Posted by deanod on 12/29/2011 1:39:00 PM (view original):

Posted by jvford on 12/29/2011 1:20:00 PM (view original):
Agreed.  Celts only real move is to get the 8th seed and make one last run.

They're more likely to get the 3 seed than the 8th seed.

probably 4 or 5, could see them slipping to 6, but it would be a reallly rough fall to slide to the 8th seed since that would mean they're like a .500 team.

I think they're 3-4 seed talented, but they're likely to do just enough to get to the playoffs.  I can see a lot of rest for 2 of the Big 3.

That being said, they'll probably gut it out to get to the 6th seed and avoid Miami/Chicago in the first round.

Meh, the whole switch thing gets overstated.

 

They won 56 games last year, they aren't THAT lackadaisacal about regular season wins.

Yeah, but there are a sh*tload of back to backs, 3 in a row, as well as some 5 in 7 and 7 in 9 on the schedule.  Don't you think Doc will mail in some unwinables?

Posted by deanod on 12/29/2011 1:07:00 PM (view original):

so you think all but like 5 teams should tank?  that seems pretty reasonable.

JON has no value outside of an expiring contract

KG is such a large expiring that he's basically unmovable

Ray is really the only movable piece, but I doubt anybody is offering > a late 1st rounder, which isn't that important since we're already going to have 2 late firsts and we can probably re-sign him for cheap next year.

Seriously, try building a realistic trade where Ray or KG goes to another team and the Celtics become good.  It's not gonna happen.

Sure we're going to be huge dogs against the Heat and Bulls, but we were huge dogs to the Cavs and Magic in 10 and beat them anyway.  There is value to making one last run, even if it might be a feeble one.  There is not much value to dumping our vets for odds and ends.

Nothing I said would indicate I believe all but 5 teams should tank.  There are plenty of young teams on the way up that shouldn't be in firesale mode (Indiana, Philadelphia, Memphis, etc.) that while probably aren't title contenders shouldn't be throwing in the towel either.  They are however young and reasonably are going to get better and easily could get into title contention without major roster construction (if the young guys develop).  Teams that should be strongly considering selling off pieces should be Boston, San Antonio, and Phoenix (nash).  Teams that may get to that point this year or in the next year or two are the Lakers, Mavericks, and Hawks.  Some teams like Detroit just suck and have no on the roster worth a damn (at least Cleveland, Washington, and Minnesota have some young talented players - Detroit is just bad).  Some teams are in the gray area where they could go either way like Charlotte, New Orleans (now with Gordon), Milwaukee, etc.

That's a lot of winnables to mail in to go all the way to .500, jv.  The Celtics should at least be able to finagle like 36-30, which probably gets the 5/6 seed.

 

Moronis, you probably think the Mavs should have sold off their pieces last year.

Well, they are 0-3 and I think they have something like 11 games in the last 15 days of January, along with several similar stretches the rest of the season.  But I think your right that they should manage 36 wins.

Posted by deanod on 12/29/2011 2:31:00 PM (view original):
That's a lot of winnables to mail in to go all the way to .500, jv.  The Celtics should at least be able to finagle like 36-30, which probably gets the 5/6 seed.

 

Moronis, you probably think the Mavs should have sold off their pieces last year.

Not at all.  They had at least one more season in them given the age of Dirk, Butler, Marion, Terry, Kidd, and with "younger" guys like Chandler and Stevenson around.  Had they flamed out last years and still lost Chandler, Stevenson, and Butler, then they would be in the same boat as Boston and San Antonio are, but they didn't so you have to now see where there are this season.  If they flame out this season, then yes, the Mavs should go into sell mode this summer (which doesn't necessarily mean get rid of Dirk, but certainly could).

I could certainly see Boston winning 36 games (if Pierce comes back quickly and they stay relatively healthy all season), but so what.  What the hell does that do?  Get Boston to the playoffs to lose in the first or second round.  The team isn't going to miraculously become a contender.  The key players are almost all on the downside of their careers, which means they are going to get worse not better as the season wears on.  Being healthy is already a factor and it isn't going to get better. 

If you aren't going to realistically compete for the title with the roster as presently constructed, then you need to be making moves and doing things that will get you there.  Sitting around and letting three valuable expiring contracts go off the books with nothing in return is a waste and just prolongs the inevitable rebuilding process.

The Celts have a better chance of competing for the title this season then getting anything significant for their expiring contracts.

I actually think they should be shipping JON + Bradley + Pavs + 2 picks for Varejao and Anthony Parker.

Rondo/Allen/Pierce/Garnett/Varejao would be an elite starting 5, absolutely would have a shot at the title.

Love that deal.  Not sure why Cleveland would do that.  They'll be under the cap next season without moving Varejao and I think they can get more than a couple of crappy draft picks for him.

Eh, the draft is pretty deep, I think 2 late first rounders is a pretty reasonable haul for him since they will likely not ever be competitive over the span of his current contract.

 

ETA- also I know a Cavs fan who seems to think that Boston's 2 firsts is Cleveland's best possible return for Varejao, so it's reasonably likely that it would be best offer on the table for the Cavs.

I guess.  Just seems like they could do better raping a contender before the trade deadline.

Miami- nothing to offer
Chicago- could offer Gibson + Asik, but they're working so well for them I wouldn't expect them to do so
Knicks- nothing to offer
Magic- doesn't really fit in with Dwight/nothing to offer
Spurs- not a great fit or obvious package
Lakers- anything useful they could offer would be an overpay
Clippers- blew their wad on Paul
Mavs- got nothing to offer, saving up for next season
Nugs- maybe can whip something together to upgrade Mozgov
Grizz- got nothing
OKC- maybe, but they already paid up for Perk, not sure Cleveland would be interested in taking him back

I mean there aren't going to be too many contenders who are knocking down their door to add him.

Would probably require a three-teamer to top the Celts. Somehow I see Houston getting involved in just about any trade discussion this season.

But I hope you're right because the Celts are instantly one of the teams to beat ith that trade.

i dunno, i think ainge might be too gay about his cap space and late 1sts to pursue it.