have to vary your schedule to take into account your team and your conference
Generally, my approach is to target two criteria
1. win 8-10 OOC games
2. play opponents that I think will win the most games, subject to goal #1 - note, I didnt say the best teams, I said teams that will win the most games - since opponents wins matter
One can get more complex and more subtle, but above criteria have served me well.