Posted by snafu4u on 9/1/2018 7:13:00 PM (view original):
Posted by shoe3 on 9/1/2018 5:06:00 PM (view original):
“Coach Cal recruits one-and-dones and does so knowingly. If his players went against the odds and stayed until their SR year his teams would be unstoppable.”
Lets talk this through, because this is the heart of most of the stupid things Benis has said over the past 2 years. Benis doesn’t like probability, and the occasional surprise that comes with it. Benis wants absolutes. So he leans hard on “realism” on this one, single issue, because sure, when measured against the modern sport, if HD’s standard was realism, the top 10-15 players of every class should be one-and-dones. HD doesn’t do that. That’s because realism isn’t the standard. The standard is good competitive gameplay.
Coach Cal does knowingly recruit one and dones. There is no such thing in HD. But there are guys very likely to be early entry candidates (if Coach Cal was an HD coach, he would probably knowingly recruit them). And there are guys who could possibly be early entry candidates. And there are guys who will not be early entry candidates. Knowing the difference between them, and planning for possibilities - as opposed to knowing the determined outcomes beforehand - are skills. Stop treating them as though it’s some kind of unearned “luck”. Buddhagamer and Bathtubhippo are great (not lucky) coaches.
Look at the Soph that was not on the big board the Benis just lost to an EE....based on everything I have seen in 11 real world years of playing this game, that player is not an EE candidate as a sohpomore and would be questionably one as a JR. It had nothing to do with skill, Benis did a great job recruiting a player that should have been a lock for 3 years, and very likely 4, but instead the random dice factor came in and took a soph not in the top 20 at his position, while, by the same random dumb luck, other coaches got to keep the #1 rated player at their position.
I hate to break it to you, but you’re not paying very close attention if you’ve been playing that long, and it surprises you that the player could be drafted. From that other thread:
“1) Class ranking by position. Top 5 players by position are very likely to be on the big board prior to their senior year, and are EE candidates. Top 20 players by position are all in the watch zone for me. There are obviously some duds that never get too close, and you can spot them by potential. At the same time, there are (rarely) players out of the top 20 by position with high potential who can get to the big board prior to senior year, with maximized development.
2) LP/Per combo. If either projects to 90+, or if in combination they project to 140+, they may be early entry candidates, if some other baseline conditions are met.
3) Ath/Spd/Def core. In general, a 270 combo in those 3 will put the player in range, if other conditions are met. Sometimes guards with 100/100 ath/def, but under 80 speed can sneak by off the big board, even if they surpass the 270.
4) Skill cores all project above 80. For guards, it’s per, ball handling, pass; for bigs it’s rebounding, block, and LP. Keep in mind, the fake NBA GMs value skill cores (especially LP and per) more than the HD community does.
5) Overall near 800. This is the least important of the indicators, but especially if one or more of the indicators above is true, this one can be worth looking at, especially if the player has no glaring weakness at his position.”
The player under discussion meets 3 and very nearly 4 of the criteria. My guess is, the player was on the big board for part or even most of the season, and Benis’s attribute suppression dropped him off. Not a bad play,but it doesn’t mean he isn’t going to be drafted. Players ahead of him chose to stay. The NBA called his number, and he said yes. That’s how it works. Benis pretends to have me blocked because of this, but it’s the truth: if this player surprises you by leaving, it’s user error.