Posted by tarvolon on 11/9/2016 1:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by zorzii on 11/9/2016 1:41:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tarvolon on 11/9/2016 1:20:00 PM (view original):
Y'all stop putting a lower limit on your chances with H. If you're high, your chances are non-zero. But they're not 30% or more. They're not 10% or more. They're above zero, and how far above zero depends on whether you're at the top or the bottom of the high range.

Tarvolon : Still, I lost three battles while the other was high, isn't it better to give us the % we have... Moderate is zero... It could be graded like this, VL, L, M, and then your % of signing the recruit... I'd buy that. I have that H, to VH concept. It does not give you any information whatsoever... Losing three battles make me think the H was very close to my VH. What's the max of a H, 40%? To me, it's not a lot...

And get the HVS cap to 40. Get the CV cap to 2... It will change the strategy... Late comer will have a tougher time lurking. It seems the best strategy, lurk and bite...

We don't know the percentages, but if I had to make a wild guess, I would say

Very low, low, moderate: 0% chance of signing the recruit
High: 1-35% chance of signing the recruit (assuming a two-team battle), depending on whether you're closer to VH or to moderate
Very high: 35-100% chance of signing the recruit (assuming a two-team battle).

But we do know the chances in a two team race .. seble used it as a definition. He said .. it takes > 35% raw (no leading team bonus) to qualify for High. That is a set amount. If you have 35% or less probability then you are Moderate or lower. If you are Moderate, the chance if signing is 0.

Therefore in a two team race, the minimum probability would be 35% for high team. He then said he added 5% to the leader .. in a two team battle, that means that the 35% becomes 30%. So, then in a two team battle, as High, you have a minimum of 30% chance. That means the Very HIGH team has a Max of 70% chance.

That is not speculation, it is a definition.

Posted by zorzii on 11/9/2016 2:27:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tarvolon on 11/9/2016 1:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by zorzii on 11/9/2016 1:41:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tarvolon on 11/9/2016 1:20:00 PM (view original):
Y'all stop putting a lower limit on your chances with H. If you're high, your chances are non-zero. But they're not 30% or more. They're not 10% or more. They're above zero, and how far above zero depends on whether you're at the top or the bottom of the high range.

Tarvolon : Still, I lost three battles while the other was high, isn't it better to give us the % we have... Moderate is zero... It could be graded like this, VL, L, M, and then your % of signing the recruit... I'd buy that. I have that H, to VH concept. It does not give you any information whatsoever... Losing three battles make me think the H was very close to my VH. What's the max of a H, 40%? To me, it's not a lot...

And get the HVS cap to 40. Get the CV cap to 2... It will change the strategy... Late comer will have a tougher time lurking. It seems the best strategy, lurk and bite...

We don't know the percentages, but if I had to make a wild guess, I would say

Very low, low, moderate: 0% chance of signing the recruit
High: 1-35% chance of signing the recruit (assuming a two-team battle), depending on whether you're closer to VH or to moderate
Very high: 35-100% chance of signing the recruit (assuming a two-team battle).

Well, if we get the stats, I think H is higher cause it sure does not look like it can be lower than 33%.

correct .. it can not be lower than 35% raw or 30% corrected .. in a two team battle.

Posted by hughesjr on 11/10/2016 10:33:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tarvolon on 11/9/2016 1:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by zorzii on 11/9/2016 1:41:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tarvolon on 11/9/2016 1:20:00 PM (view original):
Y'all stop putting a lower limit on your chances with H. If you're high, your chances are non-zero. But they're not 30% or more. They're not 10% or more. They're above zero, and how far above zero depends on whether you're at the top or the bottom of the high range.

Tarvolon : Still, I lost three battles while the other was high, isn't it better to give us the % we have... Moderate is zero... It could be graded like this, VL, L, M, and then your % of signing the recruit... I'd buy that. I have that H, to VH concept. It does not give you any information whatsoever... Losing three battles make me think the H was very close to my VH. What's the max of a H, 40%? To me, it's not a lot...

And get the HVS cap to 40. Get the CV cap to 2... It will change the strategy... Late comer will have a tougher time lurking. It seems the best strategy, lurk and bite...

We don't know the percentages, but if I had to make a wild guess, I would say

Very low, low, moderate: 0% chance of signing the recruit
High: 1-35% chance of signing the recruit (assuming a two-team battle), depending on whether you're closer to VH or to moderate
Very high: 35-100% chance of signing the recruit (assuming a two-team battle).

But we do know the chances in a two team race .. seble used it as a definition. He said .. it takes > 35% raw (no leading team bonus) to qualify for High. That is a set amount. If you have 35% or less probability then you are Moderate or lower. If you are Moderate, the chance if signing is 0.

Therefore in a two team race, the minimum probability would be 35% for high team. He then said he added 5% to the leader .. in a two team battle, that means that the 35% becomes 30%. So, then in a two team battle, as High, you have a minimum of 30% chance. That means the Very HIGH team has a Max of 70% chance.

