Quote: Originally posted by dalter on 4/18/2010a_b, I don't think it's really legitimate to say, "Well, once in 1994 a team came back from a 31-pt deficit with 16 mins to go, so ..." If we've gotta go back 16 years to legitimize a result, to me that's a problem. The good news is that we don't because we see games with disaparate halves (like the Clemson-Illinois example from this season) all the time.colonels, please try to read (and re-read and re-read) dahs' point about sample size. Then read it 10 more times. If you have even the smallest, most basic inkling of how stats and probability work, you'll understand that when you're dealing with such a small sample size (i.e. one half), it's quite common to see discrepancies.

Quote: Originally Posted By dogget on 4/18/2010
If a pick 'em game has one team lead by 40 at the half and the game goes to OT, what do we call that? A double aberration or "I told you it was even."?

Quote: Originally Posted By dahsdebater on 4/18/2010
Colonels, one thing you clearly fail to understand is that the burden of proof is always on the person in the minority viewpoint, particularly when that viewpoint challenges the foundational beliefs of a community. I've already admitted that I can't and probably will never be able to prove my belief, it doesn't mean that I should just give it up though. Like a lot of you, I think the sim works right a lot of the time...I gripe about maybe one or two games a season, but for the most part it works well enough. My point is, is that you all can't prove that the randomness is good, and I can't prove that it isn't. I'm not asking you to prove that the randomness is good, I'm just saying, your clue about the sim is just as good as mine...WE DON'T REALLY KNOW...all we do/can do is presume. It is a foundational belief of this community that the SIM operates in an imperfect but fair manner which uses a reasonably reliable source of random numbers. For those of us with solid reasoning skills, to think otherwise would be to leave the game. If that's not true this is a total waste of money. We don't have to prove to you that the game utilizes random numbers. That's the reasonable argument. WiS has no reason to screw us. So you have to prove that they DON'T use random numbers. I should stop replying to everything right now because I'VE NEVER SAID THIS AND THIS IS NOT MY ARGUMENT. I never said that WIS doesn't use random numbers...unbelievable how terrible your reading comprehension is...

What you seem to be totally unable to grasp is sample size. At most each team takes a few dozen shots in each half. In the end, the "its only one game" excuse is a rather weak one and you can basically say that for everything. At what point does "its only one game" not apply anymore? At what point does the sim become accountable? Its easy just to say upsets happen on WIS' end, while not bothering to see if everything worked correctly. What happens in that many chances can easily be misrepresentative of a true norm. Misrepresent it one way in one half and the other in the other half and you have a fairly large discrepancy in the outcome of each half. True randomness will inevitably lead to such outcomes unless you put together much larger samples. I am comfortable and 100% happy with EVERY outcome that happens with true randomness...I've said this before. I don't trust the fact that WIS' sim engine(s) work well/right all the time, for whatever reason(s). If you had two teams play two 200-minute halves and there as a 350-point swing I'd be much, much more surprised. Still not totally shocked, but more surprised. The 41 point swing in the same game is a joke...if you back that, we're done here.

Quote: Originally Posted By a_in_the_b on 4/18/2010The largest comeback in NCAA college basketball history occurred on February 16, 1994, when the University of Kentucky Wildcats overcame a 31 point deficit to defeat the Louisiana State University Tigers 99-95. LSU led 68-37 with 16 minutes in the game and Kentucky wound up winning in regulation 99-95

THat is. . . what. . a thirty five point swing from the first twenty four to the last 16? And since you made a HUGE deal about the difference between 25 and fifteen and 20 and 20 being insignificant no, Colonels, you don't get to use that excuse, although no doubt you will try. 35 points in sixteen minutes is pretty equivalent to forty points in twenty minutes, perhaps even MORE extreme.

Quote: Originally Posted By dalter on 4/18/2010
a_b, I don't think it's really legitimate to say, "Well, once in 1994 a team came back from a 31-pt deficit with 16 mins to go, so ..." If we've gotta go back 16 years to legitimize a result, to me that's a problem. The good news is that we don't because we see games with disaparate halves (like the Clemson-Illinois example from this season) all the time.

colonels, please try to read (and re-read and re-read) dahs' point about sample size. Then read it 10 more times.

If you have even the smallest, most basic inkling of how stats and probability work, you'll understand that when you're dealing with such a small sample size (i.e. one half), it's quite common to see discrepancies.

