Cause and effect:
Cause: Understanding the game at this level ... "It all comes down to a dice roll, coin flip, picking from a hat, whatever you want to call it."

Effect: "... 1 for 9 in battles ..."

Food for thought: Are there hidden multipliers? Like coaching exp/prestige ? Players already listed at that position?

We see what a recruits preferences are, but are there additional factors than preferences, school prestige, and any promises we made?
I have no data backing it up, just wondering out loud if there's extra factors that make 3.0 more interesting.

Posted by CoachSpud on 12/25/2016 10:27:00 PM (view original):
Cause and effect:
Cause: Understanding the game at this level ... "It all comes down to a dice roll, coin flip, picking from a hat, whatever you want to call it."

Effect: "... 1 for 9 in battles ..."

Perhaps you didn't understand. I am 1 for 9 in battles where I had the same or more effort put forth. The only one where I was possibly slightly behind was a loss to an excellent coach this most recent cycle. Not at all upset about that one. The other 8? I was ahead, by a very strong margin, but I lost. 3 of them to teams at H when I was VH. The results have so far been strongly against me despite the odds supposedly in my favor. CoachSpud, please explain to me statistically how this makes sense?

Posted by snafu4u on 12/25/2016 11:16:00 PM (view original):

Posted by CoachSpud on 12/25/2016 10:27:00 PM (view original):
Cause and effect:
Cause: Understanding the game at this level ... "It all comes down to a dice roll, coin flip, picking from a hat, whatever you want to call it."

Effect: "... 1 for 9 in battles ..."

Perhaps you didn't understand. I am 1 for 9 in battles where I had the same or more effort put forth. The only one where I was possibly slightly behind was a loss to an excellent coach this most recent cycle. Not at all upset about that one. The other 8? I was ahead, by a very strong margin, but I lost. 3 of them to teams at H when I was VH. The results have so far been strongly against me despite the odds supposedly in my favor. CoachSpud, please explain to me statistically how this makes sense?

Spud would have won all those battles obviously.

Okay, for the 85/15 comment, those are SIGNING % numbers not effort. Since it can't get much higher than that, I suspect you were somewhere close to 70% of total effort.

If you were all in, I suspect the other team had like 7-9 HV's and all the trimmings.

It's also possible that your very bad was worse than his, if he was 1,000 miles away and you were 2300 you have the bigger penalty, and/or your goods weren't very good.

Posted by Trentonjoe on 12/26/2016 12:30:00 PM (view original):
Okay, for the 85/15 comment, those are SIGNING % numbers not effort. Since it can't get much higher than that, I suspect you were somewhere close to 70% of total effort.

If you were all in, I suspect the other team had like 7-9 HV's and all the trimmings.

It's also possible that your very bad was worse than his, if he was 1,000 miles away and you were 2300 you have the bigger penalty, and/or your goods weren't very good.

The other team was all in with promised minutes and start as well. As I said, I had a big AP lead of 400 (his signing happened in the first period), a huge preferences lead, and I was A+ prestige to his B. We both had the very bad for distance (preference was far from home), I was about 150 miles away, opponent was around 230 IIRC.

Posted by snafu4u on 12/25/2016 11:16:00 PM (view original):

Posted by CoachSpud on 12/25/2016 10:27:00 PM (view original):
Cause and effect:
Cause: Understanding the game at this level ... "It all comes down to a dice roll, coin flip, picking from a hat, whatever you want to call it."

Effect: "... 1 for 9 in battles ..."

Perhaps you didn't understand. I am 1 for 9 in battles where I had the same or more effort put forth. The only one where I was possibly slightly behind was a loss to an excellent coach this most recent cycle. Not at all upset about that one. The other 8? I was ahead, by a very strong margin, but I lost. 3 of them to teams at H when I was VH. The results have so far been strongly against me despite the odds supposedly in my favor. CoachSpud, please explain to me statistically how this makes sense?

Perhaps you don't understand. You have chosen not to drive your opposition down. Put another way, you have chosen not to distance your efforts from those of your opponent. Even after seeing that distancing yourself from your opponent is important [you do see that, right?] you have continued to fail to do so. Don't blame the game.

Edited for the benefit of people who understand coin flips, or think they do, but don't understand that recruiting is the result of your choices: if you flip a coin ten times, you might get nine tails.

Posted by CoachSpud on 12/26/2016 2:24:00 PM (view original):

Posted by snafu4u on 12/25/2016 11:16:00 PM (view original):

Posted by CoachSpud on 12/25/2016 10:27:00 PM (view original):
Cause and effect:
Cause: Understanding the game at this level ... "It all comes down to a dice roll, coin flip, picking from a hat, whatever you want to call it."

