Pick number vs wins total has a correlation of +0.33. This means the person picking first are expected to finish with 87.2 wins, while the person picking 24th is expected to finish with 74.8 wins.

Rank	Team Name	League	Owner	DraftPick	Record	Exp Win%	Home
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------	---------------	----------	---------	----------	---------
1	Phillies 17-29-58-80-92-07	7	pedrocerrano	6	59-33	0.686	0.630
2	Tigers 18-24-44-73-84-07	3	footballmm11	13	59-33	0.643	0.689
3	Tigers 09-30-45-67-87-05	3	schwarze	6	59-33	0.639	0.652
4	Giants 05-36-50-78-87-04	1	schwarze	4	57-35	0.602	0.565
5	Twins 15-33-53-64-92-13	7	footballmm11	14	57-35	0.596	0.600
6	Naps/Indians 07-25-50-74-98-17	5	redcped	8	57-35	0.582	0.638
7	Giants 03-24-61-70-98-21	1	footballmm11	11	57-35	0.562	0.596
8	Browns/Orioles 06-23-46-68-56-04	7	kstober	2	56-36	0.592	0.596
9	2000 1957 1979 2010 1932 1904 Americans	6	barracuda3	11	56-36	0.565	0.600
10	Braves 17-31-62-82-00-03	6	footballmm11	19	56-36	0.562	0.578
11	Dodgers 16-40-47-77-88-17	2	richiebrown6	11	56-36	0.552	0.644
12	1941 2016 1956 1980 1998 1921 Dodgers	2	barracuda3	4	55-37	0.577	0.587
13	1919 2002 1968 1938 1955 2017 Giants	1	barracuda3	16	55-37	0.550	0.622
14	Pirates 6x	5	spinaldog	14	55-37	0.547	0.609
15	Yankees 11-34-59-80-99-22	1	footballmm11	20	54-38	0.635	0.543
16	White Sox 15-35-61-63-96-21	4	footballmm11	21	54-38	0.589	0.587
17	Naps/Indians 11-24-59-79-00-20	5	pedrocerrano	11	54-38	0.571	0.600
18	White Sox 06-24-59-74-91-20	4	pedrocerrano	4	54-38	0.565	0.596
19	1991 BRAVES	6	ybjsports	8	54-38	0.565	0.532
20	Cubs 03-40-52-77-97-15	4	beallendall	15	54-38	0.522	0.652
21	Athletics 13-26-55-66-90-20	2	emanes10	21	53-39	0.597	0.500
22	Senators133043730208	7	steveizzy	17	53-39	0.586	0.622
23	08/26/59/65/01/17 Cubs	4	toysboys	12	53-39	0.579	0.622
24	Pittsburgh Pirates 04-29-61-68-99-07	5	kstober	22	53-39	0.575	0.457
25	21/31/48/76/85/11's Putrid Pinstripers	1	ronthegenius	10	53-39	0.544	0.565
26	Dodgers 19-23-51-68-00-15	2	footballmm11	2	53-39	0.532	0.596
27	Detroit Tigers 22-38-55-81-86-13	3	kstober	10	53-39	0.530	0.739
28	22/41/61/75/83/07 Orioles	7	toysboys	13	53-39	0.530	0.587
29	Red Sox 08-41-58-64-81-18	6	schwarze	6	52-40	0.600	0.600
30	1916 1973 2002 2011 1950 1926 Braves	6	barracuda3	3	52-40	0.590	0.587
31	Athletics 11-32-46-80-00-18	2	footballmm11	19	52-40	0.556	0.500
32	Senators/Twins 18-32-46-75-88-04	7	redcped	8	51-41	0.583	0.543
33	Twins 19-31-45-70-86-06	7	schwarze	4	51-41	0.566	0.596
34	Giants 21-33-47-63-95-09	1	schwarze	19	51-41	0.557	0.543
35	18/41/52/73/85/08 Cardinals	3	toysboys	3	51-41	0.555	0.652
36	Dodgers/Robins 11-24-50-81-83-22	2	redcped	9	51-41	0.550	0.622
37	18/35/58/82/00/13 Pirates	5	toysboys	13	51-41	0.539	0.556
38	Red Sox 12-34-53-78-98-11	6	footballmm11	5	51-41	0.527	0.587
39	Giants 1907-32-49-65-2000-2016	1	glowguy	21	51-41	0.523	0.565
40	Pinky, Blue & the A's	2	nocomm999	5	51-41	0.514	0.489
41	13/42/55/65/90/09 Dodgers	2	toysboys	22	50-42	0.593	0.609
42	Lots Of Vintage Red Sox	6	ejstockman	1	50-42	0.582	0.489
43	Pirates 03-28-44--70-87-12	5	schwarze	4	50-42	0.572	0.596
44	Cardinals 20-30-44-67-00-19	3	redcped	8	50-42	0.548	0.556
45	10/40/51/81/92/17 White Sox	4	toysboys	17	50-42	0.538	0.522
46	Cardinals 04-37-54-79-02-14	3	pedrocerrano	1	50-42	0.536	0.574
47	.yankees got some left	1	3dayrotation	13	50-42	0.526	0.533
48	Chicago Cubs 07-35-58-72-00-22	4	kstober	3	50-42	0.523	0.565
49	Luke, I am your Foxer	4	taxman2008	7	50-42	0.516	0.511
50	Browns/Orioles 18-28-45-64-91-08	7	pedrocerrano	24	50-42	0.487	0.565
51	PIT 20/36/50/65/84/15	5	chisock	24	50-42	0.485	0.587
52	Boston Red Sox 15-40-60-69-89-06	6	kstober	18	50-42	0.481	0.543
