Posted by footballmm11 on 9/6/2023 3:42:00 PM (view original):
Posted by footballmm11 on 8/14/2023 7:29:00 PM (view original):
TEAM COMMENTS
League 4, Pick 1 (#3 overall)
2020-21 Dodgers
FA: 2020 Juan Soto + 2020 Shane Bieber
My phase 4 teams, especially my top teams, faltered a bit down the stretch but I was able to hang on to two Top 8 picks. I had the recent Dodger seasons as the best options both overall and relative to league. Funny enough, the teams on the exact other end of the timeline graded out well too, both 1901-02 and 02-03 PIT. Turns out both of those were the top 2 picks. Had one of those teams been there (especiall 01-02 PIT), I may have taken them due to the dropoff in Lg1, but with them gone, I comfortably took the best of the trio of Dodgers options with 2020-21.
There are two teams in this year-group, but the Rays literally do not have enough pitching to be a viable option. Not that it matters too much as there are multiple similar options for both FA hitters and pitchers. The main draw for this team is the pitching. Heck, I had to leave over 150 innings of *sub-2.00 ERC#* on the cutting room floor, but was able to squeeze in plenty of other ridiculous pitching, plus add Shane Bieber. The weak spot in this pitching staff is Julio Urias and his 2.46 ERC#. Every other pitcher rostered is at 2.11 or better. This rated out as the best pitching option of any team in any of the 4 leagues.
The hitting isn't too bad either. Since I used all 13 pitching spots, that left 12 hitters. Trea Turner, Seager, and Betts are elite options but there's plenty of depth here. 2020 Chris Taylor is probably the worst player but he's got 578 PA and can play multiple positions. I almost added Freddie Freeman, which would have been fitting given he joined the Dodgers shortly hereafter, but instead went with Juan Soto and his ridiculous 1.169 OPS#.
FREE AGENTS:
The Dodgers have lots of multi-position versatility in this timeframe so there's not a need thats too pressing, especially with the DH spot. Freddie Freeman was an intriguing option but Soto's 2020 is so good that even with just 529 PA, he was the best choice. Fun fact: Soto's 529 PA were the lowest for any selected free agent hitter (next lowest: 1995 Mike Piazza, 535 PA). On the pitching side, there are a few similar options but Bieber has the most innings at 209. I did look at deGrom and Devin Williams here, but this team needed the extra innings that Bieber provides.
OUTLOOK: 100 wins
This team is probably not as good as it's projection, just because the projection is just so so high. But they should be really good.
League 4, Pick 2 (#6 overall)
2021-22 Dodgers
FA: 2022 Aaron Judge + 2021 Jacob deGrom
A couple of League 2 Yankees teams went 4th and 5th. Am I missing something on these Dodgers teams? Schwarze did note that he had the 2020-21 version as the best in League 4 but just doesn't like modern teams. Anyway, I'm faced with the next-best Dodgers version (I have 2021-22 over 2019-20 by a bit) or my top option elsewhere, the 1927-28 Yankees. Schwarze had already taken the 1926-27 Yankees, who I had rated highly, but I actually had 27-28 as the top option in Lg2. The worry was that there are 4 available 1927-28 teams and just one Hornsby, who this team really needs. Now, interestingly, the 2nd-best 27-28 option, the Giants, has a Hornsby themselves already so can't clone him. That leaves two other 27-28 options (STL and PHA) both of whom I have below the projected cut line. That said, the risk of someone taking them is too great, especially with such a great option available elsewhere. The final straw for me was the tournament structure. My next 3 picks will be 3rd, 4th, and 5th-round picks. I might get the next pick in League 2 and get the Yankees anyway. However, I likely will pick no higher than 7th in League 4 given I've already picked there. So this is my only chance to double up on the Dodgers. (Alas, pedrocerrano takes the 27-28 Yankees with the final Top 8 pick.)
