We should talk about that example, because it really proves the reverse point, and is a good example of a D3 staying in a battle because the D1 teams allowed it. If a D1 team has prioritized the player early, the D3 would likely have moved on. If the D1 team had a slightly less than enormous AP deficit compared to the D3, hypothetically say merely 1000 rather than 1200, the D3 team would have been held out of signing range. If the player wasn’t a good preference match for the D3, and a mediocre one for the D1, the preference profile would have enhanced the D1 visits enough to lock the D3 out. Everything lined up for the D3, who gambled big, and still barely scratched into a 3-way. 99 times out of 100, this isn’t even a battle, because the D1 moves in earlier (or not at all) and harder, and/or the D3 gives up sooner. That’s why there’s one example from 2+ years ago that still gets recycled as the *preposterous* illustration.
But even as the extreme outlier it is, how unrealistic is it, really? Real life recruits don’t have division pools they’re assigned to. The vast majority of NCAA athletes will never make money playing their sport, and most of them know it. Plenty of players end up on lower division teams, not because they weren’t recruited by D1 schools, but because they just liked something better about another school, and weren’t particularly swayed by the notion of playing D1 ball for its own sake.
There are lots of gameplay reasons why the *possibiliity* of lower division teams winning higher division players should be maintained *if* recruiting is going to continue to be a resource-based commodity game. This outlying result, as with literally all the others, is the net result of choices that players made. The issue is not the game, it’s the way players are choosing to play it.