Some fun stats - averages have changed Topic

Posted by reeeems on 11/18/2010 2:56:00 PM (view original):

i see a 9-6 National Champion in our future.

I just won the Rockne 1-AA National Championship with an 8-seed 9-4 team entering the playoffs. While I am proud to say it's my first ever after almost 4 years, it does feel somewhat tainted. In the final, I played an all-passing shotgun team, and had one DL get 7 sacks on him! It's also frustrating to see so few pass plays between 15 yards and 50 yards, with multiple 0 to 3-yard passes, out of aggressive pass play calling on my part, peppered with some really long ones.

I'd have to say that 7 sacks by one player in one game is kind of unreasonable. I believe that matches Derrick Thomas' NFL record with the KC Chiefs.  Also, we had multiple punts to the 1 yard-line.

It's great to see some real statistical analysis being done so we can finally get some corrections.

By the way, given how much you've stood to lose from all this slid64er, I can't say enough how impressed I am with the diplomacy you have shown in dealing with all of this.
11/21/2010 6:06 PM
not sure if something has changed but last 3 games i am avg around 5 yds a carry...
11/21/2010 7:22 PM
Here are some run averages per formation.  I need to get a larger sample size for some of these to be accurate at all.  This is for wilkinson 11/21/10


# of Runs Human Sim Total
D-IA 2593.0 1057.0 3650.0
D-IAA 1300.0 2235.0 3535.0
D-II 1371.0 3088.0 4459.0
D-III 2246.0 4707.0 6953.0
All 7510.0 11087.0 18597.0
Run Avg Human Sim Total
D-IA 3.785 3.678 3.754
D-IAA 3.781 3.625 3.682
D-II 3.965 3.594 3.708
D-III 3.768 3.729 3.742
All 3.812 3.666 3.725
# of Runs IForm Human Sim Total
D-IA 517.0 285.0 802.0
D-IAA 226.0 585.0 811.0
D-II 224.0 893.0 1117.0
D-III 359.0 1209.0 1568.0
All 1326.0 2972.0 4298.0
Run Avg IForm Human Sim Total
D-IA 3.555 3.54 3.55
D-IAA 3.664 3.586 3.608
D-II 4.027 3.475 3.585
D-III 3.95 3.723 3.775
All 3.76 3.604 3.652
# of Runs ProSet Human Sim Total
D-IA 400.0 381.0 781.0
D-IAA 193.0 824.0 1017.0
D-II 288.0 1082.0 1370.0
D-III 487.0 1788.0 2275.0
All 1368.0 4075.0 5443.0
Run Avg ProSet Human Sim Total
D-IA 4.128 3.383 3.764
D-IAA 3.155 3.846 3.715
D-II 4.104 3.72 3.801
D-III 3.973 3.664 3.731
All 3.931 3.69 3.75
# of Runs ND Human Sim Total
D-IA 787.0 35.0 822.0
D-IAA 357.0 63.0 420.0
D-II 442.0 110.0 552.0
D-III 527.0 136.0 663.0
All 2113.0 344.0 2457.0
Run Avg ND Human Sim Total
D-IA 3.661 4.171 3.682
D-IAA 3.625 3.206 3.562
D-II 4.17 3.518 4.04
D-III 3.548 4.044 3.65
All 3.733 3.735 3.733
# of Runs WB Human Sim Total
D-IA 325.0 0.0 325.0
D-IAA 243.0 0.0 243.0
D-II 166.0 0.0 166.0
D-III 385.0 0.0 385.0
All 1119.0 0.0 1119.0
Run Avg WB Human Sim Total
D-IA 3.258 0.0 3.258
D-IAA 3.831 0.0 3.831
D-II 2.904 0.0 2.904
D-III 3.413 0.0 3.413
All 3.383 0.0 3.383
# of Runs Trips Human Sim Total
D-IA 531.0 356.0 887.0
D-IAA 281.0 763.0 1044.0
D-II 233.0 1003.0 1236.0
D-III 453.0 1573.0 2026.0
All 1498.0 3695.0 5193.0
Run Avg Trips Human Sim Total
D-IA 4.277 4.056 4.188
D-IAA 4.459 3.45 3.721
D-II 4.27 3.572 3.704
D-III 3.909 3.774 3.805
All 4.199 3.68 3.829
# of Runs Shotgun Human Sim Total
D-IA 33.0 0.0 33.0
D-IAA 0.0 0.0 0.0
D-II 18.0 0.0 18.0
D-III 35.0 1.0 36.0
All 86.0 1.0 87.0
Run Avg Shotgun Human Sim Total
D-IA 3.485 0.0 3.485
D-IAA 0.0 0.0 0.0
D-II 1.778 0.0 1.778
D-III 4.4 13.0 4.639
All 3.5 13.0 3.609
11/22/2010 12:27 AM
Here are pass averages.  The average yards are for completions only.  Again, wilkinson 11/21/10