Anyway, back to these Dodgers. There are a lot of similarities to the 20-21 version but the pitching and hitting are both a touch worse. However, the free agents, especially 2022 Judge are better. While the pitching is a bit worse, it's still the 2nd-best of any team and there is enough of it that I can afford the 92 IP deGrom season with a 0.77 ERC#. On the hitting side, now I get to add Freeman's 2022 year, though I get a worse Bellinger. With Judge though, there will be plenty of offense.
FREE AGENTS:
As I mentioned, Judge and deGrom were the choices. Funny that with the other Dodgers, I considered Freeman as a FA and now with this version you get him on your team! Another fun fact: deGrom's 92 innings are the fewest of any selected FA pitcher (next lowest: 1961 Dick Donovan, 170 IP). I couldn't afford to roster him with the 20-21 version, but this version of the Dodgers has a few more pitchers with high innings totals so I could accommodate deGrom this time.
OUTLOOK: 95 wins
Not quite as good as their 20-21 counterparts and the AL is a bit tougher than the NL, but still have high hopes here.
League 1, Pick 3
1910-11 Athletics
FA: 1911 Ty Cobb + 1910 Ed Walsh
With the PIT teams gone, the rest of the League 1 options are tough to decipher. Except for a good 1914 BOS team, all the teams at the top have multiple options competing for FAs. That's especially important in the early years where you might get a huge 400-inning Walter Johnson or $20m Cobb. Without the ability to lock in a top set of FAs, I instead just went for the best team and that was the 10-11 A's. Excluding FAs, I had them as the 2nd-best team in League 1 after the 02-03 Pirates (however, given better FA options, I had 01-02 Pirates at the top overall). There are lots of A's teams in this era (every year-group from 1909-10 to 1913-14 is available). This one rated the best because while they all have good offenses, this is the last combo that has 550 innings from Bender and Coombs atop the rotation.
The later A's teams are slightly better hitting but much worse pitching so the main competition here was the 1909-10 A's. The pitching is almost identical, the hitting is a bit worse, but there is the possibility for better FAs. 1909-10 has 3 options, and the Cubs will surely get picked, but the Giants are a question. That's important because there's a dropoff after the top 2 hitters and pitchers in 1909-10 free agents. Even with the 2nd pick of free agents it was close and so the uncertainty pushed me to go safer with the 1910-11 version.
FREE AGENTS:
With one of my other Lg1 picks, I went with another 1910-11 team, the Giants, while the third team (Cubs) went undrafted. I decided to stack my better team (this one) and give them the 1911 Ty Cobb and 1910 Ed Walsh. The weakest spot on the A's is 1B but with 3 other strong OFs, we'll just play one of them at 1B to accommodate Cobb in the OF. Walsh is one of the best FA pitchers in this entire round, at least among those not named Walter Johnson.
OUTLOOK: 92 wins
This team ended up #1 in my ratings at the end, thanks to the gift of 1911 Cobb (from myself). However, this is a tough division and I'm always hesitant about my early-century teams as it's not my specialty.
League 2, Pick 4
NYY 1921-22
FA: 1922 Rogers Hornsby + 1921 Red Faber
As I mentioned earlier, pedrocerrano took the 27-28 Yankees that I were hoping would make it here. But I did end up with the 4th pick in this league, which is the first pick up after the Top 8 as 3 teams were picked here. The 1921-22 Yankees stood out at the top. They have a huge Ruth season and unlike 27-28, you're guaranteed a Hornsby to fill the void at 2B perfectly. There is one other 1921-22 option (the Giants), but even if they get picked there are TWO Hornsby FA options. 1922 is certainly better but 1921 Hornsby is a fine consolation prize. The rest of the offense after that is not vintage Yankees, but they're solid enough.
The pitching is...well, the best thing about the pitching is the hitting. The Yankees had some great-hitting pitchers in the early 20s as 3 or 4 of their starting pitchers can hit pretty well. They'll need it as Carl Mays' 2.79 ERC# is the only one under 3.00. And the free agent pitchers are not great...but a couple of them can hit!
