Posted by tianyi7886 on 5/9/2012 1:36:00 AM (view original):
Not schedule 10 games against terrible teams, but schedule 10 games against decent teams (18-25win range) that you can beat. Avoid the bottom tier bcs teams like the plague. They are generally decent, will be better than the average mid major, and will kill your SOS because they will go something like 3-13 or 4-12 in conf play. 

Not to disagree, but most 25 win teams I see aren't in the "decent" category.  They are very good.  There are only 26 games + 3 CT games + NT/PT, so assuming you are going all in, a 25 win team is like 25-5 or something. 

I would say you are looking for teams that win 14-18 regular season games.

Posted by reinsel on 5/9/2012 9:16:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tianyi7886 on 5/9/2012 1:36:00 AM (view original):
Not schedule 10 games against terrible teams, but schedule 10 games against decent teams (18-25win range) that you can beat. Avoid the bottom tier bcs teams like the plague. They are generally decent, will be better than the average mid major, and will kill your SOS because they will go something like 3-13 or 4-12 in conf play. 

Not to disagree, but most 25 win teams I see aren't in the "decent" category.  They are very good.  There are only 26 games + 3 CT games + NT/PT, so assuming you are going all in, a 25 win team is like 25-5 or something. 

I would say you are looking for teams that win 14-18 regular season games.

I only agree with half of tianyi's post.

Yes - bottom tier BCS teams are probably better than average mid-majors so getting a win will be tougher.
No - they won't kill your SOS because even if they lose a bunch of their games, the competition that they're playing is so good that it's keeping your SOS and RPI higher. Take UNC in Naismith last year. Only 3 conference wins, still a 116 RPI.

I think your arguments about scheduling are a little to simplistic, which was pointed out by reinsel above. 

someone with actual math skills can chime in here, but I'd bet that 9 times out of 10 you're better off beating the 20-win, 200 RPI team than the 10-win, 100 RPI team (the bad ACC team). I guarantee you're better off beating the 20/200 team than losing to the 10/100 team. And, since there are enough of those 20/200s out there that are SIM-coached, the wins will come easier.

Posted by reinsel on 5/9/2012 9:16:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tianyi7886 on 5/9/2012 1:36:00 AM (view original):
Not schedule 10 games against terrible teams, but schedule 10 games against decent teams (18-25win range) that you can beat. Avoid the bottom tier bcs teams like the plague. They are generally decent, will be better than the average mid major, and will kill your SOS because they will go something like 3-13 or 4-12 in conf play. 

Not to disagree, but most 25 win teams I see aren't in the "decent" category.  They are very good.  There are only 26 games + 3 CT games + NT/PT, so assuming you are going all in, a 25 win team is like 25-5 or something. 

I would say you are looking for teams that win 14-18 regular season games.

If you can find 10 18-25 win teams that you can beat, you don't need to worry about scheduling, you are already an elite team.

Posted by ekswimmer on 5/9/2012 1:17:00 AM (view original):
I've always concentrated on the prestige piece of this argument. But after reading some of Professor's comments, I tend to agree with him mostly. Maybe you do need to be in the top 30 to get a B+. If that is true, then the prestige system may not be far off form what I think it should be.

Then the problem becomes that fact that no mid-majors have the ability to get into the top 30. There just aren't enough recruits to allow them to fall to the better mid majors. Even the non-BCS teams with higher baselines (A10, Gonzaga) can't get there. Even in real life, those teams can get there. So if we are trying to mirror real life, then SOME of these teams, at the least, should be able to get into the B+/A- range.

I also think we shouldn't just be mirroring real life. No one is playing this game to coach at Eastern Michigan knowing you can't get above a B/B+.  Yes, it should be hard, but the ability to create a power should exist. As the format stands today, that is impossible.

Why do you think no mid majors have the ability to get into the top 30? That's not true? I do agree that it's harder than it should be for a non-BCS team to get into the top 30, but it's certainly far from impossible.

Posted by cburton23 on 5/9/2012 9:53:00 AM (view original):

Posted by reinsel on 5/9/2012 9:16:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tianyi7886 on 5/9/2012 1:36:00 AM (view original):
Not schedule 10 games against terrible teams, but schedule 10 games against decent teams (18-25win range) that you can beat. Avoid the bottom tier bcs teams like the plague. They are generally decent, will be better than the average mid major, and will kill your SOS because they will go something like 3-13 or 4-12 in conf play. 

