More Probability Please Topic

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Wow, hyperbole, obfuscation, and sycophancy all in one post. Epic Benis!
8/20/2018 6:28 PM
In all seriousness, though, it appears you may have taken too many straw-man pills this morning. You may need to see a doctor about a possible logical fallacy overdose.
8/20/2018 6:37 PM
Hahaha. I love this thread! And he may have a valid point. Committees make mistakes, leave teams out. Seed teams incorrectly. In the game of college basketball, and HD, it's all based on committees decision making. Choices.

I agree. The 5 line SHOULD slip into a one seed sometime! A team that's CLEARLY dominant, and wins 9 out of 10 non con games against the top SOS should NOT fall to the 6 seed because they play in a pathetic sim conference the rest of the way. They pass the eye test from the beginning.

I vote Benis for committee chairman for the selection process. (Better pack PB&Js for the selection process. We aren't getting steak that week)
8/20/2018 7:11 PM
Posted by shoe3 on 8/20/2018 6:28:00 PM (view original):
Wow, hyperbole, obfuscation, and sycophancy all in one post. Epic Benis!
If he added a Poll, that would've really put his stamp on things! We haven't seen a poll from Benis in a while now. I'm starting to worry
8/20/2018 8:36 PM
I'm with you, but what does it take to actually see some of this happen?
8/21/2018 9:56 AM
For real! Imagine how fun it'd be. You're sitting there at #34 on projection report. You're thinking you will get an 8 seed but maybe there's a shot at a 7 seed. Then after CT is over you found out you're going to the PIT. Awww shucks!

And what would be even better is when a conference mate is #38 on the projection report and they get in as a 6 seed. Even though you had a better season than them. But hey, that's the luck of the draw!
8/21/2018 11:29 AM
Yeah lets roll with this because randomness is good for the game.
How about random firings. We find out shoe was covering for an assistant coach who was assaulting his wife and gets canned after 10 seasons and an A+ prestige. That will open up a Big 6 job somewhere that can be filled by another long time user. I actually cant understand how this got left out of 3.0....
8/21/2018 11:32 AM
Posted by Benis on 8/21/2018 11:29:00 AM (view original):
For real! Imagine how fun it'd be. You're sitting there at #34 on projection report. You're thinking you will get an 8 seed but maybe there's a shot at a 7 seed. Then after CT is over you found out you're going to the PIT. Awww shucks!

And what would be even better is when a conference mate is #38 on the projection report and they get in as a 6 seed. Even though you had a better season than them. But hey, that's the luck of the draw!
Funny but this was actually true before the projection report. All we had was RPI and teams would end up all over the place compared to that.
8/21/2018 11:34 AM
Posted by mullycj on 8/21/2018 11:34:00 AM (view original):
Posted by Benis on 8/21/2018 11:29:00 AM (view original):
For real! Imagine how fun it'd be. You're sitting there at #34 on projection report. You're thinking you will get an 8 seed but maybe there's a shot at a 7 seed. Then after CT is over you found out you're going to the PIT. Awww shucks!

And what would be even better is when a conference mate is #38 on the projection report and they get in as a 6 seed. Even though you had a better season than them. But hey, that's the luck of the draw!
Funny but this was actually true before the projection report. All we had was RPI and teams would end up all over the place compared to that.
Huh? You mean people liked the game better when it wasn't totally unknown? And people didn't like feeling like it was totally random?

Weird.
8/21/2018 11:37 AM
Posted by mullycj on 8/21/2018 11:32:00 AM (view original):
Yeah lets roll with this because randomness is good for the game.
How about random firings. We find out shoe was covering for an assistant coach who was assaulting his wife and gets canned after 10 seasons and an A+ prestige. That will open up a Big 6 job somewhere that can be filled by another long time user. I actually cant understand how this got left out of 3.0....
False accusations. We stand by Eric Jarboe, and ask that the media respect the privacy of the family during this difficult time.
8/21/2018 11:38 AM
Posted by mullycj on 8/21/2018 11:32:00 AM (view original):
Yeah lets roll with this because randomness is good for the game.
How about random firings. We find out shoe was covering for an assistant coach who was assaulting his wife and gets canned after 10 seasons and an A+ prestige. That will open up a Big 6 job somewhere that can be filled by another long time user. I actually cant understand how this got left out of 3.0....
Random firings. Love it! Every season there is a 3% chance of getting fired. If the RNG doesn't go your way well that's just too bad. Its way better to have the game decided this way than by merit.
8/21/2018 11:39 AM
Posted by mullycj on 8/21/2018 11:34:00 AM (view original):
Posted by Benis on 8/21/2018 11:29:00 AM (view original):
For real! Imagine how fun it'd be. You're sitting there at #34 on projection report. You're thinking you will get an 8 seed but maybe there's a shot at a 7 seed. Then after CT is over you found out you're going to the PIT. Awww shucks!

And what would be even better is when a conference mate is #38 on the projection report and they get in as a 6 seed. Even though you had a better season than them. But hey, that's the luck of the draw!
Funny but this was actually true before the projection report. All we had was RPI and teams would end up all over the place compared to that.
Probability is used to simulate choices outside of the coach’s control. It makes sense in recruiting, and determining early entries. Those choices are made by players, who don’t use uniform formulas to make decisions.

Tournament seeding in real life is determined by a committee of folks who (at least publicly) strive to make it objective and consistent. These are not the same types of choices that recruits make, therefore the mechanism for simulating them is different.
8/21/2018 11:45 AM
Posted by topdogggbm on 8/20/2018 7:11:00 PM (view original):
Hahaha. I love this thread! And he may have a valid point. Committees make mistakes, leave teams out. Seed teams incorrectly. In the game of college basketball, and HD, it's all based on committees decision making. Choices.

I agree. The 5 line SHOULD slip into a one seed sometime! A team that's CLEARLY dominant, and wins 9 out of 10 non con games against the top SOS should NOT fall to the 6 seed because they play in a pathetic sim conference the rest of the way. They pass the eye test from the beginning.

I vote Benis for committee chairman for the selection process. (Better pack PB&Js for the selection process. We aren't getting steak that week)
Well of course the decision for what's on the menu will be made via dice roll. About 73% chance of steak but that 27% chance of PB&J is looming.
8/21/2018 8:25 PM
Posted by Benis on 8/21/2018 8:25:00 PM (view original):
Posted by topdogggbm on 8/20/2018 7:11:00 PM (view original):
Hahaha. I love this thread! And he may have a valid point. Committees make mistakes, leave teams out. Seed teams incorrectly. In the game of college basketball, and HD, it's all based on committees decision making. Choices.

I agree. The 5 line SHOULD slip into a one seed sometime! A team that's CLEARLY dominant, and wins 9 out of 10 non con games against the top SOS should NOT fall to the 6 seed because they play in a pathetic sim conference the rest of the way. They pass the eye test from the beginning.

I vote Benis for committee chairman for the selection process. (Better pack PB&Js for the selection process. We aren't getting steak that week)
Well of course the decision for what's on the menu will be made via dice roll. About 73% chance of steak but that 27% chance of PB&J is looming.
Hahaha. When you put in only enough effort to spread cheap stuff on top of cheap stuff, 27% sounds about right. Hell, I think i'm randomly going to change my mind on our argument too.... I'll take a steak tonight! Surprised by my choice? It wasn't probability based.... I just felt like adding to the chaos. You buying Benis?
8/21/2018 8:39 PM
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