Projection Question Topic

mullycj
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I thought I understood the projection mechanics so here is a puzzle for you experts. Cannot understand why my projection is so far below my RPI, especially compared to a team such as this : (Smith World projection report)

My Team - S Dakota Projection = 28 with RPI = 15
N. Central mullycj 15 38 9-2 2-1 7-1 0-0 9-1 Lock

Compared to - Bellarmine Projection = 14 with RPI = 16
GLV douglasdao 16 17 39 9-2 3-1 6-1 0-0 8-2 Lock

That's a 14 projection spot discrepancy for two teams that seem identical to me.

Thanks
12/27/2018 11:49 AM
pdxblazerfan
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Only 11 games have gone by and projections are just starting at the 10-game mark. They usually normalize over time. The larger the sample size of games, the better the projections are
12/27/2018 11:54 AM
tecwrg
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Q: What is the RPI?
A:

The RPI (Rating Percentage Index) is a measure of strength of schedule, and how a team does against that schedule. It does not consider margin of victory. It is used by the WCAA as one of the factors in deciding which teams to invite to the National Tournament and where to seed them.

The basic formula is 25% team winning percentage (WP), 50% opponents' average winning percentage (OWP), and 25% opponents' opponents' average winning percentage (OOWP). When calculating winning percentage (WP), the RPI weights a road win as 1.4 x a normal win, a home loss as 1.4 x a normal loss, a road loss as 0.6 x a normal loss and a home win as 0.6 x a normal win - neutral site games are not adjusted (weighted at 1.0).

Q: How are the at-large bids for the National Tournament determined? What about the seeding?
A:

National Tournament selection and seeding both rely on the same logic.

The logic for ranking teams for the postseason essentially calculates a score for each game on the team's schedule. This game score is determined by the following components:

  • Result (win or loss)
  • RPI rank of the opponent
  • Top 25 rank of the opponent (this rank is actually calculated and used for all teams, even beyond the top 25)
  • Score margin of the game
  • Location (home, away, or neutral court)
There is also consideration given to record over the final 10 games as well as conference tournament performance.
12/27/2018 12:28 PM (edited)
tecwrg
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So while there are some similarities between RPI and the projection report, there are some differences. In particular, scoring margin of games is considered in the PR where it's not in RPI.

That may be what's causing the discrepancy that you're seeing.

I'm also seeing similar discrepancies in some of my worlds across different divisions, even during conference tournament time.
12/27/2018 12:28 PM
wronoj
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It’s because they are ranked and you aren’t. That means that before any games started, the system thought they were better than you.

If tou stay similar the rest of rest of the season, you’ll likely pull much closer to them.
12/27/2018 1:16 PM
Benis
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Posted by wronoj on 12/27/2018 1:16:00 PM (view original):
It’s because they are ranked and you aren’t. That means that before any games started, the system thought they were better than you.

If tou stay similar the rest of rest of the season, you’ll likely pull much closer to them.
I'm not sure this is true.. Do you know where you heard this?
12/27/2018 3:04 PM
Benis
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Posted by mullycj on 12/27/2018 11:50:00 AM (view original):
I thought I understood the projection mechanics so here is a puzzle for you experts. Cannot understand why my projection is so far below my RPI, especially compared to a team such as this : (Smith World projection report)

My Team - S Dakota Projection = 28 with RPI = 15
N. Central mullycj 15 38 9-2 2-1 7-1 0-0 9-1 Lock

Compared to - Bellarmine Projection = 14 with RPI = 16
GLV douglasdao 16 17 39 9-2 3-1 6-1 0-0 8-2 Lock

That's a 14 projection spot discrepancy for two teams that seem identical to me.

Thanks
Your loss to a 114 RPI sim is way worse than either of his 2 losses.

12/27/2018 3:08 PM
gdog13cavs
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Projection report in particular places a lot of emphasis on quality of wins, and bad losses. He has 2 RPI-top 50 wins, and 6 top 100. You only have 1 RPI-top 50 win, and 2 RPI top 100. His losses are also better, given your loss to the 100+ RPI team.
12/27/2018 9:06 PM
topdogggbm
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I've found the games against the top 100 to be the major factor here. Because i've had similar questions as OP many many times. 6-2 in this case is a big big difference.

It seems to me that the system doesn't appreciate a resume with 5 wins against the top 5, and 3 wins against teams in the 90s range..... as much as a resume with 10 wins against teams in the 80s and 90s range.

Not that i've seen that example. But it doesn't put near enough weight in the big wins, and it puts too much weight on wins against the 50-100 range in my opinion
12/28/2018 9:21 AM
Benis
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Posted by gdog13cavs on 12/27/2018 9:06:00 PM (view original):
Projection report in particular places a lot of emphasis on quality of wins, and bad losses. He has 2 RPI-top 50 wins, and 6 top 100. You only have 1 RPI-top 50 win, and 2 RPI top 100. His losses are also better, given your loss to the 100+ RPI team.
I think this is spot on
12/28/2018 11:34 AM
mullycj
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12/28/2018 12:01 PM
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