That is not speculation, it is a definition.

The 'boost' or adjustment to the leader isn't necessarily 5%. He gave us an example of a battle that was a 51% vs 49% signing odds for 2 teams and the adjustment added 4% signing odds to the leading team. So, in a VERY close battle it was 4%. But in a battle that isn't as close, this adjustment can be higher.

Posted by zorzii on 11/9/2016 2:27:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tarvolon on 11/9/2016 1:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by zorzii on 11/9/2016 1:41:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tarvolon on 11/9/2016 1:20:00 PM (view original):
Y'all stop putting a lower limit on your chances with H. If you're high, your chances are non-zero. But they're not 30% or more. They're not 10% or more. They're above zero, and how far above zero depends on whether you're at the top or the bottom of the high range.

Tarvolon : Still, I lost three battles while the other was high, isn't it better to give us the % we have... Moderate is zero... It could be graded like this, VL, L, M, and then your % of signing the recruit... I'd buy that. I have that H, to VH concept. It does not give you any information whatsoever... Losing three battles make me think the H was very close to my VH. What's the max of a H, 40%? To me, it's not a lot...

And get the HVS cap to 40. Get the CV cap to 2... It will change the strategy... Late comer will have a tougher time lurking. It seems the best strategy, lurk and bite...

We don't know the percentages, but if I had to make a wild guess, I would say

Very low, low, moderate: 0% chance of signing the recruit
High: 1-35% chance of signing the recruit (assuming a two-team battle), depending on whether you're closer to VH or to moderate
Very high: 35-100% chance of signing the recruit (assuming a two-team battle).

Well, if we get the stats, I think H is higher cause it sure does not look like it can be lower than 33%.

Seble has confirmed that the curve is continuous. That is, there's no point where you are at 0% (moderate) and just one more AP could bump you to 30% (or even 20%).

This means that high is a range which goes from just above zero to somewhere in the 30s. (talking signing odds here, not effort proportion)

That said, I would expect that the curve is accelerated on the lower ends. So I would guess that there are more highs around 30% than highs around 5%

"The 'boost' or adjustment to the leader isn't necessarily 5%. He gave us an example of a battle that was a 51% vs 49% signing odds for 2 teams and the adjustment added 4% signing odds to the leading team. So, in a VERY close battle it was 4%. But in a battle that isn't as close, this adjustment can be higher."

Correct. Seble referred to it as "stretching" the curve.

Posted by hughesjr on 11/10/2016 10:33:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tarvolon on 11/9/2016 1:46:00 PM (view original):

Posted by zorzii on 11/9/2016 1:41:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tarvolon on 11/9/2016 1:20:00 PM (view original):
Y'all stop putting a lower limit on your chances with H. If you're high, your chances are non-zero. But they're not 30% or more. They're not 10% or more. They're above zero, and how far above zero depends on whether you're at the top or the bottom of the high range.

Tarvolon : Still, I lost three battles while the other was high, isn't it better to give us the % we have... Moderate is zero... It could be graded like this, VL, L, M, and then your % of signing the recruit... I'd buy that. I have that H, to VH concept. It does not give you any information whatsoever... Losing three battles make me think the H was very close to my VH. What's the max of a H, 40%? To me, it's not a lot...

And get the HVS cap to 40. Get the CV cap to 2... It will change the strategy... Late comer will have a tougher time lurking. It seems the best strategy, lurk and bite...

We don't know the percentages, but if I had to make a wild guess, I would say

Very low, low, moderate: 0% chance of signing the recruit
High: 1-35% chance of signing the recruit (assuming a two-team battle), depending on whether you're closer to VH or to moderate
Very high: 35-100% chance of signing the recruit (assuming a two-team battle).

But we do know the chances in a two team race .. seble used it as a definition. He said .. it takes > 35% raw (no leading team bonus) to qualify for High. That is a set amount. If you have 35% or less probability then you are Moderate or lower. If you are Moderate, the chance if signing is 0.

Therefore in a two team race, the minimum probability would be 35% for high team. He then said he added 5% to the leader .. in a two team battle, that means that the 35% becomes 30%. So, then in a two team battle, as High, you have a minimum of 30% chance. That means the Very HIGH team has a Max of 70% chance.

That is not speculation, it is a definition.

is this a correct application of math?

lets say three teams have the following raw probabilities

40, 31 and 29

the team at 40 is VH, the team at 31 is high and the team att 29 is mod?

the team at 40 has apx a 40/71 chance of winning? maybe more cause it gets leader bonus?

but then the team at 29 devotes more effort. New raw % are 40, 30 and 30? resulting in three teams at VH, high and high? and the team at 40 has a 40/100 chance of winning??

huh?

No, the raw efforts are modified into the probabilities of signing. That's what hughes is talking about and what Seble called "stretching the curve."