53	Cubs 04-39-43-67-85-21	4	footballmm11	13	50-42	0.474	0.565
54	Red Sox 17-23-49-75-86-13	6	pedrocerrano	10	49-43	0.591	0.457
55	1957 WHITE SOX	4	ybjsports	1	49-43	0.575	0.630
56	WhiteSoxLOL172646729010	4	steveizzy	14	49-43	0.564	0.500
57	A's 08-29-58-69-89-17	2	pedrocerrano	13	49-43	0.559	0.644
58	White Sox 19-27-58-64-01-14	4	schwarze	11	49-43	0.518	0.511
59	1909 1935 1951 1973 2005 1996 Athletics	2	barracuda3	1	49-43	0.503	0.543
60	Cubs 06-23-44-66-90-14	4	schwarze	5	49-43	0.484	0.553
61	1930 1970 1918 1991 1948 2003 Cubs	4	barracuda3	9	49-43	0.475	0.511
62	Reds 20-24-44-76-91-14	7	schwarze	10	48-44	0.560	0.533
63	Yankees 04-30-56-69-94-20	1	pedrocerrano	1	48-44	0.539	0.522
64	1943 1966 2001 1917 1928 2012 Cardinals	3	barracuda3	2	48-44	0.525	0.630
65	Nap's Naps	5	nocomm999	18	48-44	0.511	0.587
66	17/33/53/65/97/03 Indians	5	toysboys	2	48-44	0.496	0.435
67	1910 1961 1926 2009 1996 1973 Yankees	1	barracuda3	6	48-44	0.481	0.630
68	A's 22/27/44/72/01/14	2	chisock	14	48-44	0.455	0.478
69	Tigers 1910-35-56-65-85-2013	3	glowguy	20	48-44	0.444	0.630
70	Cardinals 22-42-57-72-87-06	3	schwarze	12	47-45	0.591	0.565
71	1908 Pirates	5	84champs	5	47-45	0.541	0.468
72	Stan Musial's Harmonica 31.0	3	gworear	9	47-45	0.532	0.522
73	21/36/50/78/88/09’s Rancid RedBirds	3	ronthegenius	14	47-45	0.528	0.500
74	Indians 18-38-43-72-93-22	5	footballmm11	17	47-45	0.521	0.543
75	08/32/46/64/83/21's Putrescent Phillies	7	ronthegenius	16	47-45	0.516	0.565
76	Tigers 12-37-61-69-97-10	3	pedrocerrano	17	47-45	0.515	0.543
77	Dodgers 14-39-62-72-95-14	2	beallendall	15	47-45	0.508	0.630
78	Giants 09, 31, 53, 71, 89, 03	1	d_rock97	14	47-45	0.508	0.413
79	Indians 12-40-56-81-01-18	5	beallendall	16	47-45	0.500	0.478
80	Reds Moneyline	7	bill_james47	18	47-45	0.478	0.565
81	Cubs 09-27-56-64-89-19	4	redcped	6	46-46	0.566	0.478
82	St. Louis Cardinals 15-25-62-81-97-03	3	kstober	23	46-46	0.565	0.457
83	Cleveland Indians 09-34-61-68-99-11	5	kstober	10	46-46	0.535	0.391
84	BravesLOL143656810120	6	steveizzy	7	46-46	0.532	0.489
85	Twins 1912-1935-1958-1969-1991-2005	7	mllama54	20	46-46	0.524	0.543
86	03/42/62/72/87/16 Red Sox	6	toysboys	9	46-46	0.523	0.391
87	17/34/46/64/01/14 Giants	1	toysboys	18	46-46	0.517	0.500
88	2011 Tigers	3	84champs	4	46-46	0.510	0.553
89	1916 2019 1956 1939 1965 1993 White Sox	4	barracuda3	2	46-46	0.509	0.457
90	Bigwig's Red Sox 10/38/46/77/90/19	6	njbigwig	15	46-46	0.489	0.522
91	.how bad can 37 foxx be behind the plate	6	3dayrotation	4	46-46	0.476	0.435
92	15/37/55/77/95/08 Phillies	7	toysboys	3	46-46	0.456	0.511
93	Yankees 1916-28-55-77-97-2008	1	glowguy	2	46-46	0.444	0.457
94	Yankees 19-1937-45-78-02-17	1	schwarze	8	45-47	0.561	0.556
95	Juice Dodgers	2	calhoop	12	45-47	0.550	0.522
96	1909 1972 1934 1991 1945 2016 Pirates	5	barracuda3	1	45-47	0.547	0.522
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------	---------------	----------	---------	----------	---------
97	Athletics 14-30-47-81-94-03	2	schwarze	7	45-47	0.521	0.489
98	Red Sox 07-24-50-80-02-08	6	emanes10	2	45-47	0.511	0.574
99	Braves 18-28-48-74-96-10	6	schwarze	16	45-47	0.507	0.511
100	Reds 1915,32.62,75,90,2013	7	glowguy	1	45-47	0.496	0.489
101	1908 1923 1996 2014 1980 1958 IndianNaps	5	barracuda3	15	45-47	0.491	0.543
102	1923 2020 1987 1909 1974 1954 Reds	7	barracuda3	7	45-47	0.488	0.500
103	2005 PHILLIES	7	ybjsports	5	45-47	0.483	0.478
104	J4 Braves Power Trip	6	joerat1	23	45-47	0.442	0.457
105	Dodgers 20-30-49-70-85-11	2	schwarze	23	44-48	0.521	0.413
106	Dodgers 06, 25, 43, 63, 89, 13	2	d_rock97	16	44-48	0.474	0.435
107	Cards: 1908/1926/1947/1982/1992/2004	3	thejuice6	18	44-48	0.473	0.457
108	Braves 11-23-58-69-94-09	6	beallendall	14	44-48	0.463	0.457
109	1968 1934 1911 1962 1988 2004 Tigers	3	barracuda3	11	44-48	0.451	0.511
