might only get as high as the mid 80s.

Either way. He's a good sign. Has player A signed yet?

He should be a stud. He will not reach 92 ovr.

Posted by finnski on 11/30/2018 2:39:00 PM (view original):
might only get as high as the mid 80s.

What makes you think so?

Posted by brianp87 on 11/30/2018 2:58:00 PM (view original):
He should be a stud. He will not reach 92 ovr.

Why don’t you think he will?

Almost no one ever reaches projections. For one thing, players are always projected to make huge gains in Durability and Health. Durability increases a bit, Health almost not at all.
The only thing I'd care about, and yes I was in on this from the start, his current hitting ratings make a projection of 95-95-70-95-70 look good to me.

Posted by damag on 11/30/2018 3:22:00 PM (view original):
Almost no one ever reaches projections. For one thing, players are always projected to make huge gains in Durability and Health. Durability increases a bit, Health almost not at all.
The only thing I'd care about, and yes I was in on this from the start, his current hitting ratings make a projection of 95-95-70-95-70 look good to me.

Alright, cool makes sense. Yeah, his projected overall may be very high because his durability projects to jump 24.

Edit - and yes, you were on from the start. Thank you!

Posted by strikeout26 on 11/30/2018 2:44:00 PM (view original):
Either way. He's a good sign. Has player A signed yet?

Player A hasn’t signed.

Posted by brianp87 on 11/30/2018 12:30:00 PM (view original):
He is 20 already so keep that in mind when looking at projections.

Age only matters for IFA. For drafted guys, pro years is what matters. He should get to 85-88 OVR, maybe more if you have high medical and are willing to sit him with a stiff back or whatever

PJ, how does the 60-day DL affect the development of skill ratings for players with less than 4 pro years? (Assuming that their injury recovery only increases physical traits.)

Posted by pjfoster13 on 11/30/2018 10:38:00 PM (view original):

Posted by brianp87 on 11/30/2018 12:30:00 PM (view original):
He is 20 already so keep that in mind when looking at projections.

Age only matters for IFA. For drafted guys, pro years is what matters. He should get to 85-88 OVR, maybe more if you have high medical and are willing to sit him with a stiff back or whatever

This is not exactly true. Age matters way more for IFA than for draft-- but older draftees have about a couple of points per year less development on average.

Agree with the consensus that 95-95-70-95-70 is about where he'll end up, maybe even a little better. That would make him as good a bat as I've seen, something like .320/.390/.630 over his career and contributing on the bases. With a little luck his best season could easily be something insane like .360/.440/.700.

Oh, just for grins-- with temper = 28 he'll get a few extra HBP, so bump the OBP 10 points in each of the above projections.

Player Profile: Corban Buchter - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

Here’s Player A. My advanced scouts favor Morlan by a decent amount. Butcher’s bat isn’t as good as seemed from draft scouts. Thoughts on him?

As dedelman says, older draftees have a little less headroom to grow. Depending on your taste, however, you can see them as a little more predictable. Buchter is a pretty good 18 yr old, so I feel like I can't reliably predict where he'll end up.

But speaking in generalities... my opinion is that all scouting is fuzzy, even 20 million. Projections overshoot, I'd say, at least 80% of the time. In my mind the question is always "how much?" Anytime a 20 million projection says a rating is going to improve 30 points, I think it's too high. Experience says that's rare. So I ask what if it's only 20? Give a player five seasons in the minors, say coaching is a factor, playing time, possible long term injury. You do your best to manage all those things, but what if those ratings only end up increasing by 20?

Buchter's a good all round player, maybe a great one, but what if there's nothing special about him? He's not going to be a great glove at SS. Is he going to be a great hitter at SS to make up for the glove? Or is he going to be a 3B who has up and down seasons? Either of those outcomes are in play for him.

Also, his Durability is pretty low. For an 18 yo that's not unusual, it's probably the one type of player I believe Durability increases by a good amount for. But he's still only going to end up around 70 durability which is alright for a 1B but not so much for a guy you're going to count on at a defensive position.

Ok, thanks so much for the help!