Posted by moy23 on 9/3/2015 1:20:00 PM (view original):
Heck - let's say he put all his money on the S&P 500 index on March 24th, 2000. By October 4th 2002 it would be worth almost 1/2.... (1527 to 800 points in 2 years).... And after 9 years his wealth would be down about 60% by March 6th, 2009 (683 points). Point is the markets are about timing and without a crystal ball one has very little control over what the market does. He does have control over his real estate investments and can generate a nice income from them. Respectable returns while minimizing risk. See?

You're cherry-picking peaks and valleys.

If he had invested in an S&P index fund on random day 2005, he'd be up around 80% today. If he had invested in the same fund on any random day in 1997 he'd be up around 100%.  1995 300%. 1991 500%. 1985 1200%.

The point is that Trump's wealth isn't a sign of business acumen, it's a sign that he started with a lot of money.

Posted by moy23 on 9/3/2015 1:24:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 9/3/2015 1:13:00 PM (view original):
You know the difference between an indexed mutual fund and a single stock right?

I do - but does it matter is my point? You could suggest Apple just as easily as an S&P index... They both go up and down. I gave examples of both the S&P and Nikkei.... There is no guarantee of returns with index funds.

But successful, rational people don't take everything and stick in it one stock. Lot's and lot's of successful, rational people invest all or most of their money in index funds.

Trump turned millions of dollars into billions of dollars. That's impressive. If it was easy to do, we would have many more billionaires.

Posted by stinenavy on 9/3/2015 1:46:00 PM (view original):
Trump turned millions of dollars into billions of dollars. That's impressive. If it was easy to do, we would have many more billionaires.

Over 30 years.

He turned $200 million into about $3 billion (according to Forbes).

That's something like a 10% annual return.

Since 1985 the S&P has returned about 11% annually.

Posted by moy23 on 9/3/2015 1:56:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 9/3/2015 1:31:00 PM (view original):

Posted by moy23 on 9/3/2015 1:20:00 PM (view original):
Heck - let's say he put all his money on the S&P 500 index on March 24th, 2000. By October 4th 2002 it would be worth almost 1/2.... (1527 to 800 points in 2 years).... And after 9 years his wealth would be down about 60% by March 6th, 2009 (683 points). Point is the markets are about timing and without a crystal ball one has very little control over what the market does. He does have control over his real estate investments and can generate a nice income from them. Respectable returns while minimizing risk. See?

You're cherry-picking peaks and valleys.

If he had invested in an S&P index fund on random day 2005, he'd be up around 80% today. If he had invested in the same fund on any random day in 1997 he'd be up around 100%.  1995 300%. 1991 500%. 1985 1200%.

The point is that Trump's wealth isn't a sign of business acumen, it's a sign that he started with a lot of money.

The cherry picking is intended... You are playing the hindsight is 20/20 game. If Donald had invested all his money in an index in 1988 he'd have $13 billion today.... Well if Donald invested all his money on the S&P in 2000 he'd have LOST 60% of it by 2009. That's a lot of IFs.... And it all depends on having a crystal ball which is why NOBODY invests everything the have in one market index.

The sign of business acumen is that he grew a company from under 1000 employees to over 22,000 and took a $200 million net worth and turned it into $4 billion despite 2 divorce settlements.

If he had invested all of his money in the S&P Index in 2000, how much would he have today?

Posted by moy23 on 9/3/2015 1:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 9/3/2015 1:32:00 PM (view original):

Posted by moy23 on 9/3/2015 1:24:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 9/3/2015 1:13:00 PM (view original):
You know the difference between an indexed mutual fund and a single stock right?

I do - but does it matter is my point? You could suggest Apple just as easily as an S&P index... They both go up and down. I gave examples of both the S&P and Nikkei.... There is no guarantee of returns with index funds.

But successful, rational people don't take everything and stick in it one stock. Lot's and lot's of successful, rational people invest all or most of their money in index funds.

You do realize index funds track an index... Or ONE thing. You are putting all your apples into the basket saying the market will go up.

Also you obviously don't know many successful people.... And if you do, you don't know anything about their money. NO SUCCESSFUL person invests ALL or MOST of their money in any one thing. They diversify (Managed Portfolio's, Physical Real Estate, REITs, UITs, Annuities, CDs, Savings, Angel Investing, Hedge Funds, Equities, Mutual Funds, Bonds, Treasuries and almost a million other things depending on their risk appetite).

I work in the financial industry with lots of wealthy people and I am privy to how they invest.... You are FLAT OUT WRONG.

A mutual fund is a group of stocks. It is not one thing.

Yes. 

I was looking at Bloomberg's estimate ($2.9B) and typed Forbes instead.

So, it's a toss up. If he's worth $3B or less, he's no better than any shlub with a 401K.

If he's worth $4B or more, he outperformed the S&P.

One strategy and one stock are not the same thing.