110	Pee Wee's Juice Adventure	2	bill_james47	3	44-48	0.451	0.457
111	Pirates 12, 32, 62, 77, 90, 21	5	d_rock97	20	43-49	0.538	0.435
112	1906 NAPS	5	ybjsports	6	43-49	0.521	0.511
113	Cincinnati Reds 05-42-58-72-95-15	7	kstober	21	43-49	0.512	0.500
114	1996 GIANTS	1	ybjsports	7	43-49	0.508	0.391
115	Braves 12-30-47-64-93-22	6	redcped	24	43-49	0.505	0.413
116	A's 05/25/62/68/88/09	2	winterhawk	18	43-49	0.490	0.500
117	Detroit No Roar Tigers	3	dougsdawgs13	19	43-49	0.479	0.543
118	Juice Red Sox	6	calhoop	17	43-49	0.476	0.413
119	Reds 6x	7	spinaldog	11	43-49	0.470	0.500
120	Christy, Meet Barry	1	nocomm999	15	43-49	0.465	0.457
121	The Secret Language of Birds	3	harrelson	15	43-49	0.464	0.500
122	SENS/TWINS 1914/25/61/77/2001/09	7	oldtimer59	12	43-49	0.448	0.457
123	Bigwig's Cardinals 19/34/48/70/89/10	3	njbigwig	5	43-49	0.442	0.447
124	Urband Yankees	1	urband	3	43-49	0.421	0.383
125	New York Yankees 12-32-43-68-91-07	1	kstober	17	42-50	0.527	0.500
126	J4 A’s	2	joerat1	20	42-50	0.491	0.348
127	Giants 08-29-58-79-93-11	1	emanes10	9	42-50	0.486	0.489
128	J4 Detroiters	3	joerat1	21	42-50	0.474	0.522
129	06/27/47/64/86/05 Yankees	1	toysboys	5	42-50	0.474	0.447
130	Hammerin' Braves	6	nordawg	12	42-50	0.470	0.522
131	15/39/46/77/90/17 Tigers	3	toysboys	16	42-50	0.466	0.422
132	Cubs 19-34-57-63-98-18	4	darthdurron	20	42-50	0.463	0.435
133	Bigwig's White Sox 13/23/43/67/94/03	4	njbigwig	8	42-50	0.434	0.511
134	Indigenous Inhabitants by the Lake	5	fatboydad54	19	42-50	0.430	0.500
135	Bronx Redbirds	3	parking31	7	42-50	0.424	0.533
136	Pirates 19-38-60-75-01-19	5	darthdurron	12	42-50	0.411	0.444
137	Indians 03-30-44-69-88-16	5	schwarze	9	41-51	0.466	0.444
138	Dodgers 1908-28-53-69-2002-2018	2	glowguy	8	41-51	0.451	0.489
139	112759 Pirates 739806	5	pmars2001	23	41-51	0.447	0.413
140	Cubs 10-37-45-75-84-05	4	pedrocerrano	23	40-52	0.487	0.435
141	GIANTS 11/27/54/67/87/12	1	oldtimer59	12	40-52	0.473	0.511
142	CHW 20/37/55/66/83/16	4	chisock	18	40-52	0.460	0.435
143	Phillies 16-30-54-67-93-11	7	darthdurron	9	40-52	0.452	0.378
144	Braves 1908-32-55-66-99-2021	6	glowguy	20	40-52	0.412	0.435
145	Cubs 20, 38, 50, 79, 92, 20	4	d_rock97	22	39-53	0.532	0.413
146	.bear disaster	4	3dayrotation	10	39-53	0.456	0.378
147	Cubs 1905-28-60-71-99-2016	4	glowguy	16	39-53	0.452	0.304
148	Athletics 04-33-49-71-99-12	2	kstober	17	38-54	0.435	0.333
149	Pirates: 1906/1931/1943/1963/1985/2014	5	thejuice6	21	38-54	0.384	0.413
150	Dodgers 12-32-57-66-97-21	2	darthdurron	10	38-54	0.375	0.478
151	Twins 10, 28, 51, 63, 96, 20	7	d_rock97	19	37-55	0.443	0.413
152	Cleveland 1915-31-52-66-95-2007	5	glowguy	3	37-55	0.438	0.370
153	Chicago White Sox 05-36-53-68-98-06	4	kstober	19	37-55	0.417	0.457
154	BRO'S 20/30/58/69/95/14	7	chisock	15	35-57	0.428	0.326
155	Bloody Socks	6	jtpsops	22	35-57	0.407	0.413
156	A's: 1907/1924/1945/1975/1992/2019	2	thejuice6	24	35-57	0.395	0.370
157	Atlanta, Boston, Milwaukee Braves	6	jrig21	21	35-57	0.393	0.435
158	NYSF 16/37/48/66/97/15	1	chisock	22	35-57	0.372	0.391
159	Yankees: 1914/1936/1957/1975/1995/2014	1	thejuice6	24	35-57	0.365	0.391
160	B's & O/s: 1921/1931/1962/1972/1997/2005	7	thejuice6	22	35-57	0.280	0.370
161	The Long John Silver Society	5	harrelson	7	34-58	0.366	0.435
162	White Sox: 1904/1925/1949/1980/2000/2005	4	thejuice6	24	34-58	0.320	0.348
163	Braves: 1906/1937/1946/1967/1997/2007	6	thejuice6	13	33-59	0.326	0.391
164	TigersLOL172943829616	3	steveizzy	22	32-60	0.334	0.413
165	16/31/48/74/02/21 A's	2	toysboys	6	31-61	0.367	0.304
166	Yankees 05-42-46-63-00-06	1	darthdurron	23	31-61	0.357	0.326
167	Tiger Kings	3	nordawg	24	31-61	0.335	0.413
168	Cheap buffet from the Reds	7	big_dowg	23	29-63	0.357	0.283

