Posted by mullycj on 8/21/2018 11:34:00 AM (view original):
Posted by Benis on 8/21/2018 11:29:00 AM (view original):
For real! Imagine how fun it'd be. You're sitting there at #34 on projection report. You're thinking you will get an 8 seed but maybe there's a shot at a 7 seed. Then after CT is over you found out you're going to the PIT. Awww shucks!
And what would be even better is when a conference mate is #38 on the projection report and they get in as a 6 seed. Even though you had a better season than them. But hey, that's the luck of the draw!
Funny but this was actually true before the projection report. All we had was RPI and teams would end up all over the place compared to that.
Probability is used to simulate choices outside of the coach’s control. It makes sense in recruiting, and determining early entries. Those choices are made by players, who don’t use uniform formulas to make decisions.
Tournament seeding in real life is determined by a committee of folks who (at least publicly) strive to make it objective and consistent. These are not the same types of choices that recruits make, therefore the mechanism for simulating them is different.