Based on the final rankings, my eight teams are ranked..... 5, 7, 22, 23, 25, 48, 70, 74
Instead, when use Expect Win%, my teams are ranked....... 5, 8, 9, 24, 32, 38, 41, 70
It's not the same order - re-arranging to match the top line.. 5, 9, 24, 38, 8, 41, 32, 70
In other words, the 8th best team overall (based on Exp Win%) is only ranked 25th overall (based on record) and since that team is my fifth best team (Nationals), they do not advance. Also, based on Exp Win%, I have the 32nd best team (Brewers), but due to poor 1-run game luck, they finished 70th overall.