I am.  I'm just saying that your premise is off.   The number of 0 power players is not 3%.   That's the number of active players.   There are probably 5 times that who have been created who have gone undrafted/unsigned.    Suddenly your 3% is a fraction of 1%.

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/28/2010 12:05:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bigal888 on 9/28/2010 11:54:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/28/2010 11:44:00 AM (view original):
I'm only trying to explain the problem tec sees with 3% of HBD being populated with 0 power guys.   All the players who are on teams in Coop do not represent all the players who were created in Coop.

That is a true statement.  My question though is do zero power guys exist in real life (in the sense that zero power = zero HR)?  Has there ever been anyone who has never hit a HR?  The answer is no - everyone who has been given enough chances in real life eventually hit a HR.  

This is slightly different though than what I brought up earlier - are 99 speed/baserunning 0 power guys hitting inside-the-park HR?  If they aren't, potentially valuable ML players are not performing like they should be.  CS says that it is possible and I say it isn't.  

I thought we agreed that 0 power guys just don't hit the ball with enough authority to get it to the wall.  And, if the ball doesn't make it to the wall, you cannot get an ITPHR.

Short of some people with disabilities, is there anyone that cannot hit a ball 300 ft rolling on the ground every now and then?
I'm pretty sure that my dogs, if given opposable thumbs, would luck out every now and then.
Seriously.

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/28/2010 12:12:00 PM (view original):
I am.  I'm just saying that your premise is off.   The number of 0 power players is not 3%.   That's the number of active players.   There are probably 5 times that who have been created who have gone undrafted/unsigned.    Suddenly your 3% is a fraction of 1%.

I'll disagree with your premise of "There are probably 5 times that who have been created who have gone undrafted/unsigned." 

A little over 800 players get drafted every season.  With comp picks, let's say it's around 825.  Let's say 600 draftees get signed (that's a pessimistic guess).  Your premise implies that in a given draft, there are around 3600 players generated and made available for the draft (that seems REALLY high).  Of the 3000 that don't get drafted/signed, they all have 0 power.

I'll give you that some of the undrafted/unsigned have 0 power.  But certainly not 3000 every season.  I'll say a fraction.  So maybe my 3% comes down to 2%.  Which still seems kind of high.  One out of 50 players who are good enough to be signed to play professional baseball are physically unable to hit a home run, either over the fence or ITP?  Does that feel realistic?

First, the gaps in the OF are 370 or more not 300.   Second, the ball has to get between two people who really like to stop it before it gets there. Third, hitting a baseball isn't so easy a caveman can do it.   So let's do away with that.

Now, if you want to ask do I think anyone making a living as a baseball player is incapable of hitting a baseball 370 feet, including roll, I'll probably say "No".   But then you have to factor in the people trying to make sure he doesn't and his ability to jog his *** around the bases in 17 seconds before they are capable of stopping him.   Now my answer is "Yes, there are professional baseball players who cannot get a triple or inside the park homer."

Posted by tecwrg on 9/28/2010 12:25:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/28/2010 12:12:00 PM (view original):
I am.  I'm just saying that your premise is off.   The number of 0 power players is not 3%.   That's the number of active players.   There are probably 5 times that who have been created who have gone undrafted/unsigned.    Suddenly your 3% is a fraction of 1%.

I'll disagree with your premise of "There are probably 5 times that who have been created who have gone undrafted/unsigned." 

A little over 800 players get drafted every season.  With comp picks, let's say it's around 825.  Let's say 600 draftees get signed (that's a pessimistic guess).  Your premise implies that in a given draft, there are around 3600 players generated and made available for the draft (that seems REALLY high).  Of the 3000 that don't get drafted/signed, they all have 0 power.

I'll give you that some of the undrafted/unsigned have 0 power.  But certainly not 3000 every season.  I'll say a fraction.  So maybe my 3% comes down to 2%.  Which still seems kind of high.  One out of 50 players who are good enough to be signed to play professional baseball are physically unable to hit a home run, either over the fence or ITP?  Does that feel realistic?

How long is a player's career? 3-5 seasons at a minimum.  Multiply.   Now do the math again.

Hehe.  Somebody just said "Oh, I didn't think of that" without saying a word.

Obviously tec. Because I still think you're on crack

I think he's been sniffing too many diesel fumes this morning.  Because I think he's implying that there's over 600 zero power players generated for each season's draft.

"Hey Mr Scout. I know I can't hit the ball out of the infield on my best day, but I'm really fast and I have a good eye"
"Oh, there's quite a few of you we like to look at. We'll put you on the list"

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/28/2010 12:29:00 PM (view original):
First, the gaps in the OF are 370 or more not 300.   Second, the ball has to get between two people who really like to stop it before it gets there. Third, hitting a baseball isn't so easy a caveman can do it.   So let's do away with that.

Now, if you want to ask do I think anyone making a living as a baseball player is incapable of hitting a baseball 370 feet, including roll, I'll probably say "No".   But then you have to factor in the people trying to make sure he doesn't and his ability to jog his *** around the bases in 17 seconds before they are capable of stopping him.   Now my answer is "Yes, there are professional baseball players who cannot get a triple or inside the park homer."

I agree that there are some players who cannot regularly hit a triple or a HR for various reasons - but check out every player ever created and given enough AB every one is able to get every type of hit (single/double/triple/HR) except zero power guys - they are apparently incapable of hitting a HR regardless of every other rating and how many AB's they are given.  Even guys with a power rating of 2 hit about 1 homerun every 200 AB.  

My two points are as follows:
1) The sim treats inside the park homeruns incorrectly.  They should be determined independent of regular HR, not as just another type of regular HR.
2) The idea that zero power guys have zero chance of hitting a HR is incorrect.   Find one ML player when given 5000+ AB's that didn't hit a HR.

There aren't any.  From my post this morning:

The most career AB's by any MLB player since 1900 without a HR is 1,931 by Tom Oliver (1930-1933).

So, tec, you're saying that your math isn't faulty despite the fact that you didn't factor in that undrafted/unsigned players are created every season while many currently active players have a minimum of 3 seasons(and I suspect more like 8-10 for most)?

Maybe we shouldn't be giving 0 power players 5000 HBD AB.   Perhaps Tom Oliver's team said "Dude, we gave you 1931 AB and you haven't hit a homer.  Sorry, you need to go get job!"

Perhaps Tom Olver's team never had those players on their draft list. And, if they did, someone said "dude, that player hits like he's wacking wet cement. Forget it". Rather than some formula picking these turds up for them.

I have a lack of 0 power players on my teams.