

I apologize for misreading your comment...someone corrected me earlier, but I read it wrong and I'm sorry.

so what, HCA might be 3-5 points in whatever direction applies - now and then there are in real life and, in my view, should be expected to be in HD, big variations

The direction of the HCA certainly matters...and if that second game swings 3-5 points, btown's Wentworth Tech team wins by 1-3 points.

YOU prefer less variability than in real life - I think the game has been designed to try to simulate real life - that means not only simulating the average results but also in terms of variability - I'd hope - but dont know that they aim for simular dispersions of results and the like - why should the designer and the users want less variability?

Video and text games are naturally going to have less variability than real life because of the ratings as I said earlier. The game should operate as the real life game does, and that bears out in HD. What I'm saying is, extra randomness to factor in on or off nights, coach/player emotion, temperature of building, hositility of crowd, etc shouldn't be included in games like these...what I'm saying is, normal randomness is proper and enough. Oddities like that 43 point swing make me believe that the sim "takes a ****" every once in a while, and that they should never happen. Pseudo v. True randomness.

he's fully entitled to be disappointed, but he shouldnt be ****** if he heeds the analytic perspective and realizes its part of the game - with enough games SIMed some have this sort of result - sometimes it helps ya and sometimes it doesnt - folks who want something more predictable might not like it - I've been thrilled when I've had the benefit of an outlier, especially when I think that some tactics that I pursued in game planning and roster construction may have enhanced the chances of that sort of upset - folks are entitled to prefer a game with fewer upsets and fewer unlikely results - but that doesnt make it wrong unless there is a - not yet articulated - reason why it is wrong or unacceptable - it just isnt what you prefer

I'm all for randomness, just not unjustifiable random BS. I'm not asking for predictability, I'm asking for normal randomness, and that doesn't seem to have occured here. All I want is for this game and all the rest on this site to operate with normal, true as possible randomness...we want the same things, you're just seeing my argument for something that it isn't.

Quote: Originally Posted By metsmax on 1/05/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By schroedess26 on 1/05/2010

by the way look at the defense run by his opponet both games. Looks like game 1 was a full court press and game 2 was a man 2 man. This would be a huge difference when it comes to how well his team performs.

I didnt look at the game, only what was said about it - different defenses? much much less surprisin

Quote: Originally Posted By btown on 1/06/2010
I didn't mean to start a huge debate. I appreciate the feedback though. I was just looking for opinions and maybe a way to prevent such things from happening to me in the future. I am still trying to learn the game. and I try to learn a little something from each game.

I understand that in basketball strange things happen. when I look at it now after a few days I realize I still have a lot to learn before I advance in this game. But when looking at it at first I was ready to feildgoal kick my laptop out the window.

I cant help it. I hate to lose. If my team was the absolute worst team in the sim and I lost to the #1 ranked team by 1 point I would still get upset at first.

Quote: Originally Posted By metsmax on 1/06/2010
hogwash

1. reasons were not stated - now stated - What?

2. any evidence all simulations are less random? All of the actual human game reasonings: coach/player emotion, crowd noise, referee bias, temperature/conditions of stadium, "on"/"off" nights, a lack of hard player ratings, etc.

3. we know that HD includes intentional randomness - how much do they have that dialed to? we dont Of course there's intentional randomness, all games need randomness to operate, its just that you think bizarre outliers are ok and justified, and I completely disagree. If I somehow found out that this scenario occured because of and through normal randomness, I would shut up, seriously....but the results really suggest that some kind of clustering or something went wrong with the RNG in one of those games.

4. as someone noted, in HD there is no adjustment during the game - which increases variability I'm not taking exception with this premise...I'm taking exception with the fact that it led to a 43 point swing.

5. in HD we coaches make decisions - which leads to nonrealistic and perhaps - dont know - volatile results Right, and I accept this, I just have a problem with this one particular series where there was a 43 point swing in 2 games.

6. still no answer to basis for your assertions that there SHOULD be less variability - that it is better with less - why? other than your preference for an easy cookie cutter game? I'm not saying there should be less variability, I'm saying randomness should be the same for every game....there shouldn't be more randomness in some games and less in others. We seem to have had a bout of excessive randomness in one of the 2 games.

5.

Quote: Originally Posted By metsmax on 1/06/2010
I hear ya colonel, and I recognize that I wont change your mind - I think this is within the range of expected variability in real life and HD - especially given the big IQ change

You have different variability expectations and therefore your expectations are not met

We disagree on those expectations. I propose that we agree that neither set of expectations is right or wrong.



Fair enough. I think we really agree on more than we realize, its just these extreme, bizarre situations that are the sticking points....I just think that the game/site has randomness problems at times and this to me is/was exhibit A.

Take care.