If a starting pitcher has 3 or 4 pitches, does it matter? For example, even if a guy has good numbers and even good pitches, but he only has 3, is he at a clear disadvantage to a guy with 4 pitches?

For a better example:

Imagine 2 players with identical stamina and control and splits, would 4 average pitches be better or 3 above average pitches?

What's average? And yes pitches do matter.

Hypothetically: (again, all attributes not listed are identical between pitchers aka stamina, control, velocity, etc.)

Pitcher A is: Pitch 1: 77 Pitch 2: 74 pitch 3: 68 (no pitch 4)
Pitcher B is: Pitch 1: 81 Pitch 2: 68 Pitch 3: 55 Pitch 4: 51

Which pitcher would you prefer and why?

I would have no preference there given all else is equal given what you provided.

Posted by notrekane on 12/19/2018 1:07:00 PM (view original):
Hypothetically: (again, all attributes not listed are identical between pitchers aka stamina, control, velocity, etc.)

Pitcher A is: Pitch 1: 77 Pitch 2: 74 pitch 3: 68 (no pitch 4)
Pitcher B is: Pitch 1: 81 Pitch 2: 68 Pitch 3: 55 Pitch 4: 51

Which pitcher would you prefer and why?

I have seen 3 pitch SPs be good, however, my own personal experience has been such that I prefer not to have them.

In your example B is better simply because every one of his pitches are above average. Average or "benchmark" for pitches is something like:

P1 = 82
P2 = 68
P3 = 55
P4 = 40
P5 = 25

I believe if none of your pitches fall below those "benchmarks" the pitcher has a much better chance of being successful.

Agree with Brian - negligible difference between the two pitchers mentioned above. However, I will say that each pitch down the line has diminishing returns. So the reason that I think the pitchers have a negligible difference is more because Pitcher B has a better pitch 1 than pitcher A. However, since Pitcher A makes up for it with a respectable pitch 2 and pitch 3, I think they are pretty even.

Another hypothetical could be:

Pitcher A: Pitch1=90; Pitch2=80; Pitch3=70
Pitcher B: Pitch1=85; Pitch2=75; Pitch3=70; Pitch4=65

In this case, I would take pitcher A. Although Pitcher B has more pitches and all of them are respectable. Pitcher A has a definite out #1pitch and an above average second pitch. Some may disagree, but I am definitely going with Pitcher A in the hypothetical that i posted above.

Also, I know in real life that guys that only have two pitches, should not pitch many consecutive innings, once they get through the lineup more than once and batter's get to see his small repertoire, they will hammer him. I am not sure if this is the case in the sim - maybe a more tenured owner can comment. I have seen DITR players turn from RP to SP with the DITR bump, but they still only have two pitches. Can a pitcher with only two pitches pitch more than three innings in a game without getting shelled?

I just went and looked at some of the best relief pitchers in some of the worlds I am in and yes - even pitchers with only two pitchers can dominate for 3+ innings per game.

Average pitch is scaled a certain way for 2- 3- 4- and 5- pitch guys. According to your example, the game slightly favors a 3-pitch with 73.5 avg pitch over a 4-pitch with 63.75 avg pitch. Mchalesarmy did research in the past on pitch stats

Mchalesarmy did research in the past on pitch stats

I am curious to know what the outcome was. Was he able to confirm his scaling was accurate? Do you know if one pitch held more weight than others. I have read that the rating of pitch 1 is more highly weighted than pitch 2 and pitch 2 is more highly weighted than pitch 3 and so on.

Posted by tlowster on 12/19/2018 5:40:00 PM (view original):

Mchalesarmy did research in the past on pitch stats

I am curious to know what the outcome was. Was he able to confirm his scaling was accurate? Do you know if one pitch held more weight than others. I have read that the rating of pitch 1 is more highly weighted than pitch 2 and pitch 2 is more highly weighted than pitch 3 and so on.

This has been a source of contention over the years, because the answers from the programmers have not been consistent.

In one dev chat they said the order of pitches didn't matter and that the algorithm used an average of all pitches, while later, in another dev chat the answer was what you allude to, that P1 was more heavily weighted and was considered an "out" pitch, and the other pitches were weighted less heavy as it went down the line like you mention.

I guess it could be a combination of both, where the pitches are more heavily weighted from 1-5 and THEN averaged.??

Posted by tlowster on 12/19/2018 3:32:00 PM (view original):
I just went and looked at some of the best relief pitchers in some of the worlds I am in and yes - even pitchers with only two pitchers can dominate for 3+ innings per game.

So, every pitcher has at least two pitches.
If both of them are good to great, (say 90/70 or so) AND he has the STAM to do it, there is no reason he couldn't be successful the 2nd time through the order.

I agree they have not given consistent explanations, but it seems like whatever reference they made to "having an out pitch" is clumsily worded at best and completely wrong at worst. There seems to be no difference between 85-70-55-40 and 70-85-55-40 or 70-85-40-55. Nobody really knows for sure what pitches mean, but at the end of the day it's better to have good ones than bad ones regardless of what they really mean

Guessing game, eh? Trail and error is tough in a situation like this because it takes a lot of work to find similar rated guys that were used in a similar manner.

I would think, at the very least, that there would be a pitch count or percentage of pitches that get pitched for each game. For instance, if a guy has 3 pitches, I doubt each pitch gets thrown 33 percent of the time. I would assume that it would be more of a 50-30-20. I am guessing based off of the fact that I have had a few pitchers that have had 80 (pitch1), 75 (pitch2), and 40 (pitch3) and have still been effective. My assumption would be that if they threw that 3rd pitch a lot, they would get hammered.

I suppose the other side of that argument could be that the sim knows that if the pitchers 4th pitch is an 85 and his 2nd pitch is a 60, it would throw the 4th pitch more than the 2nd??? I am not sure how that works.

Finally, if a pitcher has four pitches and they are all 85+, how much more effective is he than a pitcher that has two pitches or three pitches that are 85+?

Posted by tlowster on 12/19/2018 8:30:00 PM (view original):
I would think, at the very least, that there would be a pitch count or percentage of pitches that get pitched for each game. For instance, if a guy has 3 pitches, I doubt each pitch gets thrown 33 percent of the time. I would assume that it would be more of a 50-30-20. I am guessing based off of the fact that I have had a few pitchers that have had 80 (pitch1), 75 (pitch2), and 40 (pitch3) and have still been effective. My assumption would be that if they threw that 3rd pitch a lot, they would get hammered.

I suppose the other side of that argument could be that the sim knows that if the pitchers 4th pitch is an 85 and his 2nd pitch is a 60, it would throw the 4th pitch more than the 2nd??? I am not sure how that works.

Finally, if a pitcher has four pitches and they are all 85+, how much more effective is he than a pitcher that has two pitches or three pitches that are 85+?

That premise was "confirmed" (considering their other answers, take it for what it's worth) by the developers some time ago.

That is, he'll throw his better pitches more often than the bad ones.
Another thing that can help here is a catcher with a strong PC rating, because he is going to call for that poor P4 much less frequently.


As far as the # of pitches at 85+ or whatever, I think the more the better.
I like to add the numbers "above baseline" to determine my own P rating for the pitcher.