FREE AGENTS:
Had the 21-22 Giants been picked, I still could have gone with 21 Hornsby but getting the even better 22 version was a nice gift. He fits perfectly at 2B into the weakest spot in the Yankees lineup. The pitching options weren't as strong, but Red Faber's 2.42 ERC# and 348 innings made him the pretty easy choice.
OUTLOOK: 90 wins
I'm in a tough division with two others I project as top 10 in Lg2. Still, unlike some other Yankees teams, I think this one has a enough pitching to let the hitting do it's job.
League 1, Pick 7
1909-10 Cubs
FA: 1910 Nap Lajoie + 1910 Ed Walsh
Of course redcped took the 09-10 A's right after me, but that opened up the 09-10 Cubs as a great option, since even if the Giants get picked, you still get a top FA hitter and pitcher. I had the Cubs just a hair behind the A's--better pitching and worse hitting for the Cubbies--but the Cubs get to lock in 1910 Lajoie or 1910 Cobb as a hitter and get almost 400 amazing innings from either 1910 Ed Walsh or 1910 Walter Johnson. I had to sweat out a couple picks, but the Cubs made it through and I snatched them up. Interestingly, with the better free agents locked in, I have these Cubs rated slightly ahead of my earlier pick, the 1910-11 A's.
As for the team itself, the pitching is...wow. Mordecai Brown, Orval Overall, and either Walsh or Johnson will pitch over 1000 innings. The bullpen will be a bit worse than them but not much with multiple options in the 2.50 ERC# range. The offense won't be as good but Tinker to Evers to...well, probably not Chance...and company will be solid. Solly Hofman and either Lajoie or Cobb will lead the charge and the defense should be pretty good.
FREE AGENTS:
1909-10 has a top two options on both the hitting side and pitching side, so with the 2nd out of 3 possible picks, this was pretty safe. But it got a little better when the 09-10 Giants weren't picked. I went with Lajoie over Cobb as he can play 1B and 2B. The Cubs don't have much at 1B (not Frank Chance's best years) and while Joe Tinker is solid he has fewer than 600 PA and no great backup, so Lajoie can slide over when needed. I went with Walsh over Johnson as Walsh's pitching quality is better, though Johnson is a better hitter.
OUTLOOK: 87 wins
I think the pitching is going to be really good, but the offense will be a question mark.
League 3, Pick 5
1948-49 Red Sox
FA: 1948 Stan Musial + 1948 Harry Brecheen
My latest "first" pick in a league was in League 3. My top two options were scooped up right before me as barracuda3 took 1961-62 Yankees and pedrocerrano took 1953-54 Indians. No options stood out clearly from the pack. There were two 1957 options (Yankees and Braves), but whoever goes first there has a bit of a dropoff in free agents. The 53-54 Dodgers were interesting but they diminish greatly in value if the 53-54 Yankees are picked as you lose out on Mays and Spahn as FAs. The 48-49 Red Sox were similar in value but less reliant on the FA quality and I'm more confident that the 48-49 Yankees won't get picked (giving me first choice on FAs) than that the 53-54 Yankees won't.
This Red Sox team has poor pitching. Mel Parnell gives a nice 311 innings atop the rotation and will be joined by either 1948 or 1949 Bob Lemon's 300ish innings, but the rest of the staff will just be trying to eat innings. The offense is where this team shines, led by Ted Williams and (hopefully) Stan Musial. But there are 4 other very good Sox hitters here in Dom Dimaggio plus the infield of Stephens, Doerr, and Pesky. League 3 is the weakest league, but I don't love this team. Will be interesting to see how they fare in what should be a pretty balanced playing field I think.
FREE AGENTS:
As expected, the other 48-49 option was not selected. Musial was an easy choice, slotting in to the Red Sox's weakest spot in the outfield. I wrote earlier that I'd take one of the Bob Lemon seasons but after much consternation and internal debate, I instead chose Harry Brecheen. Lemon has about 50-60 more innings and is a very good hitter, but Brecheen's 2.01 ERC# is far superior, plus he doesn't walk guys or give up HRs which should play well. That does mean another 50 innings from what is not a great Sox staff, but hoping the tradeoff is worth it.