Note that there are two teams below the line (i.e., 96th place) that are winning their division, meaning that those teams would advance, so 95th and 96th would miss the cut, if the season ended today.

Things were somewhat promising through 40 games, but the bottom has completely fallen out.

STANDINGS THRU 118 GAMES
I've modified this so all playoff teams are now listed "above the cutoff line".

Rank	Team Name	Owner	DraftPick	Record	Exp Win%	Playoff
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------------	----------	---------	----------	---------
1	Giants 03-24-61-70-98-21	footballmm11	11	76-42	0.583	1
2	Phillies 17-29-58-80-92-07	pedrocerrano	6	75-43	0.676	1
3	Giants 05-36-50-78-87-04	schwarze	4	75-43	0.618	1
4	Tigers 09-30-45-67-87-05	schwarze	6	74-44	0.636	1
5	Naps/Indians 07-25-50-74-98-17	redcped	8	74-44	0.599	1
6	Twins 15-33-53-64-92-13	footballmm11	14	73-45	0.628	1
7	Tigers 18-24-44-73-84-07	footballmm11	13	73-45	0.617	1
8	2000 1957 1979 2010 1932 1904 Americans	barracuda3	11	73-45	0.551	1
9	1991 BRAVES	ybjsports	8	72-46	0.591	1
10	Athletics 13-26-55-66-90-20	emanes10	21	71-47	0.609	1
11	Dodgers/Robins 11-24-50-81-83-22	redcped	9	71-47	0.589	1
12	Braves 17-31-62-82-00-03	footballmm11	19	71-47	0.586	1
13	White Sox 06-24-59-74-91-20	pedrocerrano	4	71-47	0.559	1
14	Senators133043730208	steveizzy	17	70-48	0.604	1
15	Yankees 11-34-59-80-99-22	footballmm11	20	70-48	0.593	1
16	Browns/Orioles 06-23-46-68-56-04	kstober	2	70-48	0.573	1
17	1919 2002 1968 1938 1955 2017 Giants	barracuda3	16	70-48	0.558	1
18	Dodgers 16-40-47-77-88-17	richiebrown6	11	70-48	0.553	1
19	Athletics 11-32-46-80-00-18	footballmm11	19	69-49	0.560	1
20	1916 1973 2002 2011 1950 1926 Braves	barracuda3	3	68-50	0.596	1
21	Pittsburgh Pirates 04-29-61-68-99-07	kstober	22	68-50	0.579	1
22	Naps/Indians 11-24-59-79-00-20	pedrocerrano	11	68-50	0.576	1
23	White Sox 15-35-61-63-96-21	footballmm11	21	68-50	0.556	1
24	21/31/48/76/85/11's Putrid Pinstripers	ronthegenius	10	68-50	0.545	1
25	Pirates 6x	spinaldog	14	68-50	0.527	1
26	Cubs 03-40-52-77-97-15	beallendall	15	68-50	0.510	1
27	08/26/59/65/01/17 Cubs	toysboys	12	67-51	0.587	1
28	1941 2016 1956 1980 1998 1921 Dodgers	barracuda3	4	67-51	0.561	1
29	Cardinals 04-37-54-79-02-14	pedrocerrano	1	67-51	0.555	1
30	Detroit Tigers 22-38-55-81-86-13	kstober	10	67-51	0.535	1
31	Cardinals 20-30-44-67-00-19	redcped	8	66-52	0.590	1
32	Red Sox 17-23-49-75-86-13	pedrocerrano	10	66-52	0.587	1
33	Pirates 03-28-44--70-87-12	schwarze	4	66-52	0.580	1
34	18/41/52/73/85/08 Cardinals	toysboys	3	66-52	0.568	1
35	10/40/51/81/92/17 White Sox	toysboys	17	66-52	0.567	1
36	Dodgers 19-23-51-68-00-15	footballmm11	2	66-52	0.518	0
37	1957 WHITE SOX	ybjsports	1	65-53	0.590	1
38	Senators/Twins 18-32-46-75-88-04	redcped	8	65-53	0.579	0
39	Yankees 04-30-56-69-94-20	pedrocerrano	1	65-53	0.568	1
40	Giants 21-33-47-63-95-09	schwarze	19	65-53	0.550	1
41	Chicago Cubs 07-35-58-72-00-22	kstober	3	65-53	0.534	1
42	17/33/53/65/97/03 Indians	toysboys	2	65-53	0.532	1
43	Lots Of Vintage Red Sox	ejstockman	1	64-54	0.573	1
44	Pinky, Blue & the A's	nocomm999	5	64-54	0.521	1
45	22/41/61/75/83/07 Orioles	toysboys	13	64-54	0.499	0
46	Cubs 06-23-44-66-90-14	schwarze	5	64-54	0.496	0
47	A's 08-29-58-69-89-17	pedrocerrano	13	63-55	0.572	1
48	Twins 1912-1935-1958-1969-1991-2005	mllama54	20	63-55	0.545	1
49	Red Sox 12-34-53-78-98-11	footballmm11	5	63-55	0.532	0
50	Luke, I am your Foxer	taxman2008	7	63-55	0.525	0
