I know there has been some conversation but the threads are mostly old (I searched for the info) and didn't know if anything had changed. So the question is this. There is a 23 year old pitching prospect I'm being offered in a deal. Starting pitcher. Here are the projected key numbers for this guy:

88 OVR
28 DUR
94 STA
93 CON
83 MAKEUP
87 VSL
84 VSR
100 VEL
63 GB/FB
70 P1
66 P2
41 P3
51 P4
37 P5

So...good numbers but not overwhelming (in fact pretty average) pitch ratings. Will the splits/control offset that?

The other guy I could get is a reliever (I have spoken about him in another thread...asking about how to use higher stamina relievers) and his numbers, again, are:

85 OVR
79 DUR
91 MAKEUP
51 STA
82 CON
83 VSL
89 VSR
41 VEL
42 GB/FB
82 P1
72 P2
52 P3

So...the reliever has better pitchers (pitches 1/2/3 all grade better than the other guy) and they have otherwise similar-ish stuff (minus the stamina/durability...and the velocity, GB/FB)

So before I make a decision - which guy stands a better chance of major league success? The second guy is 25 (two years older) and he has a further gap between his current/potential than the first guy. So I'm not sure where the hiccup is in the 25 year olds development. They are both pretty much ML ready are very close, though. But the younger guy seems to be developing into his potential a little quicker.

All this to say...it has me looking at splits/pitch ratings/etc and wondering - can a guy with great control and splits be a great pitcher (or very good pitcher) with so-so pitches?

I’m interested in this answer.

Ignore the projected ratings; they are almost always wildly optimistic even if you spend $20M on advanced scouting. Show me the current ratings, the players' age, and the number of pro years (ie, the number of years since they were drafted/signed).

Yeah, there is a chance that they are both almost done developing. If the 23 year old was drafted as a college junior or senior then he has growth left, but if he was drafted/signed at 18, 19 or 20 he is almost done. The 25 year old is for sure almost done.

Posted by dedelman on 12/3/2018 9:25:00 AM (view original):
Ignore the projected ratings; they are almost always wildly optimistic even if you spend $20M on advanced scouting. Show me the current ratings, the players' age, and the number of pro years (ie, the number of years since they were drafted/signed).

Ok...here goes. So the first guy (projected to 88 OVR)

23 years old with 3 pro years. He was drafted from a community college at age 20.

Current ratings:

70 OVR
83 MAKEUP
89 STA
76 CON
67 VSL
61 VSR
88 VEL
42 GB/FB
60 P1
66 P2
41 P3
50 P4
24 P5

The second guy is 25 with 4 pro years. No draft history (this world has only completed 3 seasons - headed to year 4, so he was part of the original wave of players). Current numbers are:

66 OVR
74 DUR (including this as he's a reliever)
91 MAKEUP
46 STA
67 CON
62 VSL
64 VSR
30 VEL
24 GB/FB
82 P1
72 P2
52 P3

So...I guess the next question is how do you think these guys will develop in relation to projections?

Although the initial question is still something I'd be interested in opinions on (I am really trying to get to the bottom of the splits and the pitch quality - which is more important). But also any help that comes of this as far as development/projection is also great! Thanks!

The second guy is almost completely done developing and is a very marginal major league pitcher.

The first guy may or may not have another 2-3 points of development per category in him and is a very marginal major league pitcher, will improve to "marginal" if you're lucky.

Were either pitchers DITR's?

Posted by strikeout26 on 12/3/2018 11:34:00 AM (view original):
Were either pitchers DITR's?

The second guy appears to have been, yes.

Posted by dedelman on 12/3/2018 11:17:00 AM (view original):
The second guy is almost completely done developing and is a very marginal major league pitcher.

The first guy may or may not have another 2-3 points of development per category in him and is a very marginal major league pitcher, will improve to "marginal" if you're lucky.

Take Dedelman's assessment of pitcher 1 and apply it to pitcher 2 since he was a DITR.

As far as the splits vs. pitches debate, I rank them about equally. If you are mediocre in one area, you have to be great in the other. I have also noticed that the more pitches a guy has the better. I'll link a guy that has average splits and below average pitches, but he has 5 pitches and his pitch 5 is above 50. I keep him around because he keeps performing. He has a 1.23 WHIP and a 3.75 ERA in over 500 IP.

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerRatings.aspx?pid=7254113

Generally speaking a pitcher with high splits but low pitches (call him pitcher A) won't get hit often but will get hit hard when he does get hit. High pitches (especially multiple 80+ pitches) but low splits (call him pitcher B) means a guy will get hit frequently but rarely very hard. Either or both can be really valuable. Pitcher B will likely be more consistent, but pitcher A is more likely to be a Cy Young candidate than B if A is on for an extended period of time.

Both will not reach ML splits. I would not make the trade.

Posted by hockey1984 on 12/4/2018 10:05:00 AM (view original):
Both will not reach ML splits. I would not make the trade.

I passed on the trade. I have a guy in my system similar to the one guy (with the lower stamina) and was going to try and use them both as super relievers but I'll just promote my guy and use him as setupA.

More than anything - just intersting to learn about the ins and outs of judging players, how they develop and so on....thanks for all the input guys.

Posted by bobellis75 on 12/6/2018 4:56:00 PM (view original):

Posted by hockey1984 on 12/4/2018 10:05:00 AM (view original):
Both will not reach ML splits. I would not make the trade.

I passed on the trade. I have a guy in my system similar to the one guy (with the lower stamina) and was going to try and use them both as super relievers but I'll just promote my guy and use him as setupA.

More than anything - just intersting to learn about the ins and outs of judging players, how they develop and so on....thanks for all the input guys.

Best advice I can give is this:

Typically players will stop gaining ratings after 4 years. You might get a bump of 1 point here or there. Also, their growth will go down from year to year, it'll be between 7 and 11 points for their first year if they are high school (I don't know as much about college because for 30 seasons all I drafted was HS until they changed the scouting). There are exceptions to this rule but they are typically because a player got injured or if they got Diamond in the Rough status.

Pitchers can be good with lots of different ratings and can be bad with a lot of different ratings. Sadly this one is just kind of what 'feels right'.

I thought https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerRatings.aspx?pid=8469700 (Danny Mulhallnd) was going to be decent but he has been exceptional so far. Decent splits but the pitches have made up for it.

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerStats.aspx?pid=7449534 (Jemier Johnson) has been typically good for me (Except this year) with below average splits but very good pitches.

I don't currently have a guy with good splits but bad pitches but typically I'll try to avoid guys with pitches below 50 unless its their 4th and or 5th pitch. Again, if their first two pitches are above average (80+) I can usually ignore their other pitches.