Posted by jtrinsey on 2/15/2013 5:16:00 PM (view original):
Just to comment on this thread, I think some people are trying to read a bit too much into certain things.
The example that MikeT posted shows pretty clearly the relationship between +/- and pitching, and it's not that difficult to quantify.
Adjusting for IP, Mike's pitchers allowed about 61 fewer non-HR hits in S10 than they did in S9. Their +/- was 53 better. Pretty simple. Generally speaking, for every 1 increase in +/-, you save about 1 hit. You can ballpark the value of a hit at about a half of a run. So, every 1 increase in +/- saves you about half a run. Not too complicated.
Not all + plays are "hits turning into outs". That's overly simplistic, and generally inaccurate.
I had a SS type with 90+ arm ratings who I played in CF for a number of seasons. He had a ton of + plays every season. But when I went through play by play one season to get a better understanding of exactly what he was doing for me defensively, I saw that most of his + plays were on base hits. I think his arm was deterring singles from being stretched into doubles (as they may have been on a more "average" CF). Still a valuable thing, but certainly not the same value as turning hits into outs.
Bottom line: not all + plays are the same.
7/17/2014 8:51 AM (edited)