51	13/42/55/65/90/09 Dodgers	toysboys	22	62-56	0.574	1
52	1908 Pirates	84champs	5	62-56	0.572	0.333333
53	1943 1966 2001 1917 1928 2012 Cardinals	barracuda3	2	62-56	0.536	0
54	Giants 1907-32-49-65-2000-2016	glowguy	21	62-56	0.517	0
55	1909 1935 1951 1973 2005 1996 Athletics	barracuda3	1	62-56	0.512	0
56	18/35/58/82/00/13 Pirates	toysboys	13	62-56	0.505	0.333333
57	PIT 20/36/50/65/84/15	chisock	24	62-56	0.477	0.333333
58	Yankees 19-1937-45-78-02-17	schwarze	8	61-57	0.580	0.333333
59	Cubs 09-27-56-64-89-19	redcped	6	61-57	0.567	0
60	1909 1972 1934 1991 1945 2016 Pirates	barracuda3	1	61-57	0.555	0
61	15/39/46/77/90/17 Tigers	toysboys	16	61-57	0.545	0
62	2011 Tigers	84champs	4	61-57	0.532	0
63	White Sox 19-27-58-64-01-14	schwarze	11	61-57	0.522	0
64	03/42/62/72/87/16 Red Sox	toysboys	9	61-57	0.517	0
65	1916 2019 1956 1939 1965 1993 White Sox	barracuda3	2	61-57	0.513	0
66	.yankees got some left	3dayrotation	13	61-57	0.512	0.333333
67	2005 PHILLIES	ybjsports	5	61-57	0.506	1
68	Yankees 1916-28-55-77-97-2008	glowguy	2	61-57	0.502	0.333333
69	Reds Moneyline	bill_james47	18	61-57	0.500	1
70	1923 2020 1987 1909 1974 1954 Reds	barracuda3	7	61-57	0.495	1
71	Browns/Orioles 18-28-45-64-91-08	pedrocerrano	24	61-57	0.490	0
72	Cardinals 22-42-57-72-87-06	schwarze	12	60-58	0.577	0
73	Red Sox 08-41-58-64-81-18	schwarze	6	60-58	0.568	0
74	Dodgers 20-30-49-70-85-11	schwarze	23	60-58	0.547	0
75	21/36/50/78/88/09’s Rancid RedBirds	ronthegenius	14	60-58	0.528	1
76	.how bad can 37 foxx be behind the plate	3dayrotation	4	60-58	0.520	0
77	Twins 19-31-45-70-86-06	schwarze	4	60-58	0.514	0
78	Nap's Naps	nocomm999	18	60-58	0.492	1
79	Braves 11-23-58-69-94-09	beallendall	14	60-58	0.487	0
80	Dodgers 14-39-62-72-95-14	beallendall	15	60-58	0.474	0
81	Boston Red Sox 15-40-60-69-89-06	kstober	18	60-58	0.467	1
82	Reds 20-24-44-76-91-14	schwarze	10	59-59	0.541	0
83	Juice Red Sox	calhoop	17	59-59	0.522	0
84	Braves 18-28-48-74-96-10	schwarze	16	59-59	0.512	0
85	Indians 12-40-56-81-01-18	beallendall	16	59-59	0.510	0
86	A's 05/25/62/68/88/09	winterhawk	18	59-59	0.507	0
87	Stan Musial's Harmonica 31.0	gworear	9	59-59	0.502	0
88	1908 1923 1996 2014 1980 1958 IndianNaps	barracuda3	15	59-59	0.495	0
89	08/32/46/64/83/21's Putrescent Phillies	ronthegenius	16	59-59	0.490	0
90	Giants 09, 31, 53, 71, 89, 03	d_rock97	14	59-59	0.487	0
91	Cubs 04-39-43-67-85-21	footballmm11	13	59-59	0.483	0
92	Cubs 19-34-57-63-98-18	darthdurron	20	59-59	0.477	1
93	15/37/55/77/95/08 Phillies	toysboys	3	59-59	0.463	0
94	1930 1970 1918 1991 1948 2003 Cubs	barracuda3	9	59-59	0.458	0
96	Tigers 1910-35-56-65-85-2013	glowguy	20	59-59	0.429	1
116	J4 Braves Power Trip	joerat1	23	56-62	0.428	1
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------------	----------	---------	----------	---------
95	Bigwig's Red Sox 10/38/46/77/90/19	njbigwig	15	59-59	0.446	0
97	Juice Dodgers	calhoop	12	58-60	0.548	0
98	Pirates 12, 32, 62, 77, 90, 21	d_rock97	20	58-60	0.541	0
99	WhiteSoxLOL172646729010	steveizzy	14	58-60	0.526	0
100	Cleveland Indians 09-34-61-68-99-11	kstober	10	58-60	0.514	0
101	Reds 1915,32.62,75,90,2013	glowguy	1	58-60	0.508	0
102	17/34/46/64/01/14 Giants	toysboys	18	58-60	0.498	0
103	Indians 18-38-43-72-93-22	footballmm11	17	58-60	0.492	0
104	1910 1961 1926 2009 1996 1973 Yankees	barracuda3	6	58-60	0.461	0
105	Bronx Redbirds	parking31	7	58-60	0.448	0
106	St. Louis Cardinals 15-25-62-81-97-03	kstober	23	57-61	0.525	0
107	Athletics 14-30-47-81-94-03	schwarze	7	57-61	0.524	0