Effect: "... 1 for 9 in battles ..."

Perhaps you didn't understand. I am 1 for 9 in battles where I had the same or more effort put forth. The only one where I was possibly slightly behind was a loss to an excellent coach this most recent cycle. Not at all upset about that one. The other 8? I was ahead, by a very strong margin, but I lost. 3 of them to teams at H when I was VH. The results have so far been strongly against me despite the odds supposedly in my favor. CoachSpud, please explain to me statistically how this makes sense?

Perhaps you don't understand. You have chosen not to drive your opposition down. Put another way, you have chosen not to distance your efforts from those of your opponent. Even after seeing that distancing yourself from your opponent is important [you do see that, right?] you have continued to fail to do so. Don't blame the game.

Edited for the benefit of people who understand coin flips, or think they do, but don't understand that recruiting is the result of your choices: if you flip a coin ten times, you might get nine tails.

I think you are now willfully ignoring the context. I DID distance my self from my opponents. I DID drive my opposition down. I created scenarios where I had a HUGE advantage. I allocated my recruiting dollars very carefully and built huge leads. My losses were when the probability was in my favor. Three of my losses were when I had better than an 80% chance to sign the recruit, the others I estimate between 60-70%. I did everything you have recommended, yet it did not influence the outcome to my favor.

Your last sentence gets right to the point: "if you flip a coin ten times, you might get nine tails."

This is exactly what happened to me. 10 Coin Flips, 9 losses. My effort did not mean anything in the end, because the coin flip didn't go my way. I am glad to see you are beginning to understand how this works.

Posted by snafu4u on 12/26/2016 3:49:00 PM (view original):

Posted by CoachSpud on 12/26/2016 2:24:00 PM (view original):

Posted by snafu4u on 12/25/2016 11:16:00 PM (view original):

Posted by CoachSpud on 12/25/2016 10:27:00 PM (view original):
Cause and effect:
Cause: Understanding the game at this level ... "It all comes down to a dice roll, coin flip, picking from a hat, whatever you want to call it."

Effect: "... 1 for 9 in battles ..."

Perhaps you didn't understand. I am 1 for 9 in battles where I had the same or more effort put forth. The only one where I was possibly slightly behind was a loss to an excellent coach this most recent cycle. Not at all upset about that one. The other 8? I was ahead, by a very strong margin, but I lost. 3 of them to teams at H when I was VH. The results have so far been strongly against me despite the odds supposedly in my favor. CoachSpud, please explain to me statistically how this makes sense?

Perhaps you don't understand. You have chosen not to drive your opposition down. Put another way, you have chosen not to distance your efforts from those of your opponent. Even after seeing that distancing yourself from your opponent is important [you do see that, right?] you have continued to fail to do so. Don't blame the game.

Edited for the benefit of people who understand coin flips, or think they do, but don't understand that recruiting is the result of your choices: if you flip a coin ten times, you might get nine tails.

I think you are now willfully ignoring the context. I DID distance my self from my opponents. I DID drive my opposition down. I created scenarios where I had a HUGE advantage. I allocated my recruiting dollars very carefully and built huge leads. My losses were when the probability was in my favor. Three of my losses were when I had better than an 80% chance to sign the recruit, the others I estimate between 60-70%. I did everything you have recommended, yet it did not influence the outcome to my favor.

Your last sentence gets right to the point: "if you flip a coin ten times, you might get nine tails."

This is exactly what happened to me. 10 Coin Flips, 9 losses. My effort did not mean anything in the end, because the coin flip didn't go my way. I am glad to see you are beginning to understand how this works.

Snafu4u sometimes you just got to learn to hang up the skates! Its 5 against 1 and I am not believing your scenario at all.

"better than an 80% chance to sign the recruit" That only happens when the chances are 100% vs. 0%. Don't believe some of the Kool-Aid being bandied about on the forums.

"This is exactly what happened to me. 10 Coin Flips, 9 losses."
And that brings us full circle:
"Cause and effect:
Cause: Understanding the game at this level ... "It all comes down to a dice roll, coin flip, picking from a hat, whatever you want to call it."
Effect: "... 1 for 9 in battles ..." "
And if that's your understanding, that's okay.

Posted by snafu4u on 12/25/2016 11:16:00 PM (view original):

Posted by CoachSpud on 12/25/2016 10:27:00 PM (view original):
Cause and effect:
Cause: Understanding the game at this level ... "It all comes down to a dice roll, coin flip, picking from a hat, whatever you want to call it."

Effect: "... 1 for 9 in battles ..."