Not to disagree, but most 25 win teams I see aren't in the "decent" category.  They are very good.  There are only 26 games + 3 CT games + NT/PT, so assuming you are going all in, a 25 win team is like 25-5 or something. 

I would say you are looking for teams that win 14-18 regular season games.

If you can find 10 18-25 win teams that you can beat, you don't need to worry about scheduling, you are already an elite team.

No doubt, cb.

Posted by emy1013 on 5/9/2012 2:24:00 AM (view original):
Since an actual number came up for prestiges (top 30, roughly, earns you a B+), what would the opinions be on how many teams (in general) should be able to have an A+, A, A- prestige at any given time, in any given season?  My personal opinion is that there are too many teams in that range as it is, but I'm not sure I can decide just how many teams should be at those elevated levels.

I'd be interested to hear what some of you other coaches think, what your criteria would be to achieve an A+ prestige, what you would need to maintain that prestige, and how many teams should have that high of a prestige at one time? 

I think this is a good question/point, emy.

To be at an A+, I think you should consistently be making deep tourney runs. Maybe not every single season - upsets happen -- but pretty close. As it stands, I think it's a bit too easy to get to A+ (at least partly because teams are artificually buoyed by strong conferences).

An A team would be a team that maybe makes deep NT runs half the time and is making the NT the rest.

An A- team is making the NT every season with maybe a deep NT run 1 in 3.

And teams that generally make the NT but don't (or rarely) make deep runs would be in the B- to B+ range.

(Don't mean to oversimplify by just using the NT as a a barometer, but I believe if you're a high-end team making consistent deep runs, the other criteria you'd want to see -- wins, rpi, etc. etc. -- will pretty obviously follow suit with those results.)

Yeah girt, I think there is some 'prestige inflation'.  Mostly in the big conferences, they bottom teams are helped by conf prestige so that 1st round NT exits every other year in the ACC leads to an A-. 

Couple of points.

In regard to 18-25 wins. There are 29 D1 simai teams in Wooden with 17 wins or more. There are 18 simai teams in Rupp D1 with 18 or more wins. Not many of those simai teams are good.

To dw's post regarding UNC winning only 3 games but 116 rpi. You do realize SOS is determined by (2/3*your opponents numbers of wins) + (1/3 your opponents' opponents' number of wins) right? Their rpi has no bearing. A game against a 20 win teams with 200 rpi will boost your SOS more than a game against a 10 win team with 80 rpi. 

Posted by girt25 on 5/9/2012 9:57:00 AM (view original):

Posted by ekswimmer on 5/9/2012 1:17:00 AM (view original):
I've always concentrated on the prestige piece of this argument. But after reading some of Professor's comments, I tend to agree with him mostly. Maybe you do need to be in the top 30 to get a B+. If that is true, then the prestige system may not be far off form what I think it should be.

Then the problem becomes that fact that no mid-majors have the ability to get into the top 30. There just aren't enough recruits to allow them to fall to the better mid majors. Even the non-BCS teams with higher baselines (A10, Gonzaga) can't get there. Even in real life, those teams can get there. So if we are trying to mirror real life, then SOME of these teams, at the least, should be able to get into the B+/A- range.

I also think we shouldn't just be mirroring real life. No one is playing this game to coach at Eastern Michigan knowing you can't get above a B/B+.  Yes, it should be hard, but the ability to create a power should exist. As the format stands today, that is impossible.

Why do you think no mid majors have the ability to get into the top 30? That's not true? I do agree that it's harder than it should be for a non-BCS team to get into the top 30, but it's certainly far from impossible.

It's definitely possible. Bragging about my team here obviously, but we are ranked #24 with #6 rpi:

http://whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=13759

Posted by tianyi7886 on 5/9/2012 12:53:00 PM (view original):
Couple of points.

In regard to 18-25 wins. There are 29 D1 simai teams in Wooden with 17 wins or more. There are 18 simai teams in Rupp D1 with 18 or more wins. Not many of those simai teams are good.