108	Tigers 12-37-61-69-97-10	pedrocerrano	17	57-61	0.508	0
109	Red Sox 07-24-50-80-02-08	emanes10	2	57-61	0.492	0
110	1968 1934 1911 1962 1988 2004 Tigers	barracuda3	11	57-61	0.414	0
111	Cubs 20, 38, 50, 79, 92, 20	d_rock97	22	56-62	0.541	0
112	Hammerin' Braves	nordawg	12	56-62	0.490	0
113	Reds 6x	spinaldog	11	56-62	0.476	0
114	Dodgers 1908-28-53-69-2002-2018	glowguy	8	56-62	0.464	0
115	Urband Yankees	urband	3	56-62	0.435	0
117	A's 22/27/44/72/01/14	chisock	14	56-62	0.422	0
118	BravesLOL143656810120	steveizzy	7	55-63	0.518	0
119	1996 GIANTS	ybjsports	7	55-63	0.517	0
120	1906 NAPS	ybjsports	6	55-63	0.504	0
121	Detroit No Roar Tigers	dougsdawgs13	19	55-63	0.503	0
122	Cincinnati Reds 05-42-58-72-95-15	kstober	21	55-63	0.497	0
123	06/27/47/64/86/05 Yankees	toysboys	5	55-63	0.490	0
124	GIANTS 11/27/54/67/87/12	oldtimer59	12	55-63	0.480	0
125	Pee Wee's Juice Adventure	bill_james47	3	55-63	0.436	0
126	Bigwig's Cardinals 19/34/48/70/89/10	njbigwig	5	55-63	0.435	0
127	SENS/TWINS 1914/25/61/77/2001/09	oldtimer59	12	55-63	0.431	0
128	Indians 03-30-44-69-88-16	schwarze	9	54-64	0.493	0
129	Giants 08-29-58-79-93-11	emanes10	9	53-65	0.485	0
130	Braves 12-30-47-64-93-22	redcped	24	53-65	0.471	0
131	Indigenous Inhabitants by the Lake	fatboydad54	19	53-65	0.427	0
132	Pirates 19-38-60-75-01-19	darthdurron	12	53-65	0.425	0
133	CHW 20/37/55/66/83/16	chisock	18	52-66	0.462	0
134	J4 A’s	joerat1	20	52-66	0.462	0
135	J4 Detroiters	joerat1	21	52-66	0.460	0
136	The Secret Language of Birds	harrelson	15	52-66	0.441	0
137	Cards: 1908/1926/1947/1982/1992/2004	thejuice6	18	52-66	0.440	0
138	Bigwig's White Sox 13/23/43/67/94/03	njbigwig	8	52-66	0.431	0
139	New York Yankees 12-32-43-68-91-07	kstober	17	51-67	0.528	0
140	Cubs 10-37-45-75-84-05	pedrocerrano	23	51-67	0.468	0
141	Athletics 04-33-49-71-99-12	kstober	17	51-67	0.464	0
142	112759 Pirates 739806	pmars2001	23	51-67	0.431	0
143	Christy, Meet Barry	nocomm999	15	51-67	0.430	0
144	Dodgers 06, 25, 43, 63, 89, 13	d_rock97	16	50-68	0.446	0
145	Phillies 16-30-54-67-93-11	darthdurron	9	50-68	0.444	0
146	.bear disaster	3dayrotation	10	49-69	0.459	0
147	BRO'S 20/30/58/69/95/14	chisock	15	49-69	0.457	0
148	Chicago White Sox 05-36-53-68-98-06	kstober	19	49-69	0.429	0
149	Dodgers 12-32-57-66-97-21	darthdurron	10	49-69	0.395	0
150	Pirates: 1906/1931/1943/1963/1985/2014	thejuice6	21	49-69	0.368	0
151	Twins 10, 28, 51, 63, 96, 20	d_rock97	19	48-70	0.438	0
152	Cubs 1905-28-60-71-99-2016	glowguy	16	48-70	0.436	0
153	Cleveland 1915-31-52-66-95-2007	glowguy	3	48-70	0.418	0
154	Atlanta, Boston, Milwaukee Braves	jrig21	21	48-70	0.398	0
155	Braves 1908-32-55-66-99-2021	glowguy	20	48-70	0.384	0
156	A's: 1907/1924/1945/1975/1992/2019	thejuice6	24	47-71	0.393	0
157	The Long John Silver Society	harrelson	7	45-73	0.395	0
158	Braves: 1906/1937/1946/1967/1997/2007	thejuice6	13	45-73	0.354	0
159	B's & O/s: 1921/1931/1962/1972/1997/2005	thejuice6	22	45-73	0.298	0
160	NYSF 16/37/48/66/97/15	chisock	22	44-74	0.375	0
161	Yankees: 1914/1936/1957/1975/1995/2014	thejuice6	24	44-74	0.328	0
162	White Sox: 1904/1925/1949/1980/2000/2005	thejuice6	24	44-74	0.325	0
163	Bloody Socks	jtpsops	22	43-75	0.404	0
164	Yankees 05-42-46-63-00-06	darthdurron	23	43-75	0.376	0
165	TigersLOL172943829616	steveizzy	22	43-75	0.359	0
166	Tiger Kings	nordawg	24	43-75	0.332	0
167	16/31/48/74/02/21 A's	toysboys	6	41-77	0.362	0
168	Cheap buffet from the Reds	big_dowg	23	39-79	0.368	0

