The first league I joined, the previous owner had his advanced scouting budget set on 15, so I set mine to 19. The new league I just joined, the previous owner had his advanced scouting budget set to 0, so the most I can set it to is 10. I feel like I'm kinda screwed because I'm going to be trading a lot for prospects. 1. How do I project players potentials without advanced starting budget? 2. Is there a function? 3. Can I project players who have only played a half season? 4. Do players overalls progress predictably? 5. Do players individual ratings progress predictably? 6. What about DITRs?

For players with 3 years of experience or less, the only thing you can really do is look to see where they were drafted, if they were in the amateur draft. For players that have had more than 3 years of experience, it becomes more of a guessing game. By the time the position players get to be into their 4th season, 80% or so of their development has already happened. Pitchers sometimes tend to develop farther into their career.

BUT....Look to see if they are a Diamond in the Rough. When you open up their player card, look in the upper left corner of their picture. If you see the diamond, then they might develop much farther into their career than most players.

Of course, you can always decline to trade.

FYI I always set my Advance Scout budget to 0, because I have had many seasons of experience. So I have a fairly good feel of how a player will develop. For newer owners, I would recommend an Advance Scout budget of 14 or more. Then later you can pare that back as you get a better feel for the game.

Posted by bjschumacher on 9/20/2018 9:47:00 PM (view original):
For players with 3 years of experience or less, the only thing you can really do is look to see where they were drafted, if they were in the amateur draft. For players that have had more than 3 years of experience, it becomes more of a guessing game. By the time the position players get to be into their 4th season, 80% or so of their development has already happened. Pitchers sometimes tend to develop farther into their career.

BUT....Look to see if they are a Diamond in the Rough. When you open up their player card, look in the upper left corner of their picture. If you see the diamond, then they might develop much farther into their career than most players.

Of course, you can always decline to trade.

FYI I always set my Advance Scout budget to 0, because I have had many seasons of experience. So I have a fairly good feel of how a player will develop. For newer owners, I would recommend an Advance Scout budget of 14 or more. Then later you can pare that back as you get a better feel for the game.

That's why I'm pretty bummed I can only have 10. Looking to ship off veterans for prospects this year.

Take a players development in the their first full season of pro ball and double it and that will give you a general idea of what they will develop into (DITR's excluded). For example, if they gained 7 points in their first full season, they will gain roughly the same amount more the rest of their development.

Posted by strikeout26 on 9/20/2018 11:08:00 PM (view original):
Take a players development in the their first full season of pro ball and double it and that will give you a general idea of what they will develop into (DITR's excluded). For example, if they gained 7 points in their first full season, they will gain roughly the same amount more the rest of their development.

So if there in the draft, that would be draft to draft, right? Not draft to spring training?

You take it from the first ST listed on their cards, but I just remembered that I gave you somewhat bad advice since you are talking about trading for prospects. You can't see progression of players on other teams anymore. You used to be able to see it. This will only work for players currently on your team. My apologies.

Posted by strikeout26 on 9/20/2018 11:18:00 PM (view original):
You take it from the first ST listed on their cards, but I just remembered that I gave you somewhat bad advice since you are talking about trading for prospects. You can't see progression of players on other teams anymore. You used to be able to see it. This will only work for players currently on your team. My apologies.

Don't fret. So the only way is through advanced scouting?

No, most veteran owners, myself included, go 0 advanced. Once you get comfortable with player progression, advanced scouting becomes a waste of money.

Posted by strikeout26 on 9/21/2018 7:55:00 AM (view original):
No, most veteran owners, myself included, go 0 advanced. Once you get comfortable with player progression, advanced scouting becomes a waste of money.

How do those veteran owners project 2nd year players.

Just a very educated guess, based on experience. Even if you did have 20 in Advance Scouting, the projections are still just approximations. There are so many other factors that come into play, such as playing time, coaches, injuries, $$$ in training, etc.

Thanks, bj. I was trying to think of how to word that.

Here's why many owners, including me, go to 0 Advanced: First, progression patterns are relatively predictable. The game simply doesn't appear to have the odd player who develops say, twice as much as other players, with the exception of DiTRs (who you can see). Second, the fuzziness of projections exists to a degree that we feel already obscures the value of a player. Say you're trading for a player you see as projecting to 80 Power, he could actually end up at 70 Power anyway, which would be a significant difference in your valuation of him. Higher Advanced scouting doesn't conclusively solve this.

With 0 Advanced, I make deals based on two things: Knowing the trading patterns of the league I'm in, and knowing the tendencies of the individual owners. For instance, in one of my leagues the owners are ultra-conservative. Most of them almost never trade blue chip prospects. So if one of those guys is offering up a late first round, or second round prospect, I'm more likely to think the player is actually a fringe major leaguer or Rule 5 type player. In my other league, owners are more aggressive and more actual prospects get moved. The trades are more genuine, I have more confidence in the deals I see in that league.
As for knowing the tendencies of the individual owners, you can check the league history and see the trading patterns of individual owners. For instance, you can find the guys who always trade overpriced veterans for other teams' real prospects, and stay away from them.

Those two observations of the league itself give me an idea of whether to trust a prospect's draft status or IFA value. Because of my systematic distrust of projections on the player's card, I'm not concerned about the actual values they show. I just evaluate whether the player looks good enough to make the trade worthwhile, or a bust.