Perhaps you didn't understand. I am 1 for 9 in battles where I had the same or more effort put forth. The only one where I was possibly slightly behind was a loss to an excellent coach this most recent cycle. Not at all upset about that one. The other 8? I was ahead, by a very strong margin, but I lost. 3 of them to teams at H when I was VH. The results have so far been strongly against me despite the odds supposedly in my favor. CoachSpud, please explain to me statistically how this makes sense?

People don't want to play for a whiner. The players must peruse these forums!

Posted by CoachSpud on 12/26/2016 8:34:00 PM (view original):
"better than an 80% chance to sign the recruit" That only happens when the chances are 100% vs. 0%. Don't believe some of the Kool-Aid being bandied about on the forums.

"This is exactly what happened to me. 10 Coin Flips, 9 losses."
And that brings us full circle:
"Cause and effect:
Cause: Understanding the game at this level ... "It all comes down to a dice roll, coin flip, picking from a hat, whatever you want to call it."
Effect: "... 1 for 9 in battles ..." "
And if that's your understanding, that's okay.

Hilary Clinton blew a 3-1 lead.

Posted by CoachSpud on 12/26/2016 8:34:00 PM (view original):
"better than an 80% chance to sign the recruit" That only happens when the chances are 100% vs. 0%. Don't believe some of the Kool-Aid being bandied about on the forums.

"This is exactly what happened to me. 10 Coin Flips, 9 losses."
And that brings us full circle:
"Cause and effect:
Cause: Understanding the game at this level ... "It all comes down to a dice roll, coin flip, picking from a hat, whatever you want to call it."
Effect: "... 1 for 9 in battles ..." "
And if that's your understanding, that's okay.

Not Kool-Aid. Direct from customer service ticket response. I am not trying to argue with anyone. I am not whining about the outcome. I am only trying to contribute my actual game experiences and information given to me directly from whatifsports CS, so that we can all better understand how this game works. Even if my experience with 3.0 thus far is an anomaly, it contributes to the data.

Posted by snafu4u on 12/26/2016 9:06:00 PM (view original):

Posted by CoachSpud on 12/26/2016 8:34:00 PM (view original):
"better than an 80% chance to sign the recruit" That only happens when the chances are 100% vs. 0%. Don't believe some of the Kool-Aid being bandied about on the forums.

"This is exactly what happened to me. 10 Coin Flips, 9 losses."
And that brings us full circle:
"Cause and effect:
Cause: Understanding the game at this level ... "It all comes down to a dice roll, coin flip, picking from a hat, whatever you want to call it."
Effect: "... 1 for 9 in battles ..." "
And if that's your understanding, that's okay.

Not Kool-Aid. Direct from customer service ticket response. I am not trying to argue with anyone. I am not whining about the outcome. I am only trying to contribute my actual game experiences and information given to me directly from whatifsports CS, so that we can all better understand how this game works. Even if my experience with 3.0 thus far is an anomaly, it contributes to the data.

I was 1 for 11 in beta, until the final recruiting session where I was 3 for 3 with the rolls (for players I never got to use, boo). It is an anomaly. 9, 10, 11 it's a small sample size. You're going to win 8 or 9 of every 10 of those lopsided battles. You'll also lose 1 or 2 of them. Players who play the game that exists should be prepared to deal with that.

Posted by pkoopman on 12/26/2016 9:18:00 PM (view original):

Posted by snafu4u on 12/26/2016 9:06:00 PM (view original):

Posted by CoachSpud on 12/26/2016 8:34:00 PM (view original):
"better than an 80% chance to sign the recruit" That only happens when the chances are 100% vs. 0%. Don't believe some of the Kool-Aid being bandied about on the forums.

"This is exactly what happened to me. 10 Coin Flips, 9 losses."
And that brings us full circle:
"Cause and effect:
Cause: Understanding the game at this level ... "It all comes down to a dice roll, coin flip, picking from a hat, whatever you want to call it."
Effect: "... 1 for 9 in battles ..." "
And if that's your understanding, that's okay.

Not Kool-Aid. Direct from customer service ticket response. I am not trying to argue with anyone. I am not whining about the outcome. I am only trying to contribute my actual game experiences and information given to me directly from whatifsports CS, so that we can all better understand how this game works. Even if my experience with 3.0 thus far is an anomaly, it contributes to the data.

I was 1 for 11 in beta, until the final recruiting session where I was 3 for 3 with the rolls (for players I never got to use, boo). It is an anomaly. 9, 10, 11 it's a small sample size. You're going to win 8 or 9 of every 10 of those lopsided battles. You'll also lose 1 or 2 of them. Players who play the game that exists should be prepared to deal with that.

So he should stop whining and enjoy the game.