# of Passes Human Sim Total
D-IA 2542.0 995.0 3537.0
D-IAA 1412.0 2223.0 3635.0
D-II 1114.0 3044.0 4158.0
D-III 2064.0 4544.0 6608.0
All 7132.0 10806.0 17938.0
Pass Comp. % Human Sim Total
D-IA 0.648 0.655 0.65
D-IAA 0.644 0.635 0.638
D-II 0.636 0.63 0.631
D-III 0.629 0.592 0.604
All 0.64 0.617 0.626
Pass Avg Human Sim Total
D-IA 11.47 10.454 11.182
D-IAA 11.491 10.388 10.82
D-II 11.055 10.23 10.452
D-III 10.039 9.808 9.883
All 11.002 10.115 10.475
# of Passes IForm Human Sim Total
D-IA 262.0 97.0 359.0
D-IAA 119.0 287.0 406.0
D-II 99.0 360.0 459.0
D-III 199.0 520.0 719.0
All 679.0 1264.0 1943.0
Pass Comp. % IForm Human Sim Total
D-IA 0.672 0.68 0.674
D-IAA 0.639 0.606 0.616
D-II 0.576 0.647 0.632
D-III 0.563 0.573 0.57
All 0.62 0.61 0.613
Pass Avg IForm Human Sim Total
D-IA 15.455 10.152 14.008
D-IAA 13.289 9.385 10.572
D-II 10.579 9.296 9.548
D-III 9.875 10.517 10.341
All 12.919 9.861 10.941
# of Passes ProSet Human Sim Total
D-IA 326.0 302.0 628.0
D-IAA 276.0 669.0 945.0
D-II 260.0 920.0 1180.0
D-III 393.0 1389.0 1782.0
All 1255.0 3280.0 4535.0
Pass Comp. % ProSet Human Sim Total
D-IA 0.669 0.623 0.646
D-IAA 0.634 0.617 0.622
D-II 0.658 0.641 0.645
D-III 0.636 0.603 0.611
All 0.649 0.619 0.627
Pass Avg ProSet Human Sim Total
D-IA 12.638 11.053 11.904
D-IAA 12.189 10.501 11.003
D-II 11.327 11.053 11.114
D-III 10.152 9.569 9.703
All 11.502 10.328 10.664
# of Passes ND Human Sim Total
D-IA 191.0 7.0 198.0
D-IAA 121.0 17.0 138.0
D-II 95.0 11.0 106.0
D-III 217.0 22.0 239.0
All 624.0 57.0 681.0
Pass Comp. % ND Human Sim Total
D-IA 0.634 1.0 0.646
D-IAA 0.727 0.588 0.71
D-II 0.6 0.818 0.623
D-III 0.687 0.636 0.682
All 0.665 0.702 0.668
Pass Avg ND Human Sim Total
D-IA 11.504 13.143 11.594
D-IAA 13.318 5.4 12.51
D-II 10.526 6.556 9.985
D-III 10.221 6.286 9.883
All 11.294 7.325 10.945
# of Passes WB Human Sim Total
D-IA 84.0 0.0 84.0
D-IAA 71.0 0.0 71.0
D-II 25.0 0.0 25.0
D-III 77.0 0.0 77.0
All 257.0 0.0 257.0
Pass Comp. % WB Human Sim Total
D-IA 0.619 0.0 0.619
D-IAA 0.676 0.0 0.676
D-II 0.48 0.0 0.48
D-III 0.584 0.0 0.584
All 0.611 0.0 0.611
Pass Avg WB Human Sim Total
D-IA 11.442 0.0 11.442
D-IAA 12.958 0.0 12.958
D-II 17.167 0.0 17.167
D-III 16.089 0.0 16.089
All 13.675 0.0 13.675
# of Passes Trips Human Sim Total
D-IA 1366.0 470.0 1836.0
D-IAA 633.0 1052.0 1685.0
D-II 424.0 1489.0 1913.0
D-III 806.0 2223.0 3029.0
All 3229.0 5234.0 8463.0
Pass Comp. % Trips Human Sim Total
D-IA 0.644 0.66 0.648
D-IAA 0.637 0.654 0.647
D-II 0.639 0.621 0.625
D-III 0.64 0.593 0.606
All 0.641 0.619 0.628
Pass Avg Trips Human Sim Total
D-IA 10.848 10.277 10.699
D-IAA 10.266 10.828 10.621
D-II 11.716 9.976 10.371
D-III 9.843 10.017 9.968
All 10.598 10.202 10.356
# of Passes Shotgun Human Sim Total
D-IA 313.0 119.0 432.0
D-IAA 192.0 198.0 390.0
D-II 211.0 264.0 475.0
D-III 372.0 390.0 762.0
All 1088.0 971.0 2059.0
Pass Comp. % Shotgun Human Sim Total
D-IA 0.642 0.681 0.653
D-IAA 0.62 0.636 0.628
D-II 0.664 0.61 0.634
D-III 0.61 0.572 0.591
All 0.631 0.609 0.621
Pass Avg Shotgun Human Sim Total
D-IA 9.423 9.753 9.518
D-IAA 11.521 9.389 10.424
D-II 9.329 10.224 9.807
D-III 9.123 8.74 8.933
All 9.668 9.421 9.554
11/22/2010 12:30 AM
I wonder if WIS themselves have the ability to analyse their own game as well as yatzr does.  I don't think they do.
11/22/2010 9:56 AM
One thing I noticed above is that there are higher avg runs from Trips than from traditional running formations, which goes to the point of "if you run from I, WB, ND, your opponent is loading the box, and it becomes much harder to run".  As I said, once we start passing more, and people start to change defenses to control that, the run wlll start to be more efficient.
11/22/2010 10:00 AM
i bet they can.  joe conte has his B.S. in "Computer Science Engineering" from notre dame.

