Bagwell Your Rod, Putz, or Feller
This version had way fewer potential traps or reason to worry about certain negative outcomes, like getting stuck at a position or having your cap impacted by events outside your control. With no salary cap, the only reason to limit what you spend is draft order. To a certain degree it does help to pick sooner (especially early on), but all in all I’d rather get a better player because the talent pool is finite. If you go cheap somewhere early, especially at a deep position like RP, you wind up without gaining much at that spot and you miss out on better expensive players, too.
I followed that strategy throughout, going for impact over any other consideration. I never came close to running out of options at any position. Without having to save any franchises for R25, I felt free to choose by quality above all. I wound up just under $135M even while drafting between 9-16 much of the time. Aside from my R1 pick that was somewhat aimed at drafting in the top half of R2, I never made a pick based on where it would land me the next round.
I will almost always start a draft like this with a pitcher or two because the quality at the top is essential to have, I believe. As this draft unfolded, though, I started to see less gap between the possible starting pitchers if I turned my attention to the offense. I’ve fielded lineups with average hitters in this league and found them lacking, so I decided not to hold back when difference-makers were available. I wound up with the most salary, so we’ll see if it shows up on the field and whether the big-spender division proves the most dangerous.
Here’s round by round as it unfolded:
Round 1, Pick 16: 2016 Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, P4
Sure, I would have liked to get more innings at this spot, but the margin from Kershaw (1.20 ERC#) down to the next best pitcher in this group is sizable. I’ll just have to draft heavy innings from my next couple SP to cover the rotation.
Round 2, Pick 8: 1985 Dwight Gooden, Mets, P2
By this point, there had already been 13 P1 or P2 selected, and I wanted to ensure at least one big arm to anchor the staff. I got 277 innings here, and I can be pretty sure I’ll have another in that range coming from P1 later. So it’s pretty likely I can run a 4-man rotation and use the versatility of P5 options later to fill where I need it most.
Round 3, Pick 14: 1994 Jeff Bagwell, Astros, 1B
I usually lean toward an up-the-middle player first to lock down the defense at a key spot while also getting a strong bat. And I was well aware of the depth at 1B. But when I looked at each position, I kept coming back to Bagwell and his ridiculously good offensive production. No one in the draft slugs better. It’s going to cost me draft position, but I’ve got the start of a strong lineup that I think I’m really going to need.
Round 4, Pick 19: 2020 Juan Soto, Nationals/Expos, OF3
If I’d felt there was a P1 or P3 who was much better than anyone else left, I might have grabbed one. But I wanted to keep filling out the core of a loaded lineup while some of the best bats were out there. With a 1.169 OPS#, Soto was the best hitter on the board. His 529 PA should be manageable with a bench player to start against many LHP. Sure, I haven’t filled any key defensive positions yet, but I have two of the best bats period.
Round 5, Pick 14: 1937 Joe DiMaggio, Yankees, OF1
I sweated out this slow round hoping to fill either my CF or SS spot. There were only 20 starting outfielders in the pool with A- or better range, and I nominated 3 of them from the Royals (you’re welcome). The vast majority were at the bottom of each OF group in OPS, however, with one notable exception. I was fairly surprised folks were grabbing relievers instead of locking down stud lineup pieces, but you do you, I guess. This gives me three of the 13 .650+ SLG# hitters in the draft now, and I don’t even mind that it’s going to send me to the bottom of the draft order.
Round 6, Pick 21: 1975 Rod Carew, Twins, 2B
I’ll say I usually prefer stronger defense than Carew’s here, but this is also one of the last places I can ensure grabbing a lefty bat. I figure C and 3B are very likely going to be righties, and there’s not a lot of options left in OF2 either. If I wait on a SS and grab a good glove switch hitter, at least that will be some bit of balance. That said, the biggest argument for Carew is a .360+ average and decent speed with likelihood he can hit leadoff for me. I’ve got the top half of my lineup set now with a slash of .356/.432/.608, and I should be able to get production from OF2 and 3B at least.
