colonel - hard to keep up with your evolving views
opinion #1 (colonel in bold)
"it isnt luck that causes it - it is success - which creates enhanced prestige and opens the window to those better players But its luck to see who drops down and who doesn't, its something that varies from season to season and such players are only available to the elite teams in D2 or D3, further driving a rift between the very good and very bad teams in those divisions."
opinion #2 (again, colonel in bold)
"it isnt luck - with knowledge and analysis one can do a very good job predicting who will drop, who will be available etc - if it appears to be luck to some that reflects their lack of experience and understanding of the process. they should begin by reading the many threads on the topic But you don't know for certain who is going to drop and who isn't, thus there is some luck/unpredictability involved. Like I said before, I'd be much happier if we didn't have drop downs at all...it further muddies the murky water."
As you shift from "it is luck" to "there is some luck/unpredictability involved"....
Please consider what I and others are saying - while there surely is some randomness and significant uncertainty, your opinion #1 "its luck" is surely incorrect. And of course your opinion #2 "there is some luck/unpredictability" is an extremely different proposition and undeniable - in any interesting game there is unpredictability.
The key thing that novices should learn is that there is a lot that can be anlyzed and understood about dropdowns etc - if you think it is luck then you also think that the fielder who happens to adjust to right where the batter hits the ball is just lucky rather than considering the hypothesis that through through knowledge and analysis one can enhance the odds a lot.
But if your opinion is now opinion #2 it is fer sure correct, there is some luck and unpredictability in drop downs.