OUTLOOK: 85 wins
Certainly the least confident I am among my high picks. The opposite of my 09-10 Cubbies, this team will score but no idea if we can prevent any runs.
League 2, Pick 8
NYY 1936-37
FA: 1937 Charlie Gehringer + 1937 Jim Turner
League 2 is just what good-hitting, bad-pitching Yankees team you want and that was especially true after a couple of 1940s Cardinals teams were picked back-to-back at picks 5 and 6. Toysboys picked the 37-38 Yankees right head of me and this team is quite similar. I actually like this 36-37 team slightly better. Gehringer fits well as a free agent, replacing Lazzeri at 2B who was the weakest starter. He'll join Dimaggio and Gehrig atop the lineup for a potent top 3.
Again, the pitching is pretty poor. Lefty Gomez is very good and Ruffing is solid, but the rest of the staff is pretty mediocre. Whichever FA pitcher gets added will certainly help but will probably be the 3rd starter. There is one other 36-37 option, the Giants, but I don't expect them to get picked. Doesn't matter much here, though, given the free agent options don't fall off much.
FREE AGENTS:
These Yankees don't necessarily need a 2B, but Lazzeri is the weakest spot. If there was a stud OF, I would have taken them, but Gehringer was every bit as good as Joe Medwick and Hank Greenberg. The question became which Gehringer to take as both 36 and 37 are good years for him. I went with 1937 for the quality--fewer PA, but better OBP and better fielding. Turner isn't the most exciting free agent pitcher, but with 274 innings at 2.44 ERC# he will be just fine. I could have gotten a little more quality with someon like 1937 Monty Stratton, but the extra 100 innings from Turner were more needed with the poor back-end of this staff.
OUTLOOK: 88 wins
This team feels very solid. It will be interesting as I'm in the same division as two similar-era teams with 37-38 and 42-43 Yankees teams.
League 3, Pick 12
1957-58 Braves
FA: 1957 Ted Williams + 1957 Frank Sullivan
I didn't have a particular team in mind leading up to this pick. Once toysboys took 1957-58 Yankees at pick 9, that made the 57-58 Braves more attractive as you lock in Ted Williams. I also looked at the 1953-54 Dodgers and the 1956-57 Yankees. Both had big free agent uncertainty. For the 56-57 Yankees, again Ted Williams as the hitting prize but also Herb Score as the clear top pitcher, but you have to sweat out the Braves as the other option and they look likely to get picked. For the 53-54 Dodgers, there are 3 teams in the year-group with CLE already picked, so you're waiting on the 53-54 Yanks. Again a clear top choice at both hitter (Mays) and pitcher (Spahn).
I decided to pass on the uncertainty since the Braves were very close in quality and had the certainty of getting Williams, although the pitching free agents leave a lot to be desired. I really like this team. You get some stars with Henry Aaron, Eddie Mathews, Schoendiest, and Spahn. But you also get some really good part-timers--1957 Bob Hazle is always fun, but also Wes Covington and Bill Bruton give some nice half-seasons. The pitching staff gets some love too with 3 very good relievers with ERC# under 2.50. Should be a fun team to manage.
POST-DRAFT UPDATE: As it turns out, the 56-57 Braves did NOT get picked. I ended up with the 56-57 Yankees rated as the #2 overall team in this league. Congrats to urband who nabbed them with the 2nd-TO-LAST pick of the draft. The 53-54 Yankees ALSO did not get picked, so schwarze got my #4-rated team in League 3 with the 19th pick. Nice work, fellas!
FREE AGENTS:
Teddy Ballgame was an easy choice. My main pitching options were Sullivan, Hoyt Wilhelm, or Jim Bunning. Bunning had more innings but he's got a big HR problem and a worse ERC#, and he only gives you 38 more innings than Sullivan. Wilhlem has a better ERC# at 2.16 vs 2.48 for Sullivan but over 100 fewer innings. Had the Braves had a better staff, I may have opted for Wilhelm, but those extra 100 innings would have gone to some mediocre pitchers. Plus, the Braves have the 3 good relievers I mentioned earlier.