Round 7, Pick 16: 2020 Brad Keller, Royals, P5
I was definitely going to fill another hitter spot this round … until I decided I wasn’t as in love with Eddie Mathews at 3B as I thought and didn’t see urgency at any of the spots I needed. Meanwhile, knowing I’ll be getting second-tier P1 and P3 made me realize that using P5 for a quality SP would be a strong move. Keller was one of the last ones left with a sub-2 ERC# and adds 148 quality innings to my rotation (I think I somehow overlooked Howie Pollet, taken a few picks later, with slightly fewer innings). The only downside here is I had loaded up that Royals roster with strong relievers at every spot and nice bench options, all of which I have to forego now.
Round 8, Pick 14: 2019 Christian Yelich, Brewers, OF2
I would have lost a sizable bet if you would have asked me if I’d fill my outfield up in the first 8 rounds, but here we are. This was another case of sizing up the best remaining studs at my open positions and deciding where I could be happier dropping down to a lesser talent. When Josh Hamilton got taken, all the remaining top hitters in this group on my list were RH except Yelich. Having already conceded that my C and 3B are almost certainly going to be RH and give me four, I felt this was the best place to add another potent lefty bat before I ran out of options. My slash for my five lineup members is at .350/.431/.645 now.
Round 9, Pick 15: 1987 Tony Fernandez, Blue Jays, SS
Every pick is a compromise somewhere, and while I was filling other spots the runs on C and SS took stride and cleared everyone from my queue off the board … except this guy and some dude named Ozzie. Fernandez doesn’t put up quite the offensive numbers of several other guys in this group, but he does three things really well that matter a lot: he plays outstanding defense, he runs, and he hits for a solid average. Plus he’s a switch hitter. Those things are all equally true for Ozzie, but with less production. For a guy who will bat 7th or 8th, Fernandez is just fine. And he shores up a critical defensive position that I could have had to compromise if I’d waited and watched both those guys go off the board.
Round 10, Pick 18: 1939 Ted Lyons, White Sox, P3
Endless ways I could have gone here, and I considered them all. The potential run on 3B weighed heavily on me and almost forced my hand, and as I write this I’m still awaiting the fallout. It probably isn’t helping that schwarze just posted about how few 3B have been taken, in case anyone hadn’t been paying attention. Meanwhile, though, I still had two holes in my rotation and only a few owners still needed to fill these spots. As franchises and possible choices dwindled, I started looking at how many choices I could live with. At P3, I was down to Hank Aguirre, Cliff Lee and Lyons on my comfort list. Though Lyons had the fewest innings of the group and that could impact me later, his durability, low HR rate and offensive ability gave him the edge. Also, I wanted to save my Tigers in case I could still get Cabrera at 3B or Freehan at C.
Round 11, Pick 17: 2009 Mike Adams, P10, Padres
The run on 3B was painful and disastrous, and clearly I should have taken one last round before 7 more went off the board. Everyone on my list of top choices was gone once vilefileman took Cabrera the pick before me. So I had to shift at the last minute, and my only other remaining “starting” positions were P1 and C. I didn’t see anyone I felt obliged to grab there, so I sought out the best reliever who was unlikely to last much longer. Only 37 innings here, which isn’t ideal, but he’s going to be my closer. I’ll likely have to sacrifice some quality for innings elsewhere in the pen now.
Round 12, Pick 14: 1982 Doug DeCinces, 3B, Angels
If I would have jumped into the 3B fray before the big run, I would have likely taken Nolan Arenado. I’m landing DeCinces two rounds later, and honestly it’s not as big a dropoff as I initially feared. Arenado has an OPS# of .941 to Doug’s .907. Fielding is good either way, from A/A to B/A+, so at least I still get the glove I need. And with 42 doubles and 30 homers, DeCinces brings ample pop to the lineup as well.
