Quote: Originally Posted By iain on 1/30/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By schuyler101 on 1/30/2010

Quote: Originally posted by pirateswin2 on 1/29/2010you still have never given any reason not to play the guy who is over acheiving a few extra games until he stops, what is the beneifit of not playing the hot player if he is playing better than the better rated guy anyway?[/QUOTE]

because going forward there is no reason to think the overchiever is more likely to continue to outperform the better rated player (unless we're misjudging the ratings but for simplicity's sake let's just say we have identical players except for the better rated player having better contact/splits/power and eye.) At bats for a player are independent events and admin has stated there are no "hot streaks".

When does the "hot streak" end? All we can do is try to determine what is most likely to happen next when setting our lineup or rotation. If (as admin has stated) there are no hot streaks then why choose a player with inferior ratings?

My coin flipping analogy still stands. If you flip 6 heads in a row and you know that the coin isn't rigged (in the analogy this is admin saying there are no hot streaks) then would you bet a dollar to win .50 that the next flip will be heads? No and you'd be foolish to.

Not that I believe in these streaks anyway but to someone that does can't it also be argued that you're overachiever is "due" to come back down to earth and will underperform going forward? Or the underachiever is "due" to start performing great...

PS I love MikeT's little trick of posting someone's record in an ad hominem attack if he doesn't like what they have to say. Don't attack the argument, attack the person! I think this is the 3rd time he's posted my record because I disagreed with him...

You're forcing me to agree with the troll, and that's ******* me off....

How can you claim to know that a certain player is better than another, except by performance?

Sure, one can assume that certain ratings will make a player better, but that doesn't always mean that he will be better.

Unless you are one of the programmers/developers... don't pretend to know everything about a game.

Quote: Originally posted by iain on 1/30/2010The important line: "How can you claim to know that a certain player is better than another, except by performance?"

Quote: Originally posted by schuyler101 on 1/30/2010

Quote: Originally posted by MikeT23 on 1/30/2010schuyler, I posted your sub .500 record so anyone reading this thread would understand that you're not some HBD savant.   People, including n00bs, read these threads for help.  Threads like this.  When someone is adamant that they're right, some people(like n00bs) may take it as gospel.  I hoped to prevent that.FYI, I don't think I presented an opinion on this particular matter.   Dig around if you'd like.Lastly, and FWIW, I tend to agree with you.   However, I'm willing to accept that I may be misreading/misunderstanding ratings and how they're working under this version of the game engine.   So, if I have a player who is overplaying my understanding of the ratings, I let him play til he proves me right.

"(unless we're misjudging the ratings but for simplicity's sake let's just say we have identical players except for the better rated player having better contact/splits/power and eye.)"

This is from my last post...

I'm trying to be very clear that I am not talking about misjudging ratings here, one would need to be an HBD savant to be able to do that with 100% accuracy.

Quote: Originally posted by iain on 1/30/2010I guess what I was trying to suggest is that what you or I might perceive as a "hot streak" for a marginal MLer may in fact be a rating combination that we hadn't considered as being terribly potent.Why not give them a few more appearances to see if you've uncovered a true Diamond in the Rough?As a group, we tend to gripe about underperforming players, but rarely give the overperformers a chance.... imho.

Quote: Originally Posted By bighead34 on 1/30/2010

Quote: Originally posted by schuyler101 on 1/30/2010

Quote: Originally posted by MikeT23 on 1/30/201
schuyler, I posted your sub .500 record so anyone reading this thread would understand that you're not some HBD savant. People, including n00bs, read these threads for help. Threads like this. When someone is adamant that they're right, some people(like n00bs) may take it as gospel. I hoped to prevent that.

FYI, I don't think I presented an opinion on this particular matter. Dig around if you'd like.

Lastly, and FWIW, I tend to agree with you. However, I'm willing to accept that I may be misreading/misunderstanding ratings and how they're working under this version of the game engine. So, if I have a player who is overplaying my understanding of the ratings, I let him play til he proves me right.

"(unless we're misjudging the ratings but for simplicity's sake let's just say we have identical players except for the better rated player having better contact/splits/power and eye.)"

This is from my last post...

I'm trying to be very clear that I am not talking about misjudging ratings here, one would need to be an HBD savant to be able to do that with 100% accuracy.

did anyone else notice that this was originally posted at 1:50 by petec?...i hate to stick my nose in an alias situation, but i feel obligated to point this out (they both play in the same world)...is it possible there was a glitch?...am i going crazy?...if i'm mistaken, apologies to all parties in advanc


Wasn't around. But schulyer and petec haven't made a single trade. Only "oddity" is one is zero on HS and the other is zero on College. Both have money in ADV. If they're cheating, they're doing it poorly.

Quote: Originally posted by bighead34 on 1/30/2010i am 99.9% sure i saw it, my only doubt comes from the fact no one else seems to have seen it...but he had it edited in 4 mins so it wasn't up there very long

Quote: Originally Posted By schuyler101 on 1/30/2010

Quote: Originally posted by bighead34 on 1/30/2010 i am 99.9% sure i saw it, my only doubt comes from the fact no one else seems to have seen it...but he had it edited in 4 mins so it wasn't up there very long

You're right you did see it. I know the owner who runs petec and have occasionally done game planning in Hoops Dynasty for him when hes on vacation or otherwise away from a computer (we played in the same HD world for awhile). I have his password and had logged in last night to see how he did in the Smith PIT. This morning when I got on this thread I simply forgot to log out of his screen name.

I do know the identity of petec but I promised I wouldn't reveal who it is, that's up to the individual. This is a bit more relevant in HD as he isn't as "loud" in the HBD forums as he is in the HD ones, where he is a bit more well known. I will say his alias is not active in the Summer of 49 though.



Sounds shifty since you share a world.

Quote: Originally Posted By schuyler101 on 1/30/2010

Quote: Originally posted by iain on 1/30/2010
I guess what I was trying to suggest is that what you or I might perceive as a "hot streak" for a marginal MLer may in fact be a rating combination that we hadn't considered as being terribly potent.

Why not give them a few more appearances to see if you've uncovered a true Diamond in the Rough?

As a group, we tend to gripe about underperforming players, but rarely give the overperformers a chance.... imho.

I agree

The problem iain is that we're kind of talking about 2 different things, look at my above post for an example of what I'm talking about