To dw's post regarding UNC winning only 3 games but 116 rpi. You do realize SOS is determined by (2/3*your opponents numbers of wins) + (1/3 your opponents' opponents' number of wins) right? Their rpi has no bearing. A game against a 20 win teams with 200 rpi will boost your SOS more than a game against a 10 win team with 80 rpi. 

I'll grant you that there are SIM AI teams with their share of wins, but if you are in a rebuild many of them will beat you.  Further, trying to pick which teams will be those big winners is difficult depending on non-con scheduling for that team.  If a number of good teams see that team as one they can beat they may go 2-8 in non-con, then need to win out in league.

But most importantly many of those teams will fall outside the Top 100 and well outside the Top 50, so while it may help your RPI you get killed in the projection report

Posted by cburton23 on 5/9/2012 1:08:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tianyi7886 on 5/9/2012 12:53:00 PM (view original):
Couple of points.

In regard to 18-25 wins. There are 29 D1 simai teams in Wooden with 17 wins or more. There are 18 simai teams in Rupp D1 with 18 or more wins. Not many of those simai teams are good.

To dw's post regarding UNC winning only 3 games but 116 rpi. You do realize SOS is determined by (2/3*your opponents numbers of wins) + (1/3 your opponents' opponents' number of wins) right? Their rpi has no bearing. A game against a 20 win teams with 200 rpi will boost your SOS more than a game against a 10 win team with 80 rpi. 

I'll grant you that there are SIM AI teams with their share of wins, but if you are in a rebuild many of them will beat you.  Further, trying to pick which teams will be those big winners is difficult depending on non-con scheduling for that team.  If a number of good teams see that team as one they can beat they may go 2-8 in non-con, then need to win out in league.

But most importantly many of those teams will fall outside the Top 100 and well outside the Top 50, so while it may help your RPI you get killed in the projection report

I stand corrected. I exaggerated a little in my post. But I still stand behind my general theme. The fact remains that it is far harder to bring a non-BCS team to national prominence than it is in real life. Everyone knows about the recent final four runs, no need to name them. When's the last time a non-BCS team made it out of the sweet 16? (I'm only in Naismith so I only have that as a reference). In fact, I believe other than BYU, I'm the only team to even get to the sweet 16 in the past 4 years.

This is a slightly different topic than scheduling, since you actually need to recruit to make NT runs. It's the number of recruits that after 4 years can compete with the big boys that are a huge issue, I think.

However, given that the recruit generation exists as is, scheduling has become more important than ever, because the Projection Report is so biased towards BCS leagues. It's just one more point of frustration when trying to coach outside the BCS leagues.

Posted by cburton23 on 5/9/2012 1:08:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tianyi7886 on 5/9/2012 12:53:00 PM (view original):
Couple of points.

In regard to 18-25 wins. There are 29 D1 simai teams in Wooden with 17 wins or more. There are 18 simai teams in Rupp D1 with 18 or more wins. Not many of those simai teams are good.

To dw's post regarding UNC winning only 3 games but 116 rpi. You do realize SOS is determined by (2/3*your opponents numbers of wins) + (1/3 your opponents' opponents' number of wins) right? Their rpi has no bearing. A game against a 20 win teams with 200 rpi will boost your SOS more than a game against a 10 win team with 80 rpi. 

I'll grant you that there are SIM AI teams with their share of wins, but if you are in a rebuild many of them will beat you.  Further, trying to pick which teams will be those big winners is difficult depending on non-con scheduling for that team.  If a number of good teams see that team as one they can beat they may go 2-8 in non-con, then need to win out in league.

But most importantly many of those teams will fall outside the Top 100 and well outside the Top 50, so while it may help your RPI you get killed in the projection report

Look at the the wooden/rupp D1 simai teams with more than 18 wins, a majority of them have rpi below 100, with a couple with rpi below 50. These games help your rpi and projection report standings. 

Wooden has 0 Sim AI in the Top 50.  Rupp has 2.  Ohio State and Wofford.  Both are difficult teams.  As I said, if you can for sure beat those teams you are already a very good team

Posted by cburton23 on 5/9/2012 1:59:00 PM (view original):
Wooden has 0 Sim AI in the Top 50.  Rupp has 2.  Ohio State and Wofford.  Both are difficult teams.  As I said, if you can for sure beat those teams you are already a very good team

You said most of those simai are outside of t100, when they are in fact mostly in t100. T100 wins carry positive value in projection report.