Round 13, Pick 17: 2017 J.D. Martinez, B1, D’backs
A bit of a Bench run kicked off in this round, and I had to have a high-quality option to sub for Soto and Yelich with some regularity. Since both of them are lefties, a righty OF with 200+ PA was high on my list. Martinez really only does one thing well, and that’s hit homers. He does that exceedingly well with 29 in 275 PA, and hopefully in this league enough lefty pitchers are susceptible to give J.D. some value. I’ll still try to get at least one more good bench OF from my short list, but there’s less pressure now that I can cover the missing PA from just this pick.
Round 14, Pick 12: 2008 Grant Balfour, P9, Rays
After two rounds detouring to cover pressing areas, I returned to filling out the bullpen before all the best guys disappeared. These rounds are about half relievers or more at this point, so I hope to nab at least a couple more great arms before turning attention anywhere else. I can also start to work backwards on this draft, knowing now that no one else can take Rico Carty at C and that’s likely who I’m stuck with. Also, I’m assured to get either Bob Feller or Greg Maddux at P1, so that leaves 4 RP and 5 bench spots to fill in between. The pen is definitely the priority there.
Round 15, Pick 10: 2014 Andrew Miller, P8, Red Sox
This was a tough call between top choices at P6 (Nen, Murphy, or Cormier), P7 (Putz) and Miller. Putz is objectively a better pitcher, but I think I have more second choices who will be good enough in his group. Also, I have more options I like at P6 and far fewer people still need to fill P7 so the likelihood of Miller making it back around was much lower. Playing the odds, really. His low IP/G don’t make Miller the most useful guy in the pen, but I’m sure he will get his innings in and hopefully be an effective setup option. I’ve had great seasons and poor ones out of him in the past, so here’s hoping for the best.
Round 16, Pick 10: 2007 J.J. Putz, Mariners, P7
Color me genuinely surprised that Putz made it around to me, but playing the odds worked out well. His 1.11 ERC# is the second-best in this group, and only 1st-rounder Devin Williams has a lower WHIP# than Putz’s 0.68. His HR rate is a bit high, which no doubt scared a few people off. At this stage of the draft, though, I feel fortunate to add one of the best arms in the group. I know ERC# isn’t the only useful stat and we are talking about volatile relievers here, but so far my bullpen stacks up with 0.62, 1.29, 1.41, and 1.11 across 258 innings. Considering I didn’t take any until R11, I’m more than happy with that group.
On another note, when happyhours picked Maddux at P1, that ensured I’ll be getting Feller there. So on the one hand he’s not quite as good, but on the other he has 70 more innings and I am now guaranteed to be over 1,420 once the final RP are in place. This also means my final two picks are locked in with Feller and Carty, so I only have to map out to pick 23 now with 2 pitchers and 5 bench spots to fill. It also means my total salary is quite likely to top $135M. Feller and Carty put me at $123M already! I’m guessing I’m destined for the highest-salary division, an interesting contrast to last season when I sneaked into the lowest one and got to the WS.
Let’s see how many players are still available to me at each spot, as of the end of this round …
P6: 5
P11: 11
C2: 8
B2: 12
B3: 10
B4: 11
B5: 12
I don’t care too much which of the remaining P6 I get, nor whether my C2 is all that good or even the quality of my last couple bench spots. But I have to watch out not to get totally cornered and run out of possibilities, too. I should be able to pick and choose based on which group still has a top pick I like rather than anything resembling a desperation pick. For a while anyway.
Round 17, Pick 12: 2021 Craig Kimbrel, Cubs, P11
Well, the bullpen just got even better! We’ve added a second sub-1 ERC# arm, and at 37 innings he’s on the higher side for P11 even. The Cubs really opened up for me as an option when Maddux fell off as a P1 option and then B2 option Todd Haney went earlier this round. So I had to choose between a good backup 2B in Kaz Matsui in B2 or a reliever I really didn’t think would last another round. Matsui might, or at least someone else I can live with will.
Round 18, Pick 12: 1943 Woody Williams, Reds, B2
For the second time in the draft, the player I had set to draft went just before me and I had to settle for a second choice. I was hoping for Matsui here as my backup 2B and also for his speed. There’s nothing wrong with a .380 hitter like Williams, and he can play 2B just fine, though he has fewer PA and may be tricky to keep rested for occasionally spelling Carew. Maybe I’ll land someone else who plays 2B in one of my remaining bench spots, too.