Quote: Originally Posted By dalter on 4/18/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 4/18/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By dalter on 4/18/2010

So let's clarify: You've backed off your stance that I am pro-WIS, and amended to say that I am pro-WIS when it comes to the sim. Is that correct? You're right in saying that I backed off of the "you're pro-WIS" stance...I did that a long time ago really. What I said instead of is that whenever I see you post about game results that people are ******** about, they're ALWAYS in defense of the game....show me a thread, a post, anything where it isn't?

And that's despite the fact that you've seen me say many, many times that the sim is flawed? Saying the sim is flawed is an extremely broad generalization that basically says nothing. If you can't elaborate about how the "sim is flawed" then your opinion is effectively worthless.

Just want to make sure we're on the same wavelength here.

You telling me that my opinion is worthless.

Holy f'n ****.

Nice to see that you sit here just waiting to be offended. If you re-read the entirety of that comment, it makes perfect sense. If you say that the sim is flawed, but don't elaborate HOW the sim is flawed or HOW YOU THINK the sim is flawed, then your opinion is worthless....that's senseless ******** that does nothing...that's yelling at the TV when no one can here you....this isn't dalter specific...THIS IS ANYONE AND EVERYONE. Its easy to say that something sucks...if you can't tell me how/why, then your complaint is rather worthless and will be short lived. Take a stand.

Quote: Originally Posted By a_in_the_b on 4/18/2010

Quote: Originally posted by dalter on 4/18/201
a_b, I don't think it's really legitimate to say, "Well, once in 1994 a team came back from a 31-pt deficit with 16 mins to go, so ..." If we've gotta go back 16 years to legitimize a result, to me that's a problem. The good news is that we don't because we see games with disaparate halves (like the Clemson-Illinois example from this season) all the time.

colonels, please try to read (and re-read and re-read) dahs' point about sample size. Then read it 10 more times.

If you have even the smallest, most basic inkling of how stats and probability work, you'll understand that when you're dealing with such a small sample size (i.e. one half), it's quite common to see discrepancies.

He demanded "A game' And this didn't meet the criterion that I had asked of you....great job...

That just happened to be the first one that came up on a search. The easiest search I could think of to find a game like that was 'largest comeback'

Its not worth doing a more in depth search to argue with Colonels. It really isn't. Always trying to weasel out of debates with me because you simply can't hack it. You couldn't/didn't even do what I asked you, but because its good enough for you, its good enough? Please.

Especially if you add in that the SIm doesn't take its foot off the gas in teh way a real team would in that situation. About midway through the second half, in real life . . . The comparison between the games and game situations isn't really close at all, but yet you somehow try to paint that they are.

Quote: Originally Posted By doomey on 4/19/2010You keep saying you want the "right kind" of randomness, what does that mean to you? Ideally, true randomness ala random.org You already said you think that if a team beats another once that they should not lose to them again, so you already lost credibility points. No I didn't ye of lacking comprehension, what I said/suggested was that, if you win game 1 by 38 against a sim that doesn't make adjustments, why would you tweak your team at all, you blew them out in the first game. Ok, so we're going on the road now to play the team, I think there's a fair expectation to think that you're not going to/shouldn't lose. If I thought a result like that happened with good randomness, I would have never said anything. That would have all the reality of a Picasso painting; everyone who was better always won and rematchs already predetermined. Bah. I'm not even suggesting anything close to this, thus you don't understand what I'm griping about or my problem with the engine on the whole. Yes bizarre results will happen...if they used true randomness, I would 100% back them up ALL THE TIME....if I thought the randomness was good yet not true, I would back the result, I just don't believe that and I don't believe in the engine. WIS could save a lot of face by eliminating the PBP...just saying. Understand that you don't understand my argument...you guys just want to fly off the wall every time colonels19 says something, and you don't read for fact, you read for emotion. All I've done is repeat myself time and again because you guys just don't effing get it.

Quote: Originally posted by colonels19 on 4/19/2010Let me refresh your memory on what I asked you to dig up....Show me a game that was ever tied at halftime, then a team won by 41...Let's see...did you do that? NOPE...were you able to find that?  NOPE.  But just because its close, it doesn't really matter what I asked for, right?An outcome like that IS MUCH MORE UNDERSTANDABLE IN REAL LIFE because the game wasn't tied like the HD game, one team was up by 31 (35 point swing) and they probably figured, we got this, started coasting and the team that was down started charging back...again, not exactly the same thing as being tied and then losing by 41....still a 6 point difference mind you.  Another apples to oranges comparison from you to attempt to justify a ****** sim result, and again, you're comparing the most random thing in life to a game with set parameters, further discrediting this example.If you're ok with a game being tied at halftime in HD and one team wins the game in regulation by 41...I literally think you're insane.