Providing some commentary in this year's confernce play is like diferentiating between pieces of straw in a hay stack. There are so many high quality teams that will all compete for a spot in the post season. The quality means something close to the following: A 10-6 mark guarantees a spot in the NT. A 9-7 mark puts your odds at .65, and a 8-8 mark puts our odds at .4. Reminds me of the ACC in its glory years.

With the teams so closely packed in the North, it will be hard to do much better than France's formula projections. But it's best to start at the bottom. Salibury has a .25 chance of winning a game in the conference. Toppdog's final year Salisbury with some pieces of a puzzle. However, right now those pieces are scrambled at the bottom of the box. Now comes the hard part. When it becomes hard to sort things out, it's my philosophy to rely on IQ. IQ has long been a massive part of HD. Which is what I believe has led to the super-class phenomonon. So I'll put youth last. Marymount only has one senior. Stoval is great, but he can't shoot free throws. Let's say that costs Marymount two games down the stretch against Mary Washington and Gallaudet. That makes NC 7-9. Goucher's up next. Miker will have to decide how much he will sacrifice player development to be successful this year. In particular, he's got some real depth issues in the backcourt.... this means turnovers, which will negate his strength, defense. Miker goes 8-8. Mary Washington and Gallaudet have now built teams capable of making it to the NT. Now it's time to assert their coaching prowess. I'll put one of these teams at 8-8 and the otherat 9-7. I like MaryWashington to be the 9-7 team- Rebounding AND Defense the reason. The Cardinals round out the North. I'll say they go 11-5, however, I'll wager that one of the four teams chasing the cardinals puts together a run that challenges the Cardinals for the throne. If that run includes two games against the Cardinals, that might put two teams at 10-6. I'd be so suprised to see any team in the North go 13-3. 12-4 is possible, but that to me just seem like a tough goal to accomplish. Possible yes, likely no. But I also thought last year would be closer than it was.

The South is a LITTLE more clear than the North. Welcome to ob, who takes over the throne at Chestnutt Hill. This will be a tough year at the Hill, who appears to be switching defenses to the FCP. This may be a good match with the Fastreak offense for the longrun. For the shortrun, however, this means low IQ's, and not enough athletes to compete in the most competitive conference in DIII. The Hill goes 1-15. The Hood is rebooting in a Southern conference that could have 4 teams in the top 20 at the end of the year (if we don't beat each other up too much). Interestingly, I believe that if Kreller goes 8-2 in nonconference, he may end up with an rpi under 100, and a post season birth, if he can sneek out say, 6 games in conference. That said, I see Kreller taking home a 4-12 record. I put Baptist, St. Mary's, and myself at 10-6. We go 3-3 against each other, lose two to York, and one against a Northern opponent (although, I may be forgetting to add in York's annual loss to the Thumpers). We'll see if York hasn't fixed it's issues against the press. As for York, they are simply awesome. They are the best team in the best division. They can defend, they are athletic, and they have offensive stars. Rogue's lone weakness is some lack of depth in the perimeter, but heck, I'm not sure how to expose that.... I bet bugs knows. York goes 15-1 on a loss to an unexpected team in double OT.