Posted by robusk on 7/22/2010 3:57:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tisi29 on 7/22/2010 3:52:00 PM (view original):
Posted by robusk on 7/22/2010 3:43:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tisi29 on 7/22/2010 3:38:00 PM (view original):
Idiot or not, it makes more sense to spend 2x value on a great player than 3x value on a mid-level player.
Well... Â not exactly.
For example, I would rather spend, for example 10 mil on 220 innings at a 4 ERA than 10 million at 60 innings at a 3.5 ERA.
I am not saying that is the exact math here, but both contracts are horrible and in this case you are probably spending 75% of the money for 25% of the innings at probably 150% of the effectiveness.
I'm saying I'd rather spend $12M for a player that will be worth 3 wins a year over 75 innings (even though he is really only worth $6M), than $18M for a player that will be worth 3 wins a year over 225 innings (which I'd say makes him worth about $6M).
At those numbers sure...
I wouldn't claim to know any more than you about HBD... Â probably the opposite in fact.
I would just question whether those win totals would be right for the two players in question.
someone worth 3 wins in 75 innings is an awesome RP - think somewhere between Billy Wagner and Mariano Rivera
someone worth 3 wins in 225 innings is a decent ML SP - think somewhere between Randy Wolf and John Lackey
I'd rather pay the RP $12M though he is not worth it, value-wise - than the SP $18M (also not worth it, value-wise).