DraftPick	Wins	Losses	Rd 5	Winning%	Group of 4
-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------
1	442	384	6	0.535	0.533
2	442	384	6	0.535
3	417	409	4	0.505
4	460	366	7	0.557
5	424	402	5	0.513	0.511
6	424	402	4	0.513
7	394	432	2	0.477
8	446	380	5	0.540
9	407	419	4	0.493	0.511
10	416	410	4	0.504
11	461	365	5	0.558
12	404	422	2	0.489
13	427	399	6	0.517	0.504
14	434	392	5	0.525
15	398	428	3	0.482
16	406	420	5	0.492
17	412	414	3	0.499	0.494
18	402	424	4	0.487
19	410	416	3	0.496
20	409	417	5	0.495
21	405	421	3	0.490	0.447
22	361	465	2	0.437
23	357	469	1	0.432
24	354	472	2	0.429
-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------
1 thru 12	5137	4775	54	0.518
13 thru 24	4775	5137	42	0.482
-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------
Total	9912	9912	96	0.500

League	Franchises		Avg Runs	Rank	Round 5
----------	---------------------------		----------	----------	----------
1	Giants/Yankees		4.95	4	12
2	Dodgers/Athletics		4.51	6	13
3	Cardinals/Tigers		5.46	1	13
4	Cubs/White Sox		4.46	7	15
5	Pirates/Indians		4.84	5	13
6	Braves/Red Sox		5.00	3	15
7	Reds/Phils/Twins/O's		5.00	2	15
----------	------------------		----------	----------	----------
Average			4.89		96
League	Franchises	Win%	Avg Runs	Rank	Round 5
----------	---------------------------	-----------	----------	----------	----------
1	Giants	0.511	4.63	12	6
1	Yankees	0.489	5.28	5	6
2	Dodgers	0.511	4.41	15	7
2	Athletics	0.489	4.60	13	6
3	Cardinals	0.504	5.59	1	7
3	Tigers	0.496	5.32	3	6
4	Cubs	0.499	4.68	11	8
4	White Sox	0.501	4.24	16	7
5	Pirates	0.498	4.96	7	7
5	Indians	0.502	4.73	10	6
6	Braves	0.488	4.60	14	6
6	Red Sox	0.512	5.39	2	9
7	Reds	0.471	5.03	6	3
7	Phillies	0.515	5.30	4	4
7	Twins	0.525	4.95	8	5
7	Orioles	0.490	4.75	9	3

The regression formula shows a correlation coefficient of +0.36.
.

Pick#	.	Expected Wins	.	Wins Per162
1		63.7		87.5
2		63.3		86.9
3		62.9		86.3
4		62.5		85.8
5		62.1		85.2
6		61.7		84.7
7		61.3		84.1
8		60.8		83.5
9		60.4		83.0
10		60.0		82.4
11		59.6		81.8
12		59.2		81.3
13		58.8		80.7
14		58.4		80.2
15		58.0		79.6
16		57.6		79.0
17		57.2		78.5
18		56.7		77.9
19		56.3		77.3
20		55.9		76.8
21		55.5		76.2
22		55.1		75.7
23		54.7		75.1
24		54.3		74.5

Using this regression formula, I can assign an "Expected Win" total for each team based on the draft position. This ignores everything else, such as 1-run luck and expected winning%. This can then measure how successful each owner is, relative to where they drafted.... I only listed those with a positive difference. This table is sorted by total wins difference. Obviously, the difference per team is important as well.

footbballmm11 is easily winning this round.
.

Owner	Teams	Wins	Losses	Winning%	Exp Wins	Difference	Diff/Tm
-----------------------	-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------	---------
footballmm11	11	746	552	0.575	642	104	9.4
pedrocerrano	10	644	536	0.546	596	48	4.8
schwarze	15	935	835	0.528	903	32	2.1
redcped	6	390	318	0.551	359	31	5.2
barracuda3	13	818	716	0.533	797	21	1.6
beallendall	4	247	225	0.523	232	15	3.8
kstober	11	651	647	0.502	639	12	1.1
ronthegenius	3	187	167	0.528	176	11	3.7
richiebrown6	1	70	48	0.593	60	10	10.4
toysboys	13	787	747	0.513	777	10	0.8
mllama54	1	63	55	0.534	56	7	7.1
spinaldog	2	124	112	0.525	118	6	3.0
winterhawk	1	59	59	0.500	57	2	2.3
emanes10	3	181	173	0.511	179	2	0.6
taxman2008	1	63	55	0.534	61	2	1.7
calhoop	2	117	119	0.496	116	1	0.3

This chart shows the top 20 teams in best differential between actual wins and expected wins (based on draft position)...
.

