"Oh, I get it. The double randomization process the way its done skews the results to give the higher ranked owners an easier draw. I have yet to see anything to convince me otherwise."

This is all the you need to read to understand he's clueless and no amount of explanation will make a difference.

It's amazing how 95 other owners don't seem to have any issues or complaints.

* The leagues will not be determined randomly, but the divisions within each league will be. Once the 96 owners have purchased the $15 GC, then I will use a complex formula, originally developed by schwarze and updated by ozomatli, to rank every entrant and use this ranking for the league alignments for Round 1. This will essentially distribute the higher-ranking owners into different leagues.

This is what I'm saying. The "complex formula" to distribute the high ranked owners into different leagues is what's skewing the draw. It is the definition of skewing the draw. Randomization would say that it would be possible for the top four ranked owners to be in the same division. This process makes that impossible. How can you call the draw fair in that light? This is at best a flawed process and at worst a scam.

One last table for comparison..

These three divisions are measured the same based on the average of the four seeded teams...

A	B	C
1	11	21
96	86	76
48	38	28
49	59	69
48.5	48.5	48.5

But, according to hurst47, this tournament is rigged, favoring #1 seed because he drew the "easy" division.

In hurst47's perfect world, this is his preferred division alignment.

A	B	C
1	38	69
11	48	76
21	49	86
28	59	96
15.25	48.5	81.75

Good luck getting people to join this tournament

You're the one who's not getting it Schwarze. You and your "complex formula" for league assignments is skewing the draw to favor the high ranked owners.

Posted by hurst47 on 8/13/2019 10:02:00 PM (view original):
You're the one who's not getting it Schwarze. You and your "complex formula" for league assignments is skewing the draw to favor the high ranked owners.

Give it up already. High-ranked owners are supposed to have an advantage. That’s how it works.

Someone brought up March Madness. Should Duke and UNC meet in the first round so 16 seeds have a better shot?

Hint: the answer is no.

Anyway, you entered the tournament clearly knowing the format. So it’s a little late to whine now.

Again, hurst47, I would encourage you to stop engaging with owners who don't make these decisions and aren't responsible for running the tournament. You have yet to directly address a single comment I've made, which confuses me.

Owners are ranked based on past performance specifically to ensure an even distribution of quality across the 4 versions of each league (or at least to make a best effort at it -- the formula isn't perfect). This is in service of the goal of the tournament, which is to crown the best owner that year as the champion.

This is only my 3rd WISC but I go in understanding something. . . . there is a 90%+ chance the winner will come from a group of about 7 owners who most of us could list. The divisional draws are the least of my problems. Winning is hard, even for the best of the best. I play this game for fun and this tournament is worth the price of admission for the themes, camaraderie, discussion, stats, rankings, experience, learning, and most of all the excitement of refreshing that browser 3 times a day to hopefully see W-W-W-W-W-W but if not you tweak your lineups and move on.

I feel fortunate the alignments are random. If we're being honest, one COULD make the case that the best owners should be spread out and get weaker opponents, just like March Madness. That's actually more "normal" in tournaments of any kind. Just bring your A game and if it doesn't work out, figure out why and fix it next time.

Don't get bitter. . . . .get better.

Hurst is worried about his wasted money. I'd kick in 5 bucks towards reimbursing him just to get this topic closed. There seems to be confusion over the meaning of "fair" and "equal". A random distribution is fair by definition. But it may not be equal. I've competed in every ones of theae tourneys (sometimes advancing and sometimes not). I can't recall a single time my division alignment was even a minor factor.

Why give up when I've discovered the source of the bias? That shouldn't be how a "random" draw should work. The draw should be fair for all and not favor anyone or any group. Right now you've got a Ponzi scheme for a tournament and I don't think that's particularly fair.

Posted by markeking on 8/13/2019 10:19:00 PM (view original):
Hurst is worried about his wasted money. I'd kick in 5 bucks towards reimbursing him just to get this topic closed. There seems to be confusion over the meaning of "fair" and "equal". A random distribution is fair by definition. But it may not be equal. I've competed in every ones of theae tourneys (sometimes advancing and sometimes not). I can't recall a single time my division alignment was even a minor factor.

It's not totally random though. They say in the intro it's not and that's my point.

Posted by ozomatli on 8/13/2019 10:20:00 PM (view original):
Again, hurst47, I would encourage you to stop engaging with owners who don't make these decisions and aren't responsible for running the tournament. You have yet to directly address a single comment I've made, which confuses me.

Owners are ranked based on past performance specifically to ensure an even distribution of quality across the 4 versions of each league (or at least to make a best effort at it -- the formula isn't perfect). This is in service of the goal of the tournament, which is to crown the best owner that year as the champion.

You're secret formula is skewing the draw. I can't be more plain than that.

