Posted by shoe3 on 9/1/2018 2:33:00 PM (view original):
The game isn’t too hard for you. “Dynasty” doesn’t mean you make the final four every year. This is a competitive, multi-player game. Lots of folks have figured out how to manage EE contingencies and “scrubs”. Everyone plays with the same rules, the price and volatility of elite commodities are the same for everyone.
Has there even been a "dynasty" (which I would define 3+ national championships in a 5 year period at minimum, although I would entertain an argument for a mix of 4+ Final Fours and Championships over a 6 year period)) at DI since 3.0 started? Seriously asking, haven't seen it in any of the worlds I have been in (although piman314 at UCLA in Tark could change that with a victory tonight). The only teams I have even seen remain final four contenders are all situations where they got extremely lucky with EE's, where players that were "likely going" ended up staying. UCLA is in that situation now, where there best player was top 10 on the big board last year but miraculously came back for their Sr. year (and please don't read this as any slight against piman314--he is one of the best active coaches by any measure and I watched him dominate at Maryland, then move across the country, and build up an incredible program at UCLA).
I think the single greatest factor in winning championships under 3.0 is luck with recruiting and EE's (by which I mean beating the odds, e.g. having players stay when they were 90% EE, or winning a recruit you were trailing 30 to 70 on). The only teams I have seen win championships in 3.0 beat the odds in these types of scenarios, which is something that is completely out of a coaches hands. Yes, of course the coach had to recruit the player in the first place, but when a player stays against the odds it is an equal and opposite effect that a program has when a player leaves against the odds. One scenario can crush a program, the other can elevate it beyond all the other schools who's probabilities played out according to the numbers. Luck is the driving factor in elite success, as the system is designed to punish programs that consistently recruit top talent. When the system works, you have what happened to UConn in Tark a couple seasons ago. After a 35-0 dominant national championship run (one that followed two players in the top 12 on the big board miraculously staying), they had 3 or 4 EE's and were left with a squad that limped into the tournament. Had they not had another top 10 player from the big board stay, the next season would have been even tougher, and then this year, following two more EE's, they posted their worst record in 20 seasons. The system is designed to punish the teams who only recruit top talent to level the playing field. If a coach gets lucky and keeps players despite the odds, or wins recruits despite being a great underdog, then they can link several dominant seasons together. If the odds follow the numbers, it is impossible.