OUTLOOK: 84 wins
I want to like this team but I think it's just because they're (a) not the Yankees, (b) they're balanced, and (c) they fit well together. But the division is touch with both schwarze's 60-61 Yankees and ronthegenius's 52-53 Indians rating similarly. Will hope to just advance this team.
League 1, Pick 18
1910-11 Giants
FA: 1910 Ty Cobb + 1910 Walter Johnson
This pick basically came down to back-to-back Giants teams, either 10-11 or 11-12. And both involved guessing what would happen with the final 6 picks. The 1911-12 year group is super interesting--by my calculations, there is the biggest gap between picking first in the FA draft and last. First pick gets about $40m in free agents (!) between 1911 Cobb and 1912 Walter Johnson. The third-best FAs--let's just go by salary, so 1911 Joe Jackson ($11m) and 1911 Joe Wood ($11m)--are about half that value. The problem is, until somebody else goes first, you can't control it. I felt once somebody did go, then all 3 teams would go. Unless, you're picking 23rd or 24th, there's not much you can do. So that was my worry with the 1911-12 Giants and it turns out I was right--the three 11-12 teams went 20th, 23rd, and 24th.
I had the 11-12 Giants better when ignoring free agents but I decided to play it safer with the 1910-11 version and was still hoping that the 3rd team, the Cubs, would not get taken. In this case, I also had the first 10-11 team, the A's. The free agent discrepancy isn't quite as big, mostly because 1912 Johnson is out of the picture, but it's still large with essentially the same hitters involved and then 1910 Ed Walsh and 1910 Walter Johnson as a clear top two before a drop off to 1910 Russ Ford. By virtue of having the A's locked in, I had the benefit of the option to punt a free agent to my A's if I wanted to, as well.
FREE AGENTS:
As touched on in my 1910-11 A's write-up, I took a hit on this team to improve the A's. That mostly meant taking the lesser Cobb, though he's still very helpful to this squad. I also considered 1911 Joe Jackson and 1910 Nap Lajoie but I preferred Cobb's A-range to man CF. 1910 isn't the best season of Walter Johnson's career, but almost 400 innings with a sub-2.00 ERC# plus strong hitting will be very welcome.
OUTLOOK: 74 wins
My worst team, although some of that is my doing. They also ended up in a brutal division, where I project all 3 other teams better than mine. Will need some luck to get this team through.
League 4, Pick 14
2003-04 Braves
FA: 2003 Barry Bonds + 2004 Johan Santana
I'll admit, the smart pick is to take the team that schwarze took immediately after this, the 2002-03 Braves. The two teams are very similar, of course, with the 02-03 version giving you better pitching, mostly thanks to a good Kevin Millwood season in 2002. The 03-04 version does have JD Drew and a little better offense, but not enough to offset the pitching. No, the reason I went with 03-04 was just to take a shot that nobody took the 03-04 Yankees and I could somehow add 04 Bonds and 04 Randy Johnson, making this team a juggernaut. I knew it was a longshot, but what the heck. Well, that was shortlived as one pick after schwarze took the team I should have taken, toysboys immediately snatched up the 03-04 Yankees.
Still, this team will be fun. The offense should be among the best in the league. Excluding free agents, I rate this offense the best in the league, but schwarze's 2004-05 Cardinals get to add 2004 Bonds to the 2nd-best non-FA offense, so they'll be hard to beat. Sheffield, Drew, and Javy Lopez have monster years, as does Marcus Giles at 2B and I opted for the better-hitting, terrible-fielding 2003 Chipper Jones to be the DH.
FREE AGENTS:
This team is set everywhere but 1B and the 03-04 free agents are loaded with 1B, led by a pair of Pujols and a pair of Helton seasons. Funny enough, I had an error in my spreadsheet that was omitting 2003 Bonds from showing up as a FA option, but ultimately I couldn't pass him up, despite the fact that he (or one of Drew or Sheffield) will have to play out-of-position at 1B.
