Up until the Kavanaugh brawl I would have agreed with you. I feel Republicans will benefit enough to offset the Democrats energized voters...and one other thing...we could see a repeat of 2016, where many Trump supporters were silent in polls. Their turnout was higher than anticipated. The Court issue is higher on their list than it is for Dems. Usually...
This from Nate Cohn, a Democrat pollster:
With so many opportunities to win just a few more seats, it’s easy to see why the Democrats are considered favorites. And with so many opportunities over all, it’s easy to imagine how the Democrats could gain 40 or more seats. Even modest late movement toward the Democrats would topple many additional Republicans and potentially put an entire additional tier of seats into play.
On the other hand, modest late movement toward the Republicans could give the party a chance to sweep a pretty long list of tossup districts. Any number of factors could push the race one way or another.
[…]
Polls from Quinnipiac, Emerson, IBD, Reuters/Ipsos, YouGov and Marist showed the Democratic edge on the generic ballot falling by an average of four points. Monmouth polls in Virginia’s 10th District and Pennsylvania’s First showed the Democrats falling by three points. And five Fox News polls of top Senate races showed the Democratic edge falling by an average of two points.
[…]
The possibility that the Kavanaugh nomination is helping Republicans in Republican-leaning areas is important because the fight for control of both the House and the Senate will be determined largely in Republican-leaning areas. This simple fact has always been the G.O.P.’s biggest advantage. If the electorate is polarized along the lines of recent presidential elections, as it was during the Obama presidency, Republicans could hold down their losses considerably.
Democrats have been considered clear favorites in the fight for House control because polls and special election results have made it seem that the electorate wouldn’t be so polarized, allowing them to compete in many Republican-leaning districts. But if Democrats can’t break through and actually carry the many Republican-leaning districts they’ve put into play, Republicans could stay highly competitive in the fight for House control and even survive a wave election.
Today’s House map is so favorable to Republicans that based on recent presidential election results, even a 2006- or 2010-type wave — even a rerun of the highly polarized Virginia governor’s and state legislative races last November — would yield only around a net-27 seats for Democrats, by our estimates. Yes, that would be enough for a majority, but it would be close enough that it wouldn’t take too much luck for Republicans to hold on.
The 2006 election is a particularly telling example. Democrats picked up 31 seats, not much more than Democrats need now, with a set of opportunities fairly similar to what the Democrats have today. And the Democratic gain was padded by many victories against Republicans embroiled in scandal. Without those gains, the Democrats might not have picked up the number of seats that Democrats need this year.
There’s another reason 2006 is a troubling example for Democrats: The Republicans avoided a total rout by winning around 20 districts by less than four points. It’s not hard to imagine something like that happening again. In fact, Republicans have led in 12 Upshot/Siena polls by less than four points already.
10/8/2018 10:35 PM (edited)