More 3.0 recruiting madness.

In Tark, I am at D+ Bowling Green. On the first day of recruiting, I went hard after a center. Ranked #61 at his position with high athleticism and good potential in key attributes. Used 20 APs each cycle until scholarship was unlocked. Did HVs, CV and Promise Start right away. He was not a backup plan, he was a primary target from the start. On his preferences, I had one very good and three neutrals.

Yet, from the first cycle, an A+ D2 team was on him and no matter what I invested, I couldn't shake him. I was always behind the D2 in terms of the recruit's interest.

Midway through the first cycle, UConn -- an A+ prestige D1 -- comes into the picture. I bail, because if I can't beat a D2 A+, I am sure not beating a D1 A+. Today, I got the notice that he signed with the D2 school. I checked the recruit's profile and the D2 and UConn were both "very high" (I was at low, so I couldn't see the dice roll numbers).

On what planet does a decision between a top D2 school and an A+ D1 school come down to a dice roll? I can kind of see an argument for a player choosing to play for a great D2 school over playing for a crappy D1 midmajor. But what player turns down UConn to play for University of the Sciences?

did U Conn offer a schollie? did they fill their slots and have no room for him?

They did offer a schollie. Not sure on their slots.

at least a possible explanation is that UConn had say N slots, made schollie offers to N+1 or N+2 - this guy was at one point VH on UConn, but ultimately it was a phantom offer.

Even D3 teams can beat D1 teams now.

mamxet, he said they were both very high, so I don't think you need to come up with some roundabout path to discount UConn as an option. If they were both very high they both had a solid shot to get the guy even if UConn had a spot.

Presumably it comes down to overall effort. Grimace put in some money and some APs. The gap between an A+ D2 and a D+ D1 is not huge (maybe about 100%, give or take). The D2 school could have been putting in 60 or 80 AP every cycle and that's how they were able to hang with you. And if it wasn't a priority for UConn to get this guy, he may have only spent 10 or 20% of the effort that the D2 school had. His AP had much less time to accumulate. Maybe D2 made promises and UConn didn't. There are ways you could have the order of magnitude gap in total effort that makes this make sense. Given that you did put in AP over the long term and he stuck with you indicates he was putting in quite a bit.

Posted by Benis on 5/11/2017 2:33:00 PM (view original):
Even D3 teams can beat D1 teams now.

WOO-HOO!!!!

Team	Coach	Division	Prestige	Int Level	Scholarship Offer?	Odds
Texas, San Antonio	twencoach	DI	B-	Very High	Yes	66%
W. Connecticut St.	MikeT23	DIII	B	High	Yes	34%
CSU, Dominguez Hills	phalla	DII	A+	Very Low	No	0%
Oklahoma State	awhoosier	DI	A-	Very Low	No	0%

Even MIKET can beat D1 teams now!

The difference between a D+ D1 team, and an A+ D2 is essentially a full letter grade of prestige. It matters, but the gap isn't wide enough that you will be certain of knocking them out of signing range. You can be pretty sure, in hindsight, that you would have stayed in consideration, had you continued to invest APs, but you had no way to know that UConn wouldn't go all in. If UConn matches effort, this isn't a question, both lower teams are done.

Benis: i don't think a D3 can beat a D1 unless it puts no effort. We need the info on that D2 battle

Also 20 AP per cycle is not a lot for a primary target. My 2 primary targets in this last recruiting cycle one of them averaged 41.53 and the other averaged 51.2 AP per cycle. If the D2 was really destined to fight for it he may have been deep with 50 AP per cycle. If UConn is sitting back at 20 AP per cycle the doubled effect and an all in situation could easily put an A+ D2 into the fight and will completely shove you out of the picture.

Posted by zorzii on 5/11/2017 5:14:00 PM (view original):
Benis: i don't think a D3 can beat a D1 unless it puts no effort. We need the info on that D2 battle

No, that's not true.

Remember a few months back a D3 team beat a D1 A prestige team (I think maybe it was Uconn?). The D1 team put in about 10 HVs and the D3 stayed at High and won on the dice roll.

For the record, Texas, SA wasn't even on the considering list the period before he signed. I dropped 3 HV(all I could afford as he was on the other side of the world) in hopes of holding off OSU(who was the only one listed). I assume OSU put in zero effort.

Benis : It looks to be fixed. I passed D3 easily. We need real efforts. I think a D3 should pencil a four or five stars, put in 80
ap, on a late signee, from the start and promise 25, start, and get the cv and as many hv in as possible. My bet is h finishes at low or vlow

What do you mean it looks to be fixed?