I also struggled with which FA pitcher to take. I really wanted to take 2003 Gagne, but Johan Santana is very good and going with Gagne meant 150 or so fewer innings that likely had to go to Paul Byrd. We'll take 83 worse innings for 150 WAY better innings, despite how fun it would be to have Gagne and Smoltz at the back of the pen.
OUTLOOK: 81 wins
This team will rake. And it will be fun. But we may lose lots of 10-7 or 12-9 games. Also both 2015-16 Cubs and 2017-18 Astros are really strong teams in my division. Feels like a bubble team that just misses advancement.
(Approximately) one-third mark progress report:
1909-10 Cubs + Lajoie + Walsh 29-30
I projected this team for wins in the mid-to-high 80s and we're a bit off that mark, though our xWin% is an 86-win pace and we're just 7-12 in 1-run games. As expected, the pitching is great (3rd in the league) and the offense is not. Probably a combination of underperformance and bad luck, but I'm gonna guess this team finishes a touch above .500.
Grade: C
1910-11 Athletics + Cobb + Walsh 30-29
Had way bigger hopes for this team. I predicted low-90s wins and while we've crept above .500 after a tough start, this is not what I had in mind. Both the pitching and the offense are hovering right around average. Interestingly, while our xWin% is above .500, we've actually been quite luck in 1-run games (11-5). I don't know what to make of this team. Outside of Cobb and Collins, the hitting has been disappointing. On the pitching side, Walsh and Bender have been fine but Jack Coombs is sporting an unseemly 5.68 ERA. We'll see if things turn around or if this continues to be the biggest disappointment of my teams.
Grade: D+
1910-11 Giants + Cobb + Johnson 30-29
I had this team as my worst of all 10 teams and even sacrificed FA quality to improve my 10-11 A's team. Instead, this team has performed just as well if not better. Currently 2nd in the league in runs scored, that's enough to overcome a below-average pitching staff. We'll see if they can keep it up but so far this team has been a pleasant surprise.
Grade: B+
1921-22 Yankees + Hornsby + Faber 33-26
The offense has been very good (top 5) as expected but the pitching has been better than I hoped so far, actually a few runs better than average. Ruth and Hornsby have been very good up top and the rest of the lineup's depth has played well, save for a very bad start from Aaron Ward. Still, I can't bring myself to replace him with Frank Baker yet, given both have similar hitting numbers and Ward is the far superior fielder. Mays has not been good but Faber, Bush and the bullpen have been good enough for now.
Grade: B
1936-37 Yankees + Gehringer + Turner 28-31
Record-wise, this team has been a disappointment, but I'm optimistic here. Both our xWin% (.525) and record in 1-run games (1-6) portend better things in the future. The xWin% is best in the division, despite currently sitting in last place. The offense has come alive more of late and the pitching has been good enough, especially Gomez and Turner atop the rotation.
Grade: B-
1948-49 Red Sox + Musial + Brecheen 22-37
My worst pick, easily. I knew the pitching would be bad, but we are 50+ runs worse than the next-worst pitching team and almost 100 worse than the 3rd-worst. The offense is 2nd-best, but it's just not close to enough to offset the pitching. schwarze's 53-54 Dodgers graded out very similarly to this team on offense and defense going in, but he's +19 on runs scored and nearly 100 runs better pitching. I don't have much hope for this team to turn it around, at least not in a significant enough way to advance.
Grade: F
1957-58 Braves + Williams + Sullivan 35-24
Love this team. Just solid. Above average offense, above average defense. Depth among the lineup and the staff. I still think the hitting has room to improve--Hank Aaron is slashing just .273/.314/.494 and Eddie Matthews is at .202/.277/.391. We're outperforming the xWin% a bit, but the 1-run record is even and hopefully the lineup can improve to offset some regression.
