90-game-or-so Update
Seven Edds and The Babe
This team has been flirting with the top record in the entire round, but mostly due to some fortunate 1-run luck (18-8) and extra innings magic (10-1). The .545 Exp% is still solid but the actual best team this round is also in our division and I fully expect emanes10's Ash Burning on the Sisler to run away from us. With a 23-game cushion above .500 and still-solid run differential numbers, this team should comfortably advance even after the regression hits.
Babe has been awesome, 3rd in the league in RC, as expected. But the Edd Roushes and Sherry Magees have held their own as well, putting this team easily in the top third of the league in scoring. The double-play versions have been very good--20 Roush is 5th among 2B in OPS and 14 Magee is 4th. 10 Magee has been our 2nd-best hitter and a very reasonable DH. And the other 3-4 versions that have held down CF and LF have mostly performed well also. At catcher, I've mainly relied on 3 of the 4 Earl Smiths and they have a colletive RC around 40, which is respectable. The only semi-disappointment has been my two Jimmy Sheckards. 03 Sheckard has been ok manning RF, but not great, and 01 Sheckard has been pretty poor at 3B. They've been my two worst regulars, with only 19 Roush (splitting time in CF, since relegated to backup duty) and my worst Earl Smith in the vicinity.
The pitching has been above-average as well. 15 Eddie Plank has been just ok (4.90 ERA), but the McQuillans and Orths have been better than expected. My starter 08 McQuillan is 13-5 with a 3.26 ERA, while his closer clone 07 McQuillan has 10 saves with a 1.26 WHIP (the 3rd McQuillan has not been as good, sporting a 7.26 ERA and getting demoted). 01 Orth has been okay as a starter (10-10, 4.87 ERA) and 08 Plank has been arguably better than his clone with a 4.00 ERA in 117 innings of long relief. Finally, my last pick, 44 Joe Berry has been very good in his 65 innings of setup relief, with a 3.43 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.
Jimmies, Willies, Eddies, and an Arky
Early on, this team had a bonkers Exp% but couldn't win a close game. That run differential has come back to earth, though we're still a bit behind it with a .506 w% and .547 Exp%. We've also benefited from being in one of the weakest divisions. We're jsut 1 game above .500 but the other 3 teams are all below .500 in both actual and Exp win%. Doubt the eventual division winner ends up below .500 but I guess it's somewhat possible it is and that winner advances based on that criteria.
Arky Vaughan disappointed early with an OPS barely above .500 in his first 20 games. Since then he's been much better and is up to .741 OPS. My 35 Foxx has been disappointing as a catcher, just middle of the pack with his .740 OPS and 32 Foxx has been just okay with an .838 OPS. My best clones have been my Willie Mays. 57 Mays is crushing it, leading my team in both OBP (.411) and SLG (.495). Both 54 and 55 Mays habe been very good as well hitting in the middle of the lineup. Unfortunately, the expected Eddie Mathews disappointment has happened. My BEST Mathews has an RC27 of 4.02 and every other player of mine except my 22 Fonseca is at 4.71 or higher. I've dropped Mathews from everything but 3B meaning 29 Fonseca is full-time 1B (shifting Foxx to DH) and he's been very good, 3rd on my team in RC27. That just leaves 3B for Mathews and 2B where 22 Fonseca hasn't hit but can at least field (11 + plays) and just needs to be spelled by Mathews against some righties.
Pitching has been pretty good with one each of Falkenberg, Brecheen, and Nehf starting--both 14 Falkenberg and 48 Brecheen have been better than league average in ERA, while 17 Nehf has a league-average WHIP but 11 HR in 119 innings have hurt his ERA (6.05). The strenght of the staff, however, has been the bullpen, where 19 Nehf (3.03 ERA), 15 Falkenberg (1.53 ERA), and 43 Niggeling (3.24 ERA, 9 saves) have been very good.
Vote for Pedro
After underperforming our Exp% for most of the season, this team is now almost an exact match for actual vs expected win%. That came after a stretch after the All-Star Break when we won 5 straight games by a total of 6 runs. The division is mostly out of play since pedrocerrano's Paint It Black team has been really good, but a wild card and/or advancement are in play.
My two Larry Walkers have been very good, especially 97 Walker who leads our team in RC and is slashing .320/.393/.562. My Beltrans and LeMahieus have been a mixed bag. 20 LeMahieu is the hitting stud and has been pretty good, with a .784 OPS. 16 LeMahieu is more of a fielder (A/B+ at 2B) but has been my worst-hitting regular. Beltran has held down all 3 outfield spots (Walker plays 1B and DH) with some versions (03) performing much better than others (08). Napoli's main season has been fantastic, slugging .555, just behind 97 Walker for the team lead, but I've needed about 1/3 of the playing time to go to his 08 version who is hitting just .192. Finally, Tony Fernandez has been about what you'd expect from the last pick in the draft--just a .672 OPS but hasn't needed a sub all year and has a .978 fielding % with 6 + plays (and 0 - plays).
The pitching staff has required much more of a dance, as I opted to roll with just 1400 innings so fatigue has been right on the precipice all year. My three Appiers all have ERAs in the 6s but have gobbled up 360 innings. My Jake McGees haven't been great--one has a 10.20 ERA, three have ERAs in the 5s, and my one good one has a 2.70 ERA. But my four Kimbrels and Pedro have been really good, all with ERAs better than 5.00 and all but one Kimbrel are south of 4.00. Pedro has given up 19 HRs but otherwise has been exemplary, with a 1.02 WHIP and 154 Ks against just 26 BBs. Hopefully can keep the fatigue in check and get enough out of Appier to maintain an overall above-average staff.
Big Hurts and a Dinelson
Up until recently, this was a very disappointing team. Through 57 games, we were around .400 in both actual and expected win%. Since then, we are 23-13 with a +54 run differential and are now up to .495 win % and .483 Exp%.
Offensively, the biggest issue has been most of my Frank Thomases. 94 Thomas has been great, with a .439 OBP and .584 SLG, but his 00 and 96 clones have been quite underwhelming, OPSing well under .800. 92 Thomas has been mostly playing only against lefties but has been worse than either of them. My Molitors have been a bit better relative to expectations but still mostly can't hit. 87 Molitor started out slowly but has been fantastic the last 50 games or so and has a .766 OPS. The other three Molitors, however, are OPSing under .700 and mostly just soaking up infield innings with reasonable defense and a bit of offense. Bobby Murcer has struggled both his 71 and 72 seasons that are getting regular playing time. Darrell Porter has been the main bright spot offensively, with an .808 OPS that's 2nd on the team and just as importantly doesn't need any rest.
The pitching has been the biggest disappointment after I spent my first 3 picks on pitchers. Lamet has a 6.64 ERA while 20 Burnes is right there with him at 6.60. 21 Burnes has been bettter, with a 4.36 ERA though he's slumped lately with an ERA over 6 as well. The Gagnes have been amazing, pitching 120 innings combined and all three ahve ERA under 3.00. Chapman, as expected has a couple solid seasons despite astronomical walk totals--he has one version with a 2.91 ERA, three versions with ERA in the 4s, and then a 6.20 ERA with 8+ walks per 9 innings. Finally, Peavy's best season, 2007, has been pretty good--better than my two of my three supposedly stud starters! His 05 seasons is mostly just an innings eater though and has a 7.26 ERA. Hopefully Lamet and Burnes can right the ship and we get a little more production from the Big Hurt to continue this hot streak that has us back in contention for advancement.