Rank	Team Name	Owner	Draft Pick	W-L Record	Exp Wins	Diff
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------------------	----------	---------	------------	---------
1	Giants 03-24-61-70-98-21	footballmm11	11	76-42	59.6	16.4
10	Athletics 13-26-55-66-90-20	emanes10	21	71-47	55.5	15.5
12	Braves 17-31-62-82-00-03	footballmm11	19	71-47	56.3	14.7
6	Twins 15-33-53-64-92-13	footballmm11	14	73-45	58.4	14.6
7	Tigers 18-24-44-73-84-07	footballmm11	13	73-45	58.8	14.2
15	Yankees 11-34-59-80-99-22	footballmm11	20	70-48	55.9	14.1
8	2000 1957 1979 2010 1932 1904 Americans	barracuda3	11	73-45	59.6	13.4
2	Phillies 17-29-58-80-92-07	pedrocerrano	6	75-43	61.7	13.3
5	Naps/Indians 07-25-50-74-98-17	redcped	8	74-44	60.8	13.2
21	Pittsburgh Pirates 04-29-61-68-99-07	kstober	22	68-50	55.1	12.9
14	Senators133043730208	steveizzy	17	70-48	57.2	12.8
19	Athletics 11-32-46-80-00-18	footballmm11	19	69-49	56.3	12.7
3	Giants 05-36-50-78-87-04	schwarze	4	75-43	62.5	12.5
23	White Sox 15-35-61-63-96-21	footballmm11	21	68-50	55.5	12.5
17	1919 2002 1968 1938 1955 2017 Giants	barracuda3	16	70-48	57.6	12.4
4	Tigers 09-30-45-67-87-05	schwarze	6	74-44	61.7	12.3
9	1991 BRAVES	ybjsports	8	72-46	60.8	11.2
11	Dodgers/Robins 11-24-50-81-83-22	redcped	9	71-47	60.4	10.6
18	Dodgers 16-40-47-77-88-17	richiebrown6	11	70-48	59.6	10.4
26	Cubs 03-40-52-77-97-15	beallendall	15	68-50	58.0	10.0

Thanks schwarze for posting these, honestly not sure what I did this draft that worked. I wrote up some draft thoughts at the time but never posted them, I’ll try to dig them up, but they certainly did not exude confidence.

Thru 122 games, here are the Top 20 unluckiest teams, sorted by worst 1-run winning%. Eleven of these 20 teams have an expected winning% over .500, which would normally be good enough to advance to round 5. Currently, only four of the twenty teams would advance.
.

Rank	Team Name	Owner	Act Win%	Exp Win%	1-R W%	1-Run
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------------	------------	----------	------------	---------
72	Yankees 19-1937-45-78-02-17	schwarze	0.508	0.574	0.227	5-17
122	1996 GIANTS	ybjsports	0.459	0.514	0.296	8-19
106	St. Louis Cardinals 15-25-62-81-97-03	kstober	0.484	0.531	0.310	9-20
116	Cubs 20, 38, 50, 79, 92, 20	d_rock97	0.467	0.528	0.317	13-28
37	Senators/Twins 18-32-46-75-88-04	redcped	0.549	0.585	0.333	8-16
109	Hammerin' Braves	nordawg	0.484	0.497	0.333	8-16
132	The Secret Language of Birds	harrelson	0.451	0.452	0.333	11-22
115	1906 NAPS	ybjsports	0.475	0.505	0.350	14-26
168	Cheap buffet from the Reds	big_dowg	0.336	0.376	0.351	13-24
33	Yankees 04-30-56-69-94-20	pedrocerrano	0.557	0.573	0.353	6-11
134	New York Yankees 12-32-43-68-91-07	kstober	0.443	0.530	0.355	11-20
117	Indians 03-30-44-69-88-16	schwarze	0.467	0.493	0.357	15-27
124	Giants 08-29-58-79-93-11	emanes10	0.459	0.493	0.361	13-23
139	Athletics 04-33-49-71-99-12	kstober	0.434	0.460	0.364	12-21
123	BravesLOL143656810120	steveizzy	0.459	0.512	0.371	13-22
118	GIANTS 11/27/54/67/87/12	oldtimer59	0.467	0.484	0.375	12-20
38	10/40/51/81/92/17 White Sox	toysboys	0.549	0.565	0.378	14-23
157	B's & O/s: 1921/1931/1962/1972/1997/2005	thejuice6	0.393	0.312	0.382	13-21
97	1908 1923 1996 2014 1980 1958 IndianNaps	barracuda3	0.492	0.503	0.387	12-19
166	Bloody Socks	jtpsops	0.352	0.392	0.387	12-19

I can't help but notice that footballmm11 has a bunch of the top overperforming teams relative to draft position and none of the 20 teams above that are underperforming in Win%. Besides just stating the obvious that he knows what he's doing, he's also probably managing his teams extremely well. I know not everyone works lineups on a game-by-game basis, but I'm sure (in a totally unproveable way) that you can win several extra games a season if you manage attentively. Also, we really never talk about manager settings. There must be games won and lost because of them, but we don't know how to quantify that effectively. Poor percentage base stealing matters, though. I'm sure aggressive running does, too.