1.) A posession occurs from the time you obtain control of the ball until the time your opponent obtains control of the ball. No amount of rebounds will give you more posessions, only more shots.
Everything about this statement illustrates why you aren't actually thinking - you're just arguing for the sake of arguing. Technically, yes, you're correct in what counts as a possession. However, you're an idiot if you don't understand that more shots than your opponent is the thing you should be focusing on - NOT a technicality.
2.) Sim values become asymtotic: if you had 170% creb and your opponent had 45% creb, he would still get some rebounds (Or 200% vs. 0%) , and that total likely would be more than he should by the stats, which get extremely hinky at outlier territory.
Agreed. However, when the game is tied and your MJ misses a shot with 3 seconds remaining, you bet your *** I want the highest % chance available to grab that rebound and deny you the opportunity to shoot again, simultaneously gaining me a shot to win it. So in that case, yes, I'll take the 170 over the 130. And that's what it's about. It ain't about how bad you beat the ****** teams in the sim... it's about doing what it takes to win a 7-game series.
3.) Turnovers +fouls are a realiable indicator, as good as creb for determining events. If this weren't true, George McGinnis would be as valuable as Antwan Jamison. He costs slightly more, has better creb and defense, the same efg, so he has to be as good in the Sim, right? Heck, he won't average that 10 fouls + tovs a game, right?
Now you're just being stupid. Only a complete moron is going to look at only creb% when looking at players. I'm not even going to bother continuing with that... Jesus.
4.) Top players do everything well (or at least get assigned everything well- every time I see Labron's 100 defense I want to laugh out loud) so it it very hard to isolate the value of individual stats.
Duh. But you see certain guys do better more consistently and you learn why. Or at least I learn why. I make it my mission to find out why another team exceeds expectations or why my team meets them, exceeds them, or falls below. I take that information and apply it repeatedly to see if it is, in fact, true. And then I share my findings - and you know what? A lot of people have a lot of success with the stuff I've taught them.
5.) top to bottom, the teams in an ODL don't have anything like real life variance in total rebounds vs. a random NBA season, for instance. And the efg gap is narrowing too. Sooooo, other things will become more significant in determining winners. Unfortunately, one of those things is random Sim noise.
The teams are getting better. It's becoming more and more a contest of who can squeeze the most blood out of the turnip. That's what the sim is all about anyway, however. #redundancy
6.) Once you get to a certain creb, I would start looking at other things, starting with levering efg.
This is one of the fundamental things wrong with your and most owners' team-building philosophies. "Okay, I've got X amount of N stat; now I'll try and get Y amount of A stat." That's called cookie-cutting, and while there is a large degree of cookie-cutting to sim success, it's not all of it. The thinkers consistently out perform the cookie cutters - and the hilarious thing is that the thinkers end up with more of everything than the cookie cutters.
7.) current open league I am in, I am outrebounding opponents by around 200 in 40 games, and my efg's are inhuman, and I am 19-20. I am getting obliterated in assists, fouls and steals though, mius 300, 100, 100 in 39 games. This is my point- you can't give up more fouls, more steals and fewer assists and expect to win, even if you are +x rebounds a game all season long.
Again, this is a flaw beyond rebounds. You built a ****** team that fouls a lot. Your lack of success in one open league doesn't prove or disprove **** about rebounds.
You are also putting way too much emphasis on steals. Steals are almost accidental in the sim. Turnovers, while good to control, aren't the be-all, end-all of stats. Most of the 30ish championships I've won have been when my team was in the bottom 5 of turnovers, often dead last. But you know what? Giving the ball away 1.5-3 times a game more than my opponent is an okay trade-off when I'm shooting 5% better and getting 10-15 more rebounds a game. That's 10 to 15 possessions* (term loosely applied here, don't think technically, think like a human) I'm getting *or* stopping, leading directly to more shot attempts. And when you're shooting 5% better than your opponent, those extra shot opportunities really add up.
edit: So I just looked at your OL team. Problem #1: You have too few assists. You have so few that your team is in a penalty every offensive possession. Problem #2: You are spending too much money on the wrong minutes. Yes, 17.4k is a good number to shoot for in OLs, but you're getting less value by picking people with higher minutes. 91-92 Rodman, for example, is a terrible player in an OL. You're paying $9M+ for a 6th-tier usage player. In a limited environment like an OL, you need to spend that money on offense first. You'd be much better off only spending $5.7M on the 92-93 version and using that extra $4M on some better offense somewhere. Things are different when the cap is $47M or even $52M. There are other problems with the squad but it's a moot point...
no amount of rebounds will make up for fundamental flaws in a team. Is that your point? If so... duh. Hey, did you know that water is wet? I don't reckon I've seen too many people in this league or any league that drafted a ridiculous amount of boards but forgot to draft usage or assists.
Now, I don't mean to sound demeaning or argumentative... but you're just wrong on so many levels.
2/28/2012 11:26 AM (edited)