Grade: A
2003-04 Braves + Bonds + Santana 27-32
I knew I should have taken the 02-03 Braves and they are +5 wins already over this team. The offense should be the best in the league and yet they're hovering right around average. Luckily, the pitching hasn't been terrible, just below-average, which is allowing the team to hang around a bit. Turner Field is a bit of a pitchers park, but doesn't appear to be the main culprit here. The offense needs to REALLY pick things up, or this team is toast.
Grade: C-
2020-21 Dodgers + Soto + Bieber 46-13
Juggernaut. #1 in runs scored, by a wide margin, is a bit of a surprise. #2 in preventing runs, behind only my other Dodgers team. And 11-2 in 1-run games and 6-0 in extras to boot! Amazingly, Bieber has been our worst or 2nd-worst pitcher. But there's nothing to complain about. This team has been everything I hoped and more. Obviously a strong contender to get the #1 overall pick for Round 6.
Grade: A+
2021-22 Dodgers + Judge + deGrom 33-26
The pitching, as mentioned, has been great, #1 in the league and that's with deGrom sporting a pedestrian 3.66 ERA (despite a 0.97 WHIP and 12:2 K:BB ratio). The offense has been just average and unlike my other Dodgers team, this one is underperforming the xWin% (although not due to 1-run games, so who knows). At .635, the xWin% is the 2nd-best in all 4 leagues (behind the team above), so this team should be just fine, if not in contention for a Top 4 pick next round.
Grade: A-
Progress report at the halfway mark:
1909-10 Cubs + Lajoie + Walsh
Preseason Proj: 87 wins
59-game Report: C 29-30
Halfway Report: B- 39-42
This team, as with all my Lg1 teams, continues to hover right around .500. I still have hope for them as both the xWin% (.523) and 1-run record (10-16) point to a slightly better team. This team is playing exactly as expected–2nd-to-last in scoring but 1st in run prevention. I’m still going to guess this team sneaks into the next round, at like 82-80 or something.
1910-11 Athletics + Cobb + Walsh
Preseason Proj: 92 wins
59-game Report: D+ 30-29
Halfway Report: C- 42-39
This team has stabilized a bit, but still just slightly above .500. Oddly, the run differential points upward, but the 18-10 1-run record points to regression. One other benefit towards advancement is that it’s possible to win the division with a .500 or below record, as 2nd place is currently below .500. The biggest disappointment so far is probably the offense, if that picks up a little bit, hopefully can get this team comfortably into the mid-80s in wins to advance, but they’re not as good as I hoped before the season.
1910-11 Giants + Cobb + Johnson
Preseason Proj: 74 wins
59-game Report: B+ 30-29
Halfway Report: B+ 41-40
Still pleasantly surprised this team is hanging around .500, mostly thanks to the #2 run scoring offense. However, the OPS is a bit lower, so we may see a dropoff there. The 1-run record is neutral and the xWin% is actually slightly above .500, so no big red flags. The division is tough (currently last place despite the above .500 record), so playoffs are likely off the table but advancement is still a hope.
1921-22 Yankees + Hornsby + Faber
Preseason Proj: 90 wins
59-game Report: B 33-26
Halfway Report: A- 48-33
This team has performed even better than my 90-win projection. I am worried the offense–currently #1–will come back to earth as the OPS is not quite as high and my preseason projection was more above-average than great. The pitching has been much better than expected though, hovering around league average where I projected bottom 5. Free agent Red Faber has been the biggest driver there, leading the league in innings and sporting a 4.23 ERA that’s much better than the 5.02 league average.
1936-37 Yankees + Gehringer + Turner
Preseason Proj: 88 wins
59-game Report: B- 28-31
Halfway Report: B 40-41
I mentioned last time that the arrows were pointing up for this team and they have finally gotten back to .500 though they just dropped back below, going 12-10 since my last update. Those arrows are still pointing up–.544 xWin% and 3-8 1-run record. It was this Yankees team, not my 21-22 version, that I expected to contend for the league lead in runs scored, but still checking in top 5. Pitching has been fine, as expected, right around average. Hopefully that’s good enough to get this team over the hump in the 2nd half.