Round 19, Pick 9: 2001 Todd Hollandsworth, Rockies, B3
So far so good in terms of piecing together a bench that can really hit. With no cap to worry about, I’m just trying to cover anyplace I need a backup with the best player possible. Hollandsworth hits a ton (1.075 OPS) and will be the primary LH pinch hitter, and with 80 speed he might get the call to run occasionally. I don’t have a great defensive OF on the bench to use as a late-inning replacement, but I’ve at least covered the needed PA with guys who can hit.
As for other spots remaining, I have 3 lousy C2 options that I don’t think anyone will be in a rush to grab. I have 2 P6 options no one else can take, so I have some franchise flexibility there. That just leaves B4 and B5 as my likely next two picks.
Round 20, Pick 9: 2019 Hunter Pence, Rangers, B4
I could have gone a couple ways here at the end as I wanted to add a good defensive OF if possible and also a backup middle infielder. The options for the latter were limited, and Pence was really the only good defender left. He’s not the hitter Turner Ward in B5 is, but I think I’ll get more value from Pence’s speed and glove since I already have lots of offense on the bench. Also, not taking Ward allows me to use my Pirates pick at P6 for long man Johnny Miljus.
Round 21, Pick 11: 1997 Matt Walbeck, Tigers, C2
Least of 3 remaining evils. Hopefully he doesn’t have to bat too much. The other two left to me (Knizner and Oates) were much worse offensively and neither had a sterling glove to recommend him either. Might as well lock down this guy now.
Round 22, Pick 9: 1936 Mark Koenig, Giants, B5
There were a few better bats available (though hardly anyone great), but his infield position options create more potential to hit for Fernandez occasionally and/or make double switches if need be. I think I have enough bench offense elsewhere to prize his flexibility.
Round 23, Pick 7: 1927 Johnny Miljus, Pirates, P6
The remaining picks were all exclusively mine at this point. Miljus was a better fit than Florida version Robb Nen at this spot because he can pitch way longer in a game, 4 IP/G. Plus 0 homers allowed. He’s by far the weakest member of the pen with a 1.93 ERC# and 1.03 WHIP#, but that’s pretty solid for a guy who likely works essentially mopup duty.
Round 24, Pick 10: 1966 Rico Carty, Braves, C
This pick was also locked in many rounds back, and though I can’t say I’m thrilled with him I think it should work out well enough. Carty isn’t going to help out defensively, but I don’t think this league is filled with great base-stealers anyway. So hopefully his .326 AVG and ability to keep the lineup turning over will prove useful in the bottom of the order. Also, with 588 PA in my pocket here, I didn’t have to worry about getting a C2 early and could just take whoever fell to me later.
Round 25, Pick 10: 1940 Bob Feller, Indians, P1
We arrived fairly early on at a stage where I would be assured either Feller or 92 Maddux in this spot, after Spahn went off the table as a third option. Maddux is statistically a bit better, but he also threw 70 fewer innings. I was happy to keep both possibilities going while waiting to see how my bullpen would shape up. Ultimately, Maddux got picked and took away the question, but in the end I think I likely would have taken Feller for the innings anyway. He gives me 1,438 instead of 1,369, and that could be the difference between a fatigue struggle and no real issues. I just hope he keeps his walks down and whiffs a lot of modern hitters.
Ballpark: Wrigley Field. I initially was going to play it straight up the middle with essentially neutral Forbes Field, but as I looked deeper I decided that emphasizing my team’s high average and significant power threats seemed wise. Wrigley will boost the hits and the homers, so my pitching staff will be tested a bit more. I just think I’m in a better position taking advantage of what we do better than most teams.
Outlook: There are assuredly no easy divisions here, and I sympathize with ff09 for having to take the only salary penalty and getting pushed up here with over $10M less on the field. Some salary may be wasted everywhere, so that may not matter in the end. I’ll take a guess that our division is the favorite to land the wild card, and I’ll predict 88 wins and a playoff spot for this group.