*How to get a great second session class*

1. Get Lucky on your Sim AI First Session

My boy "Sim AI" held Iowa the first session. He signed this solid 1-star guard by getting lucky in a 3 way roll
Rafael Pridmore:
76 ath
82 sp
54 reb
81+ de
86+ per
76 bh
55 pa
84 sta

2. Find a cheap, low-ranked, good player 50 miles away with a late signing preference and use half your money to strong-arm the DII
Lynn Fernando
Ath 95
Sp 76
De 95+
Per 53+
BH 77
Pa 57
Sta 87+

3. Be lucky enough to have a top-level team rescind a very good player who isn't quite good enough for them. Also, make sure no one else goes for this player
Szczesny Zubris
Ath 75
sp 83
de 96
per 44
bh 79
pa 65
sta 86

4. And finally, win a 21% roll for a stud
Ath 74
sp 56
reb 76
de 100
sb 94+
lp 66+
per 45+
sta 92

So basically get lucky on 3 guys you should have never gotten

Why shouldn’t you have gotten them? I wouldn’t suggest leading with that in your real life pitch.

A better summary would be “basically, look for them and hustle.”

Posted by shoe3 on 6/6/2018 10:43:00 AM (view original):
Why shouldn’t you have gotten them? I wouldn’t suggest leading with that in your real life pitch.

A better summary would be “basically, look for them and hustle.”

The final guy took until 10 pm last night (5th cycle 2nd session... 85% of players with late preference sign before then) to sign. It was the first cycle I was in considering, and I was at 21%. So .15 * .21 = 3.1% chance I should have signed Guertin alone
In real life I'll take all the credit don't worry buddy ;)

Posted by cubcub113 on 6/6/2018 10:48:00 AM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 6/6/2018 10:43:00 AM (view original):
Why shouldn’t you have gotten them? I wouldn’t suggest leading with that in your real life pitch.

A better summary would be “basically, look for them and hustle.”

The final guy took until 10 pm last night (5th cycle 2nd session... 85% of players with late preference sign before then) to sign. It was the first cycle I was in considering, and I was at 21%. So .15 * .21 = 3.1% chance I should have signed Guertin alone
In real life I'll take all the credit don't worry buddy ;)

His signing with you was definitely a long shot. I’m sure pdx is pretty bummed it took so long, but that’s life when you’re a D2 reaching up high for a late signee.

Where is the 85% figure coming from? I understand most late preference guys will sign in the first 6 cycles of RS2 (10pm should be the 6th cycle, right?). Is that what you mean?

cub that Guertin decision cuts deep. I've lost dice rolls before, but at least I knew those dice rolls were coming. I got blitzed by you and Purdue at the same time. Thought he was 100% mine, then poof...51% and it still didn't matter. He's simply a nice player for you...would have been a GAME-CHANGER in d2 hahaha.

I'm not mad, it all evens out in the end. I got lucky last season on my recruits too. Good luck man

Posted by pdxblazerfan on 6/6/2018 11:04:00 AM (view original):
cub that Guertin decision cuts deep. I've lost dice rolls before, but at least I knew those dice rolls were coming. I got blitzed by you and Purdue at the same time. Thought he was 100% mine, then poof...51% and it still didn't matter. He's simply a nice player for you...would have been a GAME-CHANGER in d2 hahaha.

I'm not mad, it all evens out in the end. I got lucky last season on my recruits too. Good luck man

Good luck too and I feel awful. First of all, man, he would have been one of the top DII players in the country. I mean he'll still start in some hopefully pretty good teams for me, but he would have been like 17 and 10 in DII if that LP matures. All you needed was for him to either (a) sign one of the first 4 cycles in the second session (85%) or have him sign with you on the dice roll after we got into considering (54%). So you had a 93% chance to sign him wow.

You have great self-control I'd be so mad lmao

Glad to see Iowa finally hired a good Coach. Now don't let my (former) recruits screw up your plans next for year.

What is 85%? Is that after 4, 5, or 6 cycles, and where did you come up with it?

You're just lucky I fell asleep and didn't offer more than the schollie on Zubris ;)

Posted by cubcub113 on 6/6/2018 12:32:00 PM (view original):
You have great self-control I'd be so mad lmao

Frustrated sure but in the grand scheme it's a game that has no bearing on my real life. If you always got everyone you went after there would be no drama or fun.

The real question is when are you gonna join a real conference like d2 peach belt? This was gonna be a stepping stone for d1 but it's too much fun.

Posted by wvufan76 on 6/6/2018 3:09:00 PM (view original):
Glad to see Iowa finally hired a good Coach. Now don't let my (former) recruits screw up your plans next for year.

I like your recruits a lot, one of the seasons I took the job

Posted by shoe3 on 6/6/2018 3:16:00 PM (view original):
What is 85%? Is that after 4, 5, or 6 cycles, and where did you come up with it?

Early and Late players appear to have the same signing path (after their respective first signing times). 85% sign after 4 cycle and the vast vast majority sign by the 5th (guertin for example)

Posted by cubcub113 on 6/7/2018 9:32:00 AM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 6/6/2018 3:16:00 PM (view original):
What is 85%? Is that after 4, 5, or 6 cycles, and where did you come up with it?

Early and Late players appear to have the same signing path (after their respective first signing times). 85% sign after 4 cycle and the vast vast majority sign by the 5th (guertin for example)

I’m asking what the figure is based on. Did someone collect a large pool of data? Wondering about the methodology. And also to clarify, if the guy signed at 10pm the second day of RS2, that is cycle 6. I’m not splitting hairs, this kind of thing matters when it comes to methodology.

Ive assumed late signing recruits all begin the second session with a low probability - 10%? and that the probability increases progressively with each cycle. I don’t doubt that it is very high by the 6th cycle, which is also when D3 teams start signing D1 pool recruits. Actually, I figured it was closer to 100% by that time, such that anyone with significant effort prior to the pool opening to D3 teams would sign with the higher level team.

Posted by shoe3 on 6/7/2018 1:09:00 PM (view original):

Posted by cubcub113 on 6/7/2018 9:32:00 AM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 6/6/2018 3:16:00 PM (view original):
What is 85%? Is that after 4, 5, or 6 cycles, and where did you come up with it?

Early and Late players appear to have the same signing path (after their respective first signing times). 85% sign after 4 cycle and the vast vast majority sign by the 5th (guertin for example)

I’m asking what the figure is based on. Did someone collect a large pool of data? Wondering about the methodology. And also to clarify, if the guy signed at 10pm the second day of RS2, that is cycle 6. I’m not splitting hairs, this kind of thing matters when it comes to methodology.

Ive assumed late signing recruits all begin the second session with a low probability - 10%? and that the probability increases progressively with each cycle. I don’t doubt that it is very high by the 6th cycle, which is also when D3 teams start signing D1 pool recruits. Actually, I figured it was closer to 100% by that time, such that anyone with significant effort prior to the pool opening to D3 teams would sign with the higher level team.

I took data from 4 recruiting years. I'd say roughly I had 300 players' data documented or roughly 75 for each preference. Pvalue < .02 for each set of players. And whatever I store my data now by time and day not cycle number but thinking about it you are correct it is the 6th cycle sorry. 85% sign after the 5th available cycle