1948-49 Red Sox + Musial + Brecheen
Preseason Proj: 85 wins
59-game Report: F 22-37
Halfway Report: F+ 35-46
This team almost immediately ripped off a 7-game winning streak after my last update, but has since come back to earth at 6-9 since. I upgraded the grade to an F+, but this is still a very bad outcome for the 5th pick in the Lg3 draft. I knew the team would be all offense and no pitching–and they are! Currently #1 in runs scored by almost 20 runs. The problem is we are last in runs allowed, and by more than 20 runs. Brecheen has been great as our FA pitcher with a 3.56 ERA in 126 innings. Mel Parnell has been okay (4.66 ERA), and the rest of the staff has been a disaster. I rated schwarze’s 53-54 Dodgers very similarly–actually better at hitting and just slightly better pitching. But they have allowed 68 fewer runs and scored just 18 fewer (Fenway likely has something to do with that). Advancement is a pipe dream.
1957-58 Braves + Williams + Sullivan
Preseason Proj: 84 wins
59-game Report: A 35-24
Halfway Report: A 47-34
League 3 was a weird one and despite picking this team 7 picks later, I liked them just as much. The benefit was knowing the other 57-58 team had already been picked, so being able to lock in Williams and Sullivan as free agents. I had this team as 14th in pitching, but they’ve outperformed that, currently 7th-best. The offense, projected to be around 6th-best, has been a notch below that but still plenty good enough. Maybe we won’t win in the mid-90s pace we’re on (xWin% is .548, an 89-win pace), but this team should comfortably come in around the high 80s/low 90s in wins. Can we hold off schwarze’s 60-61 Yankees in the division? That’s a tougher question.
2003-04 Braves + Bonds + Santana
Preseason Proj: 81 wins
59-game Report: C- 27-32
Halfway Report: C 39-42
In an effort to deflect a pedrocerrano question about my 20-21 Dodgers, I mentioned how schwarze’s overlap players between this team and his 2002-03 Braves were outperforming mine. That was somewhat true, although this team is just not as good, and the pitching is the main reason between the two. I had this team graded last in pitching by a long margin and the offense only barely #1. No shock that this team and my 48-49 Red Sox are my two worst. I guess you need SOME pitching. In any case, the pitching has actually been better than dead last, it’s the offense that has sputtered and is nowhere near the top of the league. This team is just barely hanging around, but unless the offensive spark is found, we’re toast.
2020-21 Dodgers + Soto + Bieber
Preseason Proj: 100 wins
59-game Report: A+ 46-13
Halfway Report: A+ 57-24
Okay, didn’t expect to win ¾ of our games all season. This team is just 11-10 since the last update. But we’re still #1 in both hitting and pitching and have the #1 overall record. The xWin% backs that up. I don’t expect 115-ish wins, but I think this team gets me the #1 pick in Round 6.
2021-22 Dodgers + Judge + deGrom
Preseason Proj: 95 wins
59-game Report: A- 33-26
Halfway Report: B+ 42-39
This version of my Dodgers team just hasn’t hit as well. I only have 3 duplicate players from 2021 (Trea Turner, Muncy, and Pollock), but the performance has been stark. Those 3 on this team have just a .696 average OPS, compared to .847 on my 20-21 version! Despite different seasons, I’m also getting much worse performances from Justin Turner, Will Smith, and Mookie Betts. And Aaron Judge, while good, hasn’t been as good as Soto. I’m guessing this team’s hitting goes up and the other one comes down, so I’m not too worried here. The .578 xWin% and preseason expectations should be enough to build off of what’s still a comfortable winning record.
OVERALL PREDICTION
I’m going to guess I get 6 teams through. My two all-offense, no-pitching teams are mostly done, so that’s 2 out of 10 out. I think both my Dodgers teams plus my 21-22 Yankees and 57-58 Braves are in. My League 1 teams are all just dancing around .500 and feels like I should get 1.5 of them in. That leaves my 36-37 Yankees, who also feel like a toss-up, so I’ll say I get 2 of those 4 teams in.