Posted by hurst47 on 8/13/2019 10:24:00 PM (view original):

Posted by ozomatli on 8/13/2019 10:20:00 PM (view original):
Again, hurst47, I would encourage you to stop engaging with owners who don't make these decisions and aren't responsible for running the tournament. You have yet to directly address a single comment I've made, which confuses me.

Owners are ranked based on past performance specifically to ensure an even distribution of quality across the 4 versions of each league (or at least to make a best effort at it -- the formula isn't perfect). This is in service of the goal of the tournament, which is to crown the best owner that year as the champion.

You're secret formula is skewing the draw. I can't be more plain than that.

I'm happy to personally refund the cost of your GC if you feel scammed.

I will say though, this approach has been public for 15 years -- I would encourage you to think critically about your own viewpoint and whether in truth you've uncovered something secret, or if you are misconstruing something.

Posted by hurst47 on 8/13/2019 9:54:00 PM (view original):
* The leagues will not be determined randomly, but the divisions within each league will be. Once the 96 owners have purchased the $15 GC, then I will use a complex formula, originally developed by schwarze and updated by ozomatli, to rank every entrant and use this ranking for the league alignments for Round 1. This will essentially distribute the higher-ranking owners into different leagues.

This is what I'm saying. The "complex formula" to distribute the high ranked owners into different leagues is what's skewing the draw. It is the definition of skewing the draw. Randomization would say that it would be possible for the top four ranked owners to be in the same division. This process makes that impossible. How can you call the draw fair in that light? This is at best a flawed process and at worst a scam.

You forgot to mention that the lower-ranked owners are also distributed into different leagues.

Here are the facts:

Every league has a certain number of high ranked and lower ranked owners.
All the leagues seem to have relatively the same average strength.
The divisions themselves within a league are generated randomly by Whatifsports.

It is virtually impossible for the "complex formula" to distribute high ranked owners into different leagues to skew the draw, because every league has a high ranked owner (or two). It is simple mathematics that an owner like Brianjw is likely to get an "easier" division when the measurement in question excludes his own owner ranking, and on top of that he got lucky. At no point does this have anything to do with League Assignments, and everything to do with luck of the draw.

In order for the "complex formula" to skew the draw, some leagues would have to have highly ranked owners and other leagues would have to have none. For example, a league has 3 or 4 top ranked owners and everyone else is in the bottom 24, while another league has no top owners but is filled with people in the 20-50 range.

Posted by ozomatli on 8/13/2019 10:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by hurst47 on 8/13/2019 10:24:00 PM (view original):

Posted by ozomatli on 8/13/2019 10:20:00 PM (view original):
Again, hurst47, I would encourage you to stop engaging with owners who don't make these decisions and aren't responsible for running the tournament. You have yet to directly address a single comment I've made, which confuses me.

Owners are ranked based on past performance specifically to ensure an even distribution of quality across the 4 versions of each league (or at least to make a best effort at it -- the formula isn't perfect). This is in service of the goal of the tournament, which is to crown the best owner that year as the champion.

You're secret formula is skewing the draw. I can't be more plain than that.

I'm happy to personally refund the cost of your GC if you feel scammed.

I will say though, this approach has been public for 15 years -- I would encourage you to think critically about your own viewpoint and whether in truth you've uncovered something secret, or if you are misconstruing something.

Ticket submitted which I assume will be dismissed.

Posted by justinlee_24 on 8/13/2019 10:36:00 PM (view original):

Posted by hurst47 on 8/13/2019 9:54:00 PM (view original):
* The leagues will not be determined randomly, but the divisions within each league will be. Once the 96 owners have purchased the $15 GC, then I will use a complex formula, originally developed by schwarze and updated by ozomatli, to rank every entrant and use this ranking for the league alignments for Round 1. This will essentially distribute the higher-ranking owners into different leagues.

This is what I'm saying. The "complex formula" to distribute the high ranked owners into different leagues is what's skewing the draw. It is the definition of skewing the draw. Randomization would say that it would be possible for the top four ranked owners to be in the same division. This process makes that impossible. How can you call the draw fair in that light? This is at best a flawed process and at worst a scam.

You forgot to mention that the lower-ranked owners are also distributed into different leagues.

Here are the facts:

Every league has a certain number of high ranked and lower ranked owners.
All the divisions seem to have relatively the same average strength.
The divisions themselves within a league are generated randomly by Whatifsports.

It is virtually impossible for the "complex formula" to distribute high ranked owners into different leagues to skew the draw, because every league has a high ranked owner (or two). It is simple mathematics that an owner like Brianjw is likely to get an "easier" division when the measurement in question excludes his own owner ranking, and on top of that he got lucky. At no point does this have anything to do with League Assignments, and everything to do with luck of the draw.

In order for the "complex formula" to skew the draw, some leagues would have to have highly ranked owners and other leagues would have to have none. For example, a league has 3 or 4 top ranked owners and everyone else is in the bottom 24, while another league has no top owners but is filled with people in the 20-50 range.

That would be more random. Artificially separating the higher ranked owners away from each other is the skew.