whether they care enough to do it or not,  is another issue.
11/22/2010 10:03 AM
are you sure that in Joe's case BS stands for a degree?
11/22/2010 10:06 AM
Thought I'd post that the run averages changed somewhat today.  This is wilkinson runs for human vs sim.  This is the first time I've seen averages above 4.1 or below about 3.5.

Run Avg Human Sim Total
D-IA 4.286 2.656 3.603
D-IAA 4.212 3.975 4.107
D-II 3.818 3.392 3.624
D-III 3.883 3.605 3.746
All 4.025 3.478 3.774
11/23/2010 11:17 PM
Here are pass stats for today in wilkinson for human vs sim

Pass Comp. % Human Sim Total
D-IA 0.637 0.572 0.607
D-IAA 0.636 0.575 0.606
D-II 0.684 0.62 0.652
D-III 0.635 0.606 0.62
All 0.646 0.596 0.621
Pass Avg Human Sim Total
D-IA 12.263 9.688 11.14
D-IAA 11.476 9.17 10.405
D-II 9.94 9.682 9.818
D-III 10.404 9.889 10.147
All 10.899 9.651 10.307
11/23/2010 11:19 PM
yatzr - Pass Avg = Yards per Catch and not Yards per Attempt, correct?

Thanks again for keeping tabs on this.  This is great work.
11/23/2010 11:23 PM
Posted by slid64er on 11/23/2010 11:23:00 PM (view original):
yatzr - Pass Avg = Yards per Catch and not Yards per Attempt, correct?

Thanks again for keeping tabs on this.  This is great work.
correct
11/23/2010 11:26 PM
Great stuff yatzr.  I vote you as our MVP.
11/24/2010 1:34 AM
It is good to finally see the average human coached team with run and pass play averages higher than the sims.  Definitely a step in the right direction.

Of all the post threads right now, THIS is the one I hope JConte and WIS are actually reading.  I agree with Bob, yatzr for MVP!
11/24/2010 1:57 AM
Does it seem to anyone like the new effectiveness settings are working?  I didn't actually get a chance to set mine up last night, but I grabbed the average fatigue from today's games and it looks the same as before.  So either everyone was like me and didn't set them up (certainly possible), or maybe they're not taking effect yet.

Todays avg fatigue in wilkinson

Avg Fatigue Human Sim Total
D-IA 3.891 3.865 3.883
D-IAA 3.89 3.865 3.875
D-II 3.858 3.877 3.872
D-III 3.879 3.855 3.862
All 3.882 3.864 3.871
11/24/2010 5:03 PM
